Another Straight Line Analysis Journal
- Thread starter BonScott
- Start date
Friday 10th October 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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I haven't been trading because I have a lot of work to do to get my plan into shape, and get myself into the zone. Today I observed for most of the day, and put on one proper trade where I could accept the risk, and one nothing trade, which was just jumping on the moving train of the trend.
1. Before the open we have a little fakeout, and then a breakout with
retracement to the previous support level. This is a possible point for a short. I have no plans to trade before the open, and I would need to test many more of these before deciding to use it in my trading. However, I do understand the reason people use it, as it is an area where support potentially becomes resistance.
2. On the rise up we didn't get a retracement until 30 points had passed. Not the best place to start going long. The 30 points look like nothing when compressed with the full extent of the days range.
3. There is a retracement here, but the stop loss is too high for me, and I would have been stopped out, on the instant reversal after failing to break the swing low.
4. I entered a short after we broke through the overnight low and retraced to close below it. While the price has travelled a long way from the top, we have no visible resistance below this for a long while. The stop risk was acceptable so I put on a short. The trade was stopped out when I moved the stop down after the trade had travelled 5 points. I can accept this while I am learning to trade.
5. I re-entered because of the power behind the fall. This kind of trade isn't in the plan, and will not be in the plan, unless I can develop a consistant reason for re-entry. I just did it based on my previous experience, and some excel testing, to make a few points before the weekend. It was stopped out again for a gain of a few points.
After this, there is a continuation of retracements on the way down, followed by a number of retracements on the way back up to double top at the midpoint of the day. All this I can trade another day, at the moment I have to go work on the plan.
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I haven't been trading because I have a lot of work to do to get my plan into shape, and get myself into the zone. Today I observed for most of the day, and put on one proper trade where I could accept the risk, and one nothing trade, which was just jumping on the moving train of the trend.
1. Before the open we have a little fakeout, and then a breakout with
retracement to the previous support level. This is a possible point for a short. I have no plans to trade before the open, and I would need to test many more of these before deciding to use it in my trading. However, I do understand the reason people use it, as it is an area where support potentially becomes resistance.
2. On the rise up we didn't get a retracement until 30 points had passed. Not the best place to start going long. The 30 points look like nothing when compressed with the full extent of the days range.
3. There is a retracement here, but the stop loss is too high for me, and I would have been stopped out, on the instant reversal after failing to break the swing low.
4. I entered a short after we broke through the overnight low and retraced to close below it. While the price has travelled a long way from the top, we have no visible resistance below this for a long while. The stop risk was acceptable so I put on a short. The trade was stopped out when I moved the stop down after the trade had travelled 5 points. I can accept this while I am learning to trade.
5. I re-entered because of the power behind the fall. This kind of trade isn't in the plan, and will not be in the plan, unless I can develop a consistant reason for re-entry. I just did it based on my previous experience, and some excel testing, to make a few points before the weekend. It was stopped out again for a gain of a few points.
After this, there is a continuation of retracements on the way down, followed by a number of retracements on the way back up to double top at the midpoint of the day. All this I can trade another day, at the moment I have to go work on the plan.
Attachments
Monday 13th October 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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I still have a good bit of work to do on my plan, but I took a few simple retracement trades today while watching the price move. I can definitely see that when the plan isn't 100% ready and tested, it is impossible to take all trades that occour due to lack of true belief in the plan. Here are the trades for today.
1. Long on breakout from open with pullback to make a higher low at the overnight high. Target 5 points or a break of the trendline, with a stop below the overnight high. I exited for 5 points when the price stoped moving upwards.
2. Here we have a retracement after a big fall. I put a short on with a target of the overnight low at . Initial stop was above the previous bar, moved to a point below entry once we had traveled 5 points downwards. Stopped out on the next bar and exited for 1 point.
3. The proper entry should have been back at the previous retrace to the line. We were coming close to the previous swing high at this point. Took the loss and got out.
4. This time we have a retrace for a lower high, after the line break. We have now also failed to break the swing high from the morning. I had placed a stop loss above the previous bar, and a target of the swing low around 3809. In the end it turned and I exited at 3836. The exit is not shown on the chart.
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I still have a good bit of work to do on my plan, but I took a few simple retracement trades today while watching the price move. I can definitely see that when the plan isn't 100% ready and tested, it is impossible to take all trades that occour due to lack of true belief in the plan. Here are the trades for today.
1. Long on breakout from open with pullback to make a higher low at the overnight high. Target 5 points or a break of the trendline, with a stop below the overnight high. I exited for 5 points when the price stoped moving upwards.
2. Here we have a retracement after a big fall. I put a short on with a target of the overnight low at . Initial stop was above the previous bar, moved to a point below entry once we had traveled 5 points downwards. Stopped out on the next bar and exited for 1 point.
3. The proper entry should have been back at the previous retrace to the line. We were coming close to the previous swing high at this point. Took the loss and got out.
4. This time we have a retrace for a lower high, after the line break. We have now also failed to break the swing high from the morning. I had placed a stop loss above the previous bar, and a target of the swing low around 3809. In the end it turned and I exited at 3836. The exit is not shown on the chart.
Attachments
Tuesday 14th October 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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I did a few trades today. I caught a good trend for a few points, but I still have a lot to do before I can trade every entry and manage them and myself correctly.
1. The stop loss was about 6 points, which is slightly above what I like. The target was the overnight low, and the previous day's low just below it. 5 points if trade was going nowhere.
2. I had set the initial target as the opening low, but he price moved so fast that I didn't get a chance to move the target futher upwards. Ultimately that was probably the maximum that I would have taken from the trade, because it turned and fell on the next bar.
3. Simple short on retracement. Stopped out. The lows are nearby so I should be more careful. I'm sure I've said that many times as I entered trades near extremes.
4. I entered a trade here for a long. I gave it a few minutes and exited. This kind of trade is one of the reasons that I know that I cannot trade properly yet. I am fine if it works out straight away, but don't like to see it hesitate. Also the next retracement after this worked out well, so not taking every trade is a major problem also.
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I did a few trades today. I caught a good trend for a few points, but I still have a lot to do before I can trade every entry and manage them and myself correctly.
1. The stop loss was about 6 points, which is slightly above what I like. The target was the overnight low, and the previous day's low just below it. 5 points if trade was going nowhere.
2. I had set the initial target as the opening low, but he price moved so fast that I didn't get a chance to move the target futher upwards. Ultimately that was probably the maximum that I would have taken from the trade, because it turned and fell on the next bar.
3. Simple short on retracement. Stopped out. The lows are nearby so I should be more careful. I'm sure I've said that many times as I entered trades near extremes.
4. I entered a trade here for a long. I gave it a few minutes and exited. This kind of trade is one of the reasons that I know that I cannot trade properly yet. I am fine if it works out straight away, but don't like to see it hesitate. Also the next retracement after this worked out well, so not taking every trade is a major problem also.
Attachments
Wedenday 15th October 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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Took a few trades today, but none got too far. There were several potential entries where I considered the sensible stop loss placement too far away from the entry. Missing those entries is unavoidable at the moment.
1. The market opened and the price went up and down for a while and then eventually decided to go up. I placed a long on the first retracement. My target was wait and see how far we get before breaking the line, but it turned quickly and stopped me out. Haven risen nearly 40 points from the low already, I can't expect much more.
2. Here we have a nice retracement. It goes back to the trend line, and it has an acceptable stop loss. I put a long on and let it run to see if it would break above the highs, but again I was stopped out within two bars. The last swing high was 10 points away, I could have taken an exit nearer the highs instead of letting it fall back near to the entry price. I would need a traders touch for that.
3. Here I put a short on the retracement, but we never made it past the swing low. I took the full stop loss on this one.
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Took a few trades today, but none got too far. There were several potential entries where I considered the sensible stop loss placement too far away from the entry. Missing those entries is unavoidable at the moment.
1. The market opened and the price went up and down for a while and then eventually decided to go up. I placed a long on the first retracement. My target was wait and see how far we get before breaking the line, but it turned quickly and stopped me out. Haven risen nearly 40 points from the low already, I can't expect much more.
2. Here we have a nice retracement. It goes back to the trend line, and it has an acceptable stop loss. I put a long on and let it run to see if it would break above the highs, but again I was stopped out within two bars. The last swing high was 10 points away, I could have taken an exit nearer the highs instead of letting it fall back near to the entry price. I would need a traders touch for that.
3. Here I put a short on the retracement, but we never made it past the swing low. I took the full stop loss on this one.
Attachments
Thursday 16th October 2014 :- Market Preview
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The fall on the daily chart from mid September, seems to be acccelerating in October.
I guess shorts will have most of the momentum at the moment. I don't know how much that will affect trading the 1 Min chart, but it may give stronger moves downward. As always I will keep my eyes open.
I was working on my exits for when the price fails to make a move after entry. I will try to add this in today, and hopefully reduce loses on these trades. It may cause me to miss a few slow breakouts, but it looks okay in testing. I'll know more by the end of the day.
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The fall on the daily chart from mid September, seems to be acccelerating in October.
I guess shorts will have most of the momentum at the moment. I don't know how much that will affect trading the 1 Min chart, but it may give stronger moves downward. As always I will keep my eyes open.
I was working on my exits for when the price fails to make a move after entry. I will try to add this in today, and hopefully reduce loses on these trades. It may cause me to miss a few slow breakouts, but it looks okay in testing. I'll know more by the end of the day.
Attachments
Thursday 16th October 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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We opened again with a lot of big bars, a 40 point rise, and no good retracements on the 1 min chart. It seems to be quite volatile the last few days. We are getting a lot of 10 point plus bars, and I find it hard to get acceptable stop losses for trades. These are good days for those who can get in, with lots of big movements.
1. First short of the day. Oh dear, Stopped out at breakeven again. After I waited so long for my retracement as well.
2. Entered a short on the retracement. Stopped out on the opposite end of the entry bar. Not much of a day, I didn't even get a chance to manage a trade over a few bars. I'll go back to my testing for a while. Hope the rest of you found some good entries.
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We opened again with a lot of big bars, a 40 point rise, and no good retracements on the 1 min chart. It seems to be quite volatile the last few days. We are getting a lot of 10 point plus bars, and I find it hard to get acceptable stop losses for trades. These are good days for those who can get in, with lots of big movements.
1. First short of the day. Oh dear, Stopped out at breakeven again. After I waited so long for my retracement as well.
2. Entered a short on the retracement. Stopped out on the opposite end of the entry bar. Not much of a day, I didn't even get a chance to manage a trade over a few bars. I'll go back to my testing for a while. Hope the rest of you found some good entries.
Attachments
I don't know about you Bon, but when that huge bar formed at 9:22 on your chart, and then the next bar, which was just as big, things went crazy after this. I saw so much volatility, so much back and forth that it made me think something was up. Price was just jumping around so much for me.
Up till this point I felt I was going with the flow quite well, but its like something changed, like someone hit a switch on some trading computer that going to shake everyone out who wasn't using 10 point stops!
ND is so experienced, maybe she can tell us about these algos! Although I know its not right to say the market is designed to screw the little guy, I do wonder if some automated trading kicked in that completely changed the behavior of the market. For this entire hour, it all looks like the type of action I see right after a news release.
I've been away for a while working on issues outside of trading, and I'm back for now.
I have some work to do on exits this week, because I am caught in two minds at the moment.
I may trade for real if any really good setups occour, but I do hope that I can stay out if no good trades are available.
Hopeful trades are not allowed.
On my daily chart we are getting closer to the top of the range, but we have been in a sideways motion for the past week.
On the 5 Min chart we have an overnight range that is contained within the previous days trading range, and we are roughly around the 50% level of the previous day. This gives us a few levels to watch, and we have a good number of points to travel before we can make a real breakout in any direction.
Again I hope to hold fire unless something good turns up, and I'll let you know how it goes at the end of the day.
I have some work to do on exits this week, because I am caught in two minds at the moment.
I may trade for real if any really good setups occour, but I do hope that I can stay out if no good trades are available.
Hopeful trades are not allowed.
On my daily chart we are getting closer to the top of the range, but we have been in a sideways motion for the past week.
On the 5 Min chart we have an overnight range that is contained within the previous days trading range, and we are roughly around the 50% level of the previous day. This gives us a few levels to watch, and we have a good number of points to travel before we can make a real breakout in any direction.
Again I hope to hold fire unless something good turns up, and I'll let you know how it goes at the end of the day.
