Another thing we can say with absolute certainty is that the models and experts have been so completely wrong that we can conclude there are no models worth a crap and that there are no experts
Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu
- Thread starter gwb-trading
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I disagree with this. Many models have been remarkably accurate. Especially those using adaptive analytics that alter the results based on changes in the mitigation strategy as the responses evolve.
Funny, reminds me of a Morgan Stanley call I was on at the start of this. Someone asked them why their models showed a much more rosey picture than the ones circulated by the health "experts". They responded "When the health experts are wrong, you never hear about it. They just change their models and everyone accepts it. When we're wrong, we lose hundreds of millions of dollars. Place your bet accordingly."
Adaptive models.
"Its going to rain tomorrow".
Wake up without a cloud in the sky.
"I've adapted my model to say it will be sunny today."
ITT, models aren't allowed to adjust projections based on preventive measures taken.
The models showing 2 million deaths assumed NO MITIGATION MEASURES
What mitigation measures has nyc taken? Subways running, grocery stores packed everyday. It's all bullshit. 2 million projection was always a joke.
So 43 states have stay at home orders.... including NY. And you are trying to claim there are no mitigation measures. Unbelievable.
I live in nyc. Subways are packed everyday at rush hour, always were. Grocery stores are packed everyday, shoulder to shoulder. The 6 feet bullshit rule is only applied outside the store while waiting to get in. Home Depot is open. Every major chain is open, except the small coffee shop they shut down. You're an idiot if you think nyc is some light switch they just shut off.