Another Straight Line Analysis Journal

Thursday 17th July 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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Today was okay. We didn't move far in the morning, but there are a few entries that work. Its always an unknown which will work when the trades are triggered.

1. First retracement on move up from open. This long made a few points.

2. If the first one was missed there is now a second retracement for a long. This failed quickly.

3. Demand line break with retracement for a short. This one also failed. It only made it down to the 50% point since the open, before turning up and stopping out.

4. A nice neat supply line, with a break and retracement for a long. I like this one, because a stop below the recent swing low is only a few points away.

It looks like we have a morning where the price is going nowhere for now. We are currently revolving around our overnight high of 21, waiting for something to happen.
Eventually we have a break down while I am typing up this and thinking that nothing is happening.
 
Friday 18th July 2014 :- NQ Market Preview
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Another day with large movement yesterday, and again after hours. I had given up watching before the real action happened. Overall we had a high of 927, down to a low of 854, and we are currently back at the mean point of 891.

Our longer term trend is upwards, but we have fallen below the mean of the channel, and may be heading towards the bottom. The short term trend is upwards overnight, and the line is unbroken for most of the night and morning. I often get fooled by an overnight rise such as this, leading me to think we will have a positive day. However, usually these predictions are wildly wrong, so I will wait and see what the market does, and try follow it as best I can.
 
Friday 18th July 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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I found it difficult today. We had a hinge for quite a while, before it looked like breaking out, then just meandered into a day spent around the mean. On these days when nothing happens for a long time I can miss the trends by not expecting things to happen.

1. Here I was thinking that we must exit the hinge at some point. The failure upwards led me to try a short which went nowhere. Not the best trade in the world, and sometimes I feel that when I have waited a while, I need to put a trade on the board. Maybe there are some days where my journal should show no trades.

2. The supply line is broken with a higher low than 30 minutes earlier. The long is not the breakout point, and it just stays well within the current range.

3. There is a line break with retracement here, but at this stage I figured that I was not calling things right today, so I did not take it.
 
Monday 21st July 2014 :- NQ Market Preview
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Long term we are still on an uptrend, and have made several new highs over the last few weeks. Currently we are near those highs again, so we will watch for the reaction of price to that point if we get there.

From Thursday night through Friday early morning to the close, we retraced all of the fall that we had made, and moved from a low of 854 to come close to the highs at 941. 50% of the rise is at 895, which is approx the mean of Friday mornings action.

Our overnight high is at 936, and we had a low at 921 which is been tested as I write this. If this low fails we have a certain amount of lows and congestion areas, but the main low is at 854, a long way off. Obviously if we break above the highs we have a potential resistance point at 941.
 
Monday 21st July 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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1. Looking on the 15 second chart I could have entered a short somewhere above 21, and before we reached the overnight low. I guess this would be a right tick retracement. Instead I waited for a breakout below the overnight low, which never happened.

2. This is a long back into the range after a line break. I had no high hopes of this one when we reached the and turned down again, but it went up to close to the highs before stopping. Not a good trade really. Should be looking for trades on the exit of the range, rather than inside it.

3. I have drawn the demand line, but did not take a short. I understand that there is a steeper demand line which is broken earlier with retracement, but I didn't take that.

4. Here I have a short on the exit from the range after a retracement, but maybe I should have had a long a few bars earlier. I guess this one is a bias for short, which should not come before the rules.

5. Could have taken a short around here. In my head we were starting to move into a tight range. Not a good one.

6. Line break with retracement. Went nowhere.
 
Tuesday 22nd July 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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I didn't do much right today. Buy high, sell low mostly. Hope to improve on Wedensday.

1. After the open we tested the highs with a lot of overlapping bars. We then moved down to the opening lows. After making a double bottom with the opening lows we have a retracement for a long. Not my favorite place to enter. We are coming back into the opening range, and close to the mean. It moved up for a while, but the breakout of the range stalled at 53, and we returned to the opening range.

2. After breaking the demand line we retraced to 50% of the rise, and turned up. This is a point for a long, but in real time I was waiting to see if we were going to break the highs.

3. Long on the first retracement after the breakout. Going nowhere.

4. Having missed a good short yesterday by sticking to a wider demand line, I put a short on the retracement after the double top. This actually looks like doing neither one thing or the other. I need a break.

5. There is potential for a long here, with the supply line break and retracement, although we are quite near the highs. I definitely wasn't thinking short.

6. Around this area is where I am often in 2 minds. We have a retreacement for a short, which doesn't work, then a possible long. Still not sure with this kind of action.
 
Wedensday 23rd July 2014 :- NQ Market Preview
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We are continuing our uptrend, which has been running since the middle of April on the daily chart. Our slow march to 4000 also continues. We currently have a high of 968. Just a small hop from here, a few extras bulls in the morning, and we'll make it.

After making new highs yesterday, we eventually retreated to the opening price when things settled down after the close. Speaking of the close, it looks like somebody thinks that trading after the close is a good place to make some money. We had some more big moves overnight, including a breakout to new highs. The overnight range is again bigger than the daytime range.

Above here, 68 is an obvious point to look for reactions in the morning, given that we are so close to it. Below we have congestion from yesterday around the mid 50's.
 
Wedensday 23rd July 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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We had a good rise today. Not quite to 4000, but the day is long.
I need to review all of this at the weekend. Sometimes I feel that I am getting away from the rules of this, and sometimes I feel 99% in tune. Anyway, here is the review of what I saw today.

1. We opened with a straight breakout beyond the highs. After a double top, we moved back to the opening lows. We broke down to yesterday morning's high, and retraced for a short. This failed with a double bottom, and reversal.

2. First retracement after the line break. The long makes it back to the highs.

3. This is a demand line break off a high, with a nice neat retracement. These are the kind that I like, and feel comfortable taking. Just gotta improve on the rest now.

4. Missed a long here on the treble bottom. I was still thinking about the short that didn't go anywhere. There is a further opportuniy for a long in the next retracement above this.Need to stay awake to get the better entries, instead of later retracements.

5. We have a short here as we get close to 11am. The day has been up since 15 minutes after the open, so it may go nowhere. Was expecting the mornings rise to continue to 4000, but I guess traders need a coffee break. So do I.
 
Thursday 24th July 2014 :- NQ Market Preview
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The zombie traders were out again last night to move us up close to 4000. As the sunlight fills the day, they have retreated back to the shadows, and we are currently sitting at the mid 80's. Its left to the morning traders to finish the job and make the headlines.

If we turn down, there seems to be support around 971, which was hit several times yesterday, so any move below that could give us the possibility of a short, but with 15 or so points between here and 71, we would hope to get into a short much earlier.

I will try to follow the rules today, and see things as they happen. One trade at a time, and no bias.
 
Thursday 24th July 2014 :- NQ 1 Min Chart Review
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Today was okay. The first short would have stopped out with a tight stop, and this type of behaviour is one of the reasons that I am not yet comfortable with going live. In the morning before the market had opened, I actually wrote in my notepad a list of 5 things to research over the weekend, directly related to this type of stop/exit. Thats for the weekend, now for today.

1. Short after retracement. We had failed to reach the highs on the open, and while we may only get to the lows at 71, it is worth a shot. After a short fall it pulls back up to below 50% of the fall, but not breaking the swing high. This type of movement is a killer for tight stops. The next retraement breaks the supply line, so I can sometimes be caught between a long, or a short because of the rejection of the 50%. Ultimately we fall all the way to the potential support, that we noticed before the open at 71.

2. The higher low at the 71 area, along with what looked like the breaking of a steeper supply line, led me to put a long on here. It didn't get far, and in reality the breaking of the fall is a wandering messy affair, and not a nice quick turn around. A lot of trading to get through around this area. I will wait and see which way it goes after everyone has finished at this price.

3. We were in a range for a while at a point where we anticipated possible resistance. So when it broke above the range I marked a long on the retracement. It made a modest rise.
 
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