Another Straight Line Analysis Journal

[BonScott]

Thursday 18th September 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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Today was a mess. This is not how the plan is supposed to be immplimented. For some reason I am overtrading a lot this week.
I have reviewed as many of my old charts as I could over the day, and I need to stick to clearer trend line breaks at support/resistance where available or just do nothing.

 

[BonScott]

Friday 19th September 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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Only made 2 trades today. I will spend the rest of the weekend reviewing the old charts. I really need to improve.

1. This is supposed to be a short entry on the first retracement after breaking through the line.

2. On the breakdown I waited for a retracement to enter the short. Stopped out quickly. After this, there is a line break and retracement for a long, but I feel out of sync with it this week, so I will stop for now.

 

[BonScott]

After reviewing what I was doing over the weekend, and reading the other journals, I can see that I need to be more specific with my plan. Not every retracement is equal, and I need to focus on where the best entries happen. i'm still going over the charts for the year so far, but I can see that I am better to take a retracement that pulls back to the line after the break. I'll keep an eye on it today, but will probably make no entires.

 

[BonScott]

Monday 22th September 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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After refocusing on the old charts over the weekend and this morning, I was not expecting to make any trades. However a few of the entries that I had studied came up, so I made a few trades. I still need to do more work on them, but it was one of those days where we had a big fall, and any short entry would work.

1. I attempted a long here because we had a retracement within the supply line, and making a higher low. It was not a perfect entry but the higher low was close enough to make the stop loss acceptable. I exited when it was clear we were not getting a breakout from the entry point.

2. This retracement was better and it pulled nicely back to the demand line. I estimated my stop loss to be around 3 points, so I put a short on. I eventually exited when we couldn't hold below the overnight low.

3. I re-entered again after we retraced and passed through the LSL. This time I could draw a supply line, and I eventually exited when the price moved above it and made a higher low on the next bar. At the point of exit I could enter for a long on the retracement to the line, but after such a long fall it may need a rest.

The price then continued to fall. I do not have a plan for staying in these trades, or getting back in when it continues after some hesitation, which is a pity since I got the initial entry right to within a tick. I know that others have said to hold until price retraces 50% or reaches a defined level, but currently I am exiting mainly on line breaks, or target levels. Something else to improve on.

 

[BonScott]

Tuesday 23th September 2014 :- Market Preview
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On the daily chart we are below the mid point of our channel (the last bar appears to be missing, but we are around 4036 when printed). From here we may continue on to the bottom of the range which seems a long way off at 3950. Obviously we would first have to pass through the swing low above 4000, and I can't see all that happening in one day. We may indeed have a rest day after the big fall yesterday. Wait and see.

On the hourly we are in a definite downtrend at the moment, so that would be the most likely direction to continue today. We have an overnight high of 54, and low of 33 to negotiate first.

I will attempt to stick to the plan, even if no qualifying trades become available.

 

[BonScott]

Tuesday 23th September 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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We moved strongly up today, but I wasn't on the train. If I cannot determine a clear entry point in these trends, then I am limited mainly to going against the trend, with my line breaks and retracements. This will limit the amount of good trades available.

1. After the rise from the overnight low, we have a line break with retracement. It started well, but it hit the overnight midpoint and turned very quickly. I had moved my stop to just above the entry, and it was stopped out.

2. Another retracement after the line break. I could probably have drawn a tighter line and taken a higher short entry. I exited when we couldn't break through the overnight high and LSL.

3. This is a possible long entry, since we have broken the line and retraced for a higher low at around the 50% point. I didn't enter, because I have traded against trend today, and I want to stop and review more examples of the trades before continuing. Also I would have been stopped out if I had traded this one.

 

[BonScott]

Wedensday 24th September 2014 :- 1 MIn Chart Review
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As much as I say that I can wait out a day with no trades, I think the sight of price going up and down in a big trend without any point of entry, leads me to start overthinking this, and being rash. I probably should not have put on the first two trades today. One worked and one didn't. The other two were regular retracement trades.

1. This is a short off the rejection of the 50% level. I put a tight 2 point target on this which was triggered. This is a bad trade, because, their was no real plan, just a feeling on the inability to pass the 50 level. I think that after watching price go up and down without being able to see an entry, I get restless.

2. Short on break of low. I must stop misbehaving. If their is no trade, there is no trade.

3. Short on retracement on break of line. This failed quickly

4. The same trade, this time off a rejection of the overnight high. I moved the stop down once we had moved a few points, and was taken out. Enough for today.

 

[k p]

I know exactly how you are feeling here Bon!

2. I certainly understand this trade.. you think we have broken lower so its great confirmation to catch the down wave, but alas, a swing low in some random place is just a swing low and breaking it means nothing, other than a good place for the algos to catch you! LOL..

3. This to me is what I come come to learn is trying to catch a top. You're taking a short hoping for a reversal, but we are now in a very strong up trend (almost 20 points from 33 to the high at 51 before it came down for a bit.) Your short is barely 3 points below this, well within the bounds of what is a normal retracement or area of congestion. The experts on here I'm sure all say to not trade against a well defined trend. (and look at this trend now.. it just won't stop!)

I'm of course not saying I could do any better... but when its not my money, I at least know better what to do!

 

[BonScott]

Isn't that the ultimate problem with what we do. Trades with the trend will fail at choppy times, and reversals will fail in trends.
Our job is to determine where we are. Some days are easy in hindsight, but I can't see any way in today. The good thing about he market is there is always tomorrow. Just trying to keep learning.

 

[k p]

Thank god for tomorrow... as long as there is still money left in the account!

I wrote in my journal yesterday that I didn't want to take huge loses and hence why I traded the 1 minute charts. But a few losses added up to over $200.. this is 10 points! Had I just used a 5 point stop loss and entered a trade that was going with the trend, I doubt I'd lose twice in a row and attain that same $200 loss. As I'm looking at my 5 minute chart, there are even retracements along the way that could have been taken and no way would a 5 point stop loss be hit. (I also don't think the retracement has to appear in the 5 minute chart, price just needs to show its direction on this chart, then you can use the 1 minute to enter)

Of course its easy when we know its a good trend day, but I really do think the 5 minute chart or even higher time frame has to set the trade up initially, and then you can use the 1 minute to get in. Lord knows if I keep using the 1 minute charts I will just continue to lose money, so I gotta switch it up a bit!

(we have already gone up 40 points though, don't take retracements now hoping for another 40 points.... hahaha)