anticipating market moves when patterns break

[padutrader]

Patterns only work within the right context

damn right
a reversal pattern in the middle of a bigger range- and this is missed even by the most experienced of traders- has no meaning because there is NOTHING TO REVERSE.

but context will work even without a pattern or a set up.

so why search for something that is not necessary?

the things traders do is really funny :chasing their tails.

do not get me wrong: i too have done exactly that for 14 years

 

[padutrader]

context will fail sometimes so risk management is key.

context does not fail....but it can change.....since you do not know when it will change you assume it wont and put a stop in such a place that it will trigger if it context changes.

if you put your stop right and you have taken a position on the assumption it is a range then if the stop get hit you know it is now a trend so you can adjust your assumptions and your position for that :reverse !.

you can lose money being right so never feel you have done wrong........

trading is that simple but do not get overconfident....it is NOT easy.

 

[Overnight]

...

so why search for something that is not necessary?

the things traders do is really funny :chasing their tails.

do not get me wrong: i too have done exactly that for 14 years...

if you put your stop right and you have taken a position on the assumption it is a range then if the stop get hit you know it is now a trend so you can adjust your assumptions and your position for that :reverse !.

you can lose money being right so never feel you have done wrong........

trading is that simple but do not get overconfident....it is NOT easy.

You had better stow that shit right quick, because you are getting too big for your britches. Just because you met a target profit in a prop firm eval does not mean you passed the eval. You need to be humble, and not feel the need to give everyone advice on how to do anything just because you met a bullet point on a checklist of trading.

You told me on the fucking Skype that you were not here trying to give anyone advice. Yet that is exactly what you are doing, over and over and over again.

Follow your own advice, kid. "...but do not get overconfident....it is NOT easy."

 

[padutrader]

You had better stow that shit right quick, because you are getting too big for your britches. Just because you met a target profit in a prop firm eval does not mean you passed the eval. You need to be humble, and not feel the need to give everyone advice on how to do anything just because you met a bullet point on a checklist of trading.

You told me on the fucking Skype that you were not here trying to give anyone advice. Yet that is exactly what you are doing, over and over and over again.

Follow your own advice, kid. "...but do not get overconfident....it is NOT easy."

FOR A BEGINNER IT IS NOT EASY

 

[padutrader]

target profit in a prop firm eval does not mean you passed the eval.

it does mean another one day of trading and it will mean exactly that.

are qualified to judge me or anyone else

 

[easymon1]

so for example when i as a new trader look at a head and shoulders patternit forms into a reasonably normal pattern ok im still following i know whats happeningthen boom one shoulder is lower than other or the head is too big or too small or too pointy or shoulders look like 1980s businesswomen suit shoulder suddenly does something unexpected. and im out of the game because i dont know whats happening past that break of pattern..

If you're in a POTENTIAL Head and Shoulders setup while the right shoulder is still forming then you would be in the trade before a setup trigger has occured.
That's easy enough to fix..."wait for the pattern to complete".
Head and Shoulders is a setup with clear-cut rules that lend themselves well to specific and accurate stats-taking by the serious diligent student of the markets.
You could go find a dozen H&S setups and write down the -Stop, -Entry, -Exit and see if this setup warrants further consideration. If it does then continue your stats taking on 88 more setups. With stats on 100 triggered setups, you'll have a good idea of whether this is a viable setup. After you have done this procedure for a dozen setups, you will see some perform better than others. Overall market conditions will affect the performance of setups over time as market cycles evolve. ...Or you can just wing it. Your choice.

How to trade head and shoulders pattern for mute9003 - https://duckduckgo.com/?q=How+to+trade+head+and+shoulders+pattern+for+mute9003&t=h_&ia=web

How to Trade the Pattern
It's important that traders wait for the pattern to complete. This is so because a pattern may not develop at all or a partially developed pattern may not complete in the future. Partial or nearly completed patterns should be watched, but no trades should be made until the pattern breaks the neckline.

In the head and shoulders pattern, we are waiting for price action to move lower than the neckline after the peak of the right shoulder. For the inverse head and shoulders, we wait for price movement above the neckline after the right shoulder is formed.- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/121201.asp

 

[Sprout]

in my previous thread i posted about predicting market moves which i tink was wrong definition to use
was watching RockzFX dude on youtube and he is actually very good at explaining the basics in noob language.(not promoting him just sharing what i found that helped me)

he said to anticipate market move which made alot more sense instead of predict.

on that note (sip of english breakfast tea)

even harder part is to formulate proper question for your problem
if nothing is certain in the market not even patterns how the hell do i anticipate market if head and shoulders pattern for example could go up down sideways grow another shoulder or never complete at all..

so for example when i as a new trader look at a head and shoulders pattern
it forms into a reasonably normal pattern ok im still following i know whats happening
then boom one shoulder is lower than other or the head is too big or too small or too pointy or shoulders look like 1980s businesswomen suit
shoulder suddenly does something unexpected. and im out of the game because i dont know whats happening past that break of pattern..
thats where better traders seem to have an upper hand. they have a much better idea of what caused that move and where it might go next. and that unfortunately is almost never gets covered in youtube videos.
so what im trying to figure out where do i learn that part, what to anticipate when patterns break
i think this is my main bottleneck at the moment
srry for long ass post. this forum is all i got as far as my mentorship goes

It helps to do multi-timeframe analysis. A long trend and h&s forming on the 30m can be “anticipated” to either;
1)continue or
2)change

by observing a faster timeframe like the 5m.

 

[David's faith]

Most trends arent textbook plays today. They tend to be uglier the more algos are on it

 

[Handle123]

If you're in a POTENTIAL Head and Shoulders setup while the right shoulder is still forming then you would be in the trade before a setup trigger has occured.
That's easy enough to fix..."wait for the pattern to complete".
Head and Shoulders is a setup with clear-cut rules that lend themselves well to specific and accurate stats-taking by the serious diligent student of the markets.
You could go find a dozen H&S setups and write down the -Stop, -Entry, -Exit and see if this setup warrants further consideration. If it does then continue your stats taking on 88 more setups. With stats on 100 triggered setups, you'll have a good idea of whether this is a viable setup. After you have done this procedure for a dozen setups, you will see some perform better than others. Overall market conditions will affect the performance of setups over time as market cycles evolve. ...Or you can just wing it. Your choice.

How to trade head and shoulders pattern for mute9003 - https://duckduckgo.com/?q=How+to+trade+head+and+shoulders+pattern+for+mute9003&t=h_&ia=web

How to Trade the Pattern
It's important that traders wait for the pattern to complete. This is so because a pattern may not develop at all or a partially developed pattern may not complete in the future. Partial or nearly completed patterns should be watched, but no trades should be made until the pattern breaks the neckline.

In the head and shoulders pattern, we are waiting for price action to move lower than the neckline after the peak of the right shoulder. For the inverse head and shoulders, we wait for price movement above the neckline after the right shoulder is formed.- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/121201.asp

View attachment 274192

I agree with parts of your post. Please remember when we post sites, they give a general easiest definition of patterns, but H&S patterns can go way past of those patterns. Most traders do not have stats of last 5 days of day session upswing and downswing, it gives an idea of anticipated volatility, on average how far must an instrument travel when there is an expected turn. In my case, until ES travels 90% of upswing average, H&S patterns against current trend are ignored. Stats show me percentages of success are low if under swing ave.

H&S top is failure to make new highs in basic terms, plus can be complex where multiple right shoulders.

There are many areas to enter for H&S but I don't do neckline, never made sense to wait so long. After entry I use time stops, so many bars to take profit or target or protective stop changed breakeven + a tick. I have learned good trades take off in expected direction quickly or Grab small scalp.

 

[easymon1]

I agree with parts of your post. Please remember when we post sites, they give a general easiest definition of patterns, but H&S patterns can go way past of those patterns. Most traders do not have stats of last 5 days of day session upswing and downswing, it gives an idea of anticipated volatility, on average how far must an instrument travel when there is an expected turn. In my case, until ES travels 90% of upswing average, H&S patterns against current trend are ignored. Stats show me percentages of success are low if under swing ave.

H&S top is failure to make new highs in basic terms, plus can be complex where multiple right shoulders.

There are many areas to enter for H&S but I don't do neckline, never made sense to wait so long. After entry I use time stops, so many bars to take profit or target or protective stop changed breakeven + a tick. I have learned good trades take off in expected direction quickly or Grab small scalp.

According to the vast majority of information out there the Classic entry on a Head and Shoulders is at the break of the neckline.
You have modified your approach after due diligence.

Imagine the odds that the OP has done even the scantest test of a dozen or so occurances of H&S patterns, much less taken stats and analyzed 100 occurances. Consider your audience. Mute9003 might need to walk before he runs. He may need to benchmark his setups before he trades them. You have not only benchmarked the H&S but found methods to customize it to work better than off the shelf for you. Good on you.