Another Straight Line Analysis Journal

[BonScott]

Friday 12th September 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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I did okay today. We had a good entry after the open for the first short. The rest of the time we had weaker entries. Sometimes these work but today they went nowhere.

1. A simple short after a fall below the overnight low at the open, which retraced to touch and reject the overnight low from below. I just set a simple target and stop loss combination here, and the target was hit first.

2. Short on retracement and rejection of yesterday's midpoint. Exited when we stopped going down.

3. This one was a short off the touching of the supply line. This is a beginer's mistake because I am shorting off a higher high. I see it as a sign of greed that after 2 good entry points, I was willing to see anything as an entry.

4. The line is broken at Thursdays midpoint, but it didn't go far. I fact it failed to break the previous swing low and made a double bottom, where I exited.

5. The double bottom with the previous low should have given me a sign not to short on this retracement, but I guess I wasn't making descisions fast enough. I exited when we again failed to break the swing lows.

6. I tried a short on the break out below the lows, but it did not continue at a pace that would suggest a strong breakout, so I exited on the next bar. Enough for today.

 

[BonScott]

Monday 15th September 2014 :- Market Preview
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We have continued within our hourly channel, hitting the low point on Friday and turning upwards. I was not around to take any trades, but it looks like we are heading towards the midpoint at the moment. This does not give opportunities for the best trades, but I will still keep an eye on the retracements to see if their is a point of entry.

There may even be no good trades today. Hopefully I can stay out if nothing appears. I have often seen myself enter wishful trades, and I am trying to reduce these each week.

 

[BonScott]

Monday 15th September 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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We fell to our hourly range low today and passed through. The chart is messed up as the bars changed when I moved from 1 min to other time frames and back again.

1. We opened with a quick fall from the midpoint of the highs on Wedensday and Thursday, to the lows on Friday. It fell so fast that I did not get a retracement for a short entry. We eventually get a retracement at point 1,but we have already fallen 20 points and are near to the hourly range lows, which have been in place for weeks, so I decided to wait and see what happened at the lows.

2. I took a short here on the retracement. The low of the range is around this area, and when we failed to hold above it and turned down again, the short seemed a low risk entry. Exited on the first bar that retraced well above the previous one.

3. I took a short on the breakout here, which is my first wrong trade of the week. Exited on the same bar. Why I waited for the retracement on the last trade and not here, is a question I need to answer, and then keep the answer in front of me everyday. I should have stopped trading after the first good trade off a long term low, but I guess I was thinking that we have a lot of space below us to potentially fall. Sounds like greed, mixed with hope, mixed with not following the plan. If I was SIM trading I'd pretend that I didn't take this trade.

 

[YMOCA]

BonScott,

Looks like you are still trading the Sept contract.
Futures contract rollover happened last week, and there's more volume on the Dec contract now. You may want to switch over.

 

[BonScott]

Yes, I need to change over. It seems impossible to create continuous futures on Multicharts.Net with IB.
I guess I'll have to forget about all my old charts and start again with the December contract.

 

[k p]

This is my pain as well, and as I was discussing with Db, the reason why I wasn't able to pay attention to the long term channel.

I'm not sure if there is a work around, but I have installed Ninja Trader, and they have free EOD data, so I can always use this for getting my macro view. I find it still doesn't plot enough data when using daily charts, but if I switch it to weekly or monthly, I can go back years.

 

[BonScott]

Yes it seems to be a fault with Multicharts. None of the online help seems to give a way of fixing it. I'm surprised by it. Maybe they have no interest in the futures markets.

 

[BonScott]

Wedensday 17th September 2014 :- Market Preview
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The fall of the last few days has reversed. We made a high of 4066 yesterday afternoon, and we are now sitting at the mipoint between the highs at 4108, and the lows at 4004. We may make a break for the highs again or possibly fall back to the lows (how's that for predictions).

The overnight low is at 4050, and the overnight high is 4061. How relevant they are will be seen at the open. Again I will try my best to trade properly and stick to the planned entries on retracements. No hopefull trades, and no greedy trades.

 

[BonScott]

Wedensday 17th September 2014 :- 1 Min Chart Review
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Today we spent most of the morning moving around our overnight high in a range of around 10 points. This is not good for retracement entries, but I tried a few anyway, and won some and lost some. I did my best to stick to retracement entries, and I had very tight stops so didn't lose much. However the fact that I couldn't get a decent trend today led me to trade every entry in the range, and in the end I think I started to overtrade.

1. Long on retracement after open. Exited after failed to hold through yesterday's high. I guess if I knew how to do reversals, I could enter somewhere here. Thats for another time.

2. This is another long on retracement. This one failed quickly below the highs. Are we going into a hinge?

3. Another long on retracement. It isn't working today.

4. Short on retracement after line break. Stopped out when the price broke above the previous bar.

5. The entry is well late here. It didn't trigger 2 bars before the entry, and I exited when we failed to breakout. Actually, when I look at it again, I could have entered on the retracement after the double bottom.

6. Short on break of the lows and retracement. Exited for breakeven.

7. Another short on retracement. I'm now officially overtrading. I'll stop for today.

 

[BonScott]

Thursday 18th September 2014 :- Market Preview
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On the 60 min chart we have moved above the midpoint of the range, but we have also tested yesterday's high and bounced off it overnight.
The overnight low did not go beyond the midpoint of yesterdays range between 39 and 84. So we held the midpoint all night, and we failed to break the highs towards the morning. This gives me no idea of most probable direction today, but if we can get above the highs we may make a break for the top of the range.