Stochastic terrorism
ANTIFA - Rioting and Destroying America
- Thread starter gwb-trading
- Start date
Stochastic terrorism
Indeed.
At some point we should probably take a step back and take a look at these protests in context of history...
I grew up in a period in the 1970s where every night on TV the newscast showed riots. The basic attitude in the suburbs was "they can do whatever they want in the big cities (burn, loot, etc.) as long as they don't come here" This attitude was prevalent across 90%+ of the country.... these riots and shooting between blacks, whites, KKK, Communists, etc. was not my business unless it impacts me. It did however drive fear into communities and drove the election of politicians promising "law and order".
We have entered a period in the U.S. history which appears to be eerily similar except now we have social media to provide more direct news of the riots (i.e. videos, etc.) and can be used by protestors to promote their messages. The vast majority of the U.S. (over 95%+) do not actively participate in the riots/protests -- they may lean to supporting the causes of one side or another but they are not out in the streets. In regards to the violent riots the majority simply think that "as long as they don't come here it's not my problem". If the BLM/ANTIFA crowd wants to mix it up with the alt-right crowd in the middle of Portland -- "let them go do that, not my problem. In fact it might reduce the overall count of violent idiots".
In summary, the current situation involves rioters burning and looting cities, or opposing armed violent protestors mixing it up. The majority of America is like "so what". They want no involvement and want it to stay away from their homes. Most rational Americans believe both sides of violent rioters are to blame for the shootings we have seen recently. In many cases one side or the other (or both) is seeking the other out to cause conflict (e.g. Portland where a caravan drove deliberately into the city). Sadly I expect we will see more deadly shootings at these "protests" over the upcoming weeks as left-wing gangs and right-wing militia mix it up -- while the police do little to control the situation.
However if the violence escalates to the suburbs then we are going to see a new group of Americans get involved -- these are armed people protecting their homes and businesses. They will represent a vast cross section of Americans and have firm support from the 90% of Americans who will simply be sick and tired of the violence by the time the situation reaches this escalation point. This is the "tipping point" where wide-scale chaos will erupt that police cannot control. You will have situations ranging from vigilante homeowner associations to armed hired security --- all who will shoot first and sort things out later (with few legal consequences).
Of course the politicians play off of this violence and use it in election campaigns. This is a just a re-play of history. We have Donald Trump running on "law & order"; while Biden runs on some type of "unity" agenda trying to ignore the violence while embracing the protest racial agenda. The reality is that the more violence that occurs then the more likely that "law & order" candidates get elected by driving fear into the majority of the population. (How do you think Nixon was elected?). Today, every night of violent rioting simply serves to drive thousands of more votes in swing states to Donald Trump.
Will the election of Biden stop the riots? Most likely not at all. A moderate like Biden will not appease the rioters -- especially since the rioters recognize there are no consequences for their actions. Biden will be "presidential", talk about unity, beg for peaceful protests, and try to calm things down -- but the ANTIFA rioters (which I need to separate out from the peaceful daytime BLM protestors) are not interested in propping up the current system - they want to tear everything down. As some point to control the situation Biden will need to have the national guard and feds sent into many cities.
Will the election of Trump stop the riots? Most likely not at all either. His election would embolden right-wing militias leading to more deliberate violence as both sides mix it up -- greatly increasing deaths and mob disorder. His election would also likely increase ANTIFA action in cities. Trump's election would be seen as public backing of his "law & order" agenda and would suffice to lend support for him taking federal level action to send feds, national guard, and military support to cities enduring violent riots.
"In summary, the current situation involves rioters burning and looting cities, or opposing armed violent protestors mixing it up."
You have never seen cities burned or looted. What you have seen is orders of magnitude less.
You have never seen cities burned or looted. What you have seen is orders of magnitude less.
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I'm certain a Biden win will stop the riots. Whether or not they rise up again will depend on Biden's response after the next questionable cop killing of a civilian.
I'm certain a Trump win will escalate the situation, if they are still rioting in November.
Trump (and his supporters) have the wrong approach towards protesters of police misconduct. Nobody is going to continue being victims of both police misconduct, and apathetic/complicit cons. suburbanites and their politicians.
I won't get into my opinions of asymmetric civil warfare in an urban vs suburban theater. But I think suburbanites are more vulnerable than they realize.
There will not be a Biden win------Turn your sets off there.
You might be right, but the question is are voters inclined to vote for Trump going to allow themselves to be intimidated to vote for Biden by a bunch of thugs? I am guessing no. And is the "empathetic" Biden going to be perceived as the weak Biden in light of the recent violence?
I regards to the election scenarios...
If Biden is elected I believe that we will continue to see low grade rioting/looting continue in cities and flare up every time a new "excuse" (police shooting) occurs. We will probably see a reduction of ANTIFA versus right-wing militia fighting because Biden is likely to have his feds target the right-wing groups who confront the ANTIFA/BLM protestors. However the rioting/looting in cities will continue under Biden for a significant period of time while the protestors recognize there are limited consequences. After a couple years of riots it will reach the point politically where Biden will need to send in the fed and national guard across many cities if he wants any chance of being re-elected.
If Trump is elected we are likely to see a flare up in the violence as more ANTIFA versus right-wing militia confrontations break out. However Trump will have an "law & order" mandate from being re-elected and take steps to send in federal support to eliminate the rioting & conflicts. Of course, targeting ANTIFA more than the right-wing militias. In summary IMO the election of Trump will flare up worse violence but it will last a shorter period of time.
Of course -- all of the above is just projection. I may totally be wrong. It is hard to predict these type of things in an environment where it just takes a cop somewhere having a bad day to suddenly cause a national outbreak of violence.
In regards to suburbanites being more vulnerable than they realize... I agree that in most U.S. suburbs especially in states where households have limited gun ownership and depend on police protection -- there is significant vulnerability. But the situation varies greatly across the U.S. In North Carolina where many suburbs have over a 50% gun ownership rate and 20% former military as residents -- the situation is tilted in favor of the suburbanites.
Therein is the disconnect.
You think it's thugs trying to intimidate; they think they are fighting against police misconduct.
Weigh those two motivations. One is like road rage over being cut off; the other is like seeking revenge on someone that attacked a good friend.
No one really wants to fight to the death over road rage; but angry people will gladly fight to the death over a loved one.
The protesters are motivated because they have experienced, or know someone dear who has experienced police misconduct--from profiling on up (assault, rape, murder, framed for misdemeanors/crimes, other civil rights violations).
And until it stops, things will get worse. The emotional momentum is too strong at this point. And it won't stop until cons and their politicians take it seriously--or we reach critical mass and just let the shit play itself out.
Their goal was changing the police. But by cons unilaterally supporting all police, regardless; and by being dismissive of what's obvious to the whole world as abuse; cons have made it about themselves as well. It was never about cons until cons left their suburban homes to defend what the world sees as misconduct. Now cons are worried that the shit they helped perpetuate may adverse affect suburbia and their families--not to mention the stability of the nation.
Cons have twisted BLM to mean other lives don't matter.
Cons have twisted complaints about bad police into complaints about all police.
Cons have twisted defunding the police to mean getting rid of all manner of law enforcement.
Chickens eventually come home to roost, especially when you take victims of misconduct; and victimize them against like I've mentioned already. Wouldn't that piss you off?
Just my opinions.
Obama may be available to settle the protestors while Harris who should be doing it is wading through the aftermath of the worst handover in presidential history in early 2021.
I wonder if an ex-president can take a cabinet position, presumably he can be skipped in the order of succession? (maybe not) Just a thought
There are many options, it will quiet down quickly same as any escalation does when the man with the sane sounding voice starts to speak to the customer(s).
Trump is rattling cages, just stop doing that is more than half the battle.