Wow someone on ET actually knows Nassim Taleb!
I am impressed. To us peasants, he is royalty.
Another Thread on Nassim Taleb - COVID19 Pandemic Isn't A Black Swan
- Thread starter ironchef
- Start date
I am impressed. To us peasants, he is royalty.
don't lump us peasants into the same basket
I read all his books. Make sense but hard to trade what he preached. I tried hunting black swans but only able to catch a few ugly ducklings.
Trading according to what he preaches is like having a survival compound for nuclear disaster. Super expensive to build, super expensive to maintain, losing money x% of the time but only able to allow you to survive this ONE time when everybody else will be dead. You having a windfall of profit when everybody is piss poor, jumping out of the window, declaring bankrupt... (This is probably why Michael Burry immediately closed his hedge fund after his Big Short success?)
Is it really worth it to lose all those money just for this one chance of making a windfall? I dunno. To me it's more like a Martingale system in another form. You keep betting on the potential of a Black Swan until you make it big by making back all of the losses/potential profit that you gave up when a Black Swan finally rolls around but if the Black Swan never happens, you keep on betting and keep on losing.
Last edited:
OK, you are in the rich basket, me in the poor house.
Pretty clearly a narc. Unfortunately as we see all too clearly at the national level, while all narcs can be destructive, rich narcs can be incredibly so.
Not all of us poors follow charlatans.OK, you are in the rich basket, me in the poor house.