Another Straight Line Analysis Journal

[BonScott]

Thursday 21st August 2014 :- NQ Market Preview
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The general uptrend has continued, although we have not had a large trending day for a while. The last few days have been fairly flat when we look at the hourly chart.

Yesterday we reached a high of 46.5 during normal trading hours, and that area has been tested in the early morning. We bounced off that and are currently headed downwards. The overnight low sits at 33, and hopefully we can escape the overnight range today.

 

[BonScott]

Thursday 21st August 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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Today we had some trades at the extremes. There was enough movement to make some points, although I did leave a good bit on the table because I set targets for each trade, rather than waiting for the lines to break. Overall I'm satisfied with the trades that I entered. There is room for improvement, but I didn't do anything crazy either.

1. After rejecting the high, I put a short of the next retracement. This failed, and the price went back to test the highs again.

2. Shorted again on the next rejection of the highs. Gave myself a target of the opening lows, and then I would see what happens. It made it on the first bar, the range has been small so far.

3. After the price failed to go up, I put a short on the breakdown. I was happier to exit and re-enter rather than just hold. I exited on the break of the supply line and the failure to reach a new low. This exit left me too late to set up a long, which could have been entered after the higher low.

4. I put a long on the next retracement, with a target of 5 points. After missing the long at the bottom we may have just turned at the opening lows, but it made it up to the target, and ultimately well beyond. That was it for today.

 

[BonScott]

Friday 22nd August 2014 :- NQ Market Preview
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After failing to get above 48 yesterday, we eventually made it above after hours, and reached an overnight high a few points higher at 53. Since then we made a double top at 53 and fell back to retrace our gains from yesterday, and reached a low at 36, which is above yesterday's low of 34. We have a midpoint at 44, and are currently sitting above that.

Given that we have stayed more or less within yesterday's boundaries, we have similar highs and lows to watch for again today. With some luck I may get something good to trade before the weekend.

 

[BonScott]

Friday 22nd August 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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I did okay today, but made a few mistakes, such as trading the exit of a hinge, which I don't know enough about. I feel that I stepped away from my plan today at certain times, and I need to review that over the weekend. Overall it was good to have a full week of real trades to see where the greed/fear issues start affecting me, and where they take me away from my plan.

1. We rejected the highs at the open, dropped down, and I placed a short on the retracement. I had set an initial target of the overnight low (just above 36), but I was stopped out before we made it down there.

2. Simple SLA trade. Retracement after line break. With this one I set a 5 point target, which was triggered after 10 minutes. We followed this with a sudden spike in volatility, so I sat back waiting to see what would happen. We created a hinge and then broke out above it towards the overnight high.

3. This one is probably not very sensible, since I know very little about trading hinges. I took a chance that the breakout would continue above the highs, for the risk of a small loss. I got the small loss for my troubles.

4. A short on the rejection of the high. Once it didn't continue down quickly past the 50% of the recent rise, I was aware that it would not work this time, and exited for a small loss.

5. A break above the overnight high, with a retracement to the high. I put a long on here, and exited on the break of the demand line. 5 trades is enough today, probably too much. I'll take a break.

 

[BonScott]

Monday 25th August 2014 :- NQ Market Preview
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After making some small gains on Friday, we moved up to an overnight high of 77.
We are a little below this at the moment, but could test it today, which will give us an area of interest for trades.

We have lows around 68/69, so any movement below that could be an opportunity to short back into Friday's congestion area. So we start the day with areas of interest close by, and we should reach at least on of them unless we have another very tight ranging day.

Good luck to everyone trading this week.

 

[BonScott]

Monday 25th August 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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Doh... I planned on getting trades at the extremes, but my head wasn't right today, and I took trades too early in the wrong places. It may take a while before the bad habits go away.

1. For quite a while after the open, we moved in a 3 point range with no prospect of entries for me. Eventually I put a long on what looked like a retracement and a breakout towards the highs. First trade of the week, and not successful.

2. We retraced after another attempt at the highs. The short is near the bottom of the range. I am not trading well today, doing all the bad things that I looked at over the weekend.

3. Last one. A simple SLA trade, after a rejection of the highs. I should have just waited for this from the start. Exited on the break of the line. Its getting late in the morning in a narrow range day, so I can't expect much from it.

 

[k p]

Your chart looks so similar to exactly what I was doing just a month ago. I don't know how, but I kept catching the tops, and going long, or catching the bottoms, and going short (ha... and guys say you cant catch a top or bottom... I was good at it.. just trading in the wrong direction! LOL). They are at least legit SLA trades, and I can see how the entry is exactly one point away from the crest or trough.

Its a bummer that it sometimes doesn't work, and I know my fear of money loss is what kept me from taking the next trade for example which would work and make up for the loss.

Anyway, I just wanted to point out that just because it doesn't work, its important to not think that you are trading badly. If you are following the SLA rules, which it looks like you are doing, then you're trading well, even if the trade didn't work! If you stop taking the SLA trades, this is where you might not be able to let the power of statistics work for you. And of course after two losses in a row its important to stop and wait for price to go somewhere else. But I just wanted to tell you that I think you are doing well because you are following rules.

Also, I saw for myself that after price moved against me right away, I probably could have exited sooner. When you watch a tick chart or even if you have a 15 second chart up, I was amazed at how after a short for example I had lots of higher lows and my exit could have been made much sooner.

I think when Db says that you should give price room, this is contingent on where you got in. If its right above a range and price dips back into the range, then the breakout trade from the range is clearly not working, so no point in waiting around. If anything, I think given the first long for example, it looks like a mini range to me, so waiting for the solid retracement after price leaves the range is probably best... which I can only say in hindsight of course though. But this long is based on the retracement happening within the range, so its not as good. Giving price room is best once price is trending, but today was an ugly day where it was just stuck in little ranges for most of the morning.

Anyway, I clearly don't know what I'm talking about since I haven't been able to come up with a consistent plan yet, but just reading what you wrote and looking at your chart made me think of me... so I wanted to say I fully understand what you are doing! LOL

 

[BonScott]

Hi k p.
I had my points of action marked on my charts, but after the open I was thinking that I could get in before the highs or lows.
They may be valid trades, but i was annoyed that I didn't wait, and i think it was because I expected the extremes to be tested earlier. When they didn't, I tried to make something happen. Each day, I get something to improve on, even on the winning days. Hopefully I can learn the lessons.

 

[k p]

Oh I see... I thought you trying to get in on a solid SLA trade one point above or below. I can also understand getting in early. It seems safer for me to get into a trade early, then there is less to do and you can just sit back and watch. But alas, the "safety" aspect is anything but!

 

[BonScott]

Tuesday 26th August 2014 :- NQ Market Preview
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Yesterday after reaching a high of 78, we fell to 57 in the afternoon. We are still in an uptrend over the past few weeks, although we finished the day with no gains.

We have an overnight high of 73, and low around 61. These will be the first areas of interest when price starts moving. The 73 point has been tested numerous times in the morning without passing through.