Another Straight Line Analysis Journal

Monday 26th May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview
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We have really taken off in our uptrend over the last week. We may even get parabolic this week. For sure, a further increase towards the March highs will get the talking heads discussing the rise in the media. A fast rise like this also leaves little congestion to slow down any fall in price.

Overnight, we made a low of 677 and high of 688. After a test and fail to reach 88 again, we have settled into the higher end of our overnight range around 86.

A break downwards has congestion begining at 660, with 50% of our rise from Friday's lows at 667. Because of the rapid rise in price the main congestion with volume below only starts in the 620's.

If we go above 688, our next big swing high is at 712, but we usually have action around the round numbers like 700, because people like round numbers, unless its their age.
 
Tuesday 27th May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview
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Not much to add this morning. We have made it as far as 96 in the early morning and are coming closer to the next swing highs. The points that I will watch for are the same as yesterday.
 
Tuesday 27th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
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Today the general direction was up, but we didn't have many SLA entries. Overall it was fine, with no crazy chop. A day spent mostly watching rather than trading.


1. Opened with a test of the overnight high at 96 which failed above 97. This is a possible point for a short when it passess back into the range. Need to keep watching for these, but currently wouldn't take them.

2. After a higher low we had another fail at the highs, but it didn't turn down this time, and kept going up.

3. We hit 701 and the then the demand line is broken, with a retracement back to 701 for a short on the double top. Need to be fast to get these trades, there is a retracement later on for an entry, but it would be stopped out very quickly.

4. We turned at 94 and made a retracement to give a long opportunity above 701. After that was stopped out, I didn't see any clear opportunities, and we were getting closer to 11am, so I stopped for the day.
 
Wedensday 28th May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview
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At this stage we are so close to the highs that I feel we should test them today. This is where it will be interesting to see if we get a fall at the highs, or if the news of new highs pulls in the crowd to buy at any price. Parabolic rhymes with alcoholic, and these highs can be addictive.

Overnight we made it as far as 30, and have fallen off by 10 points since then to the overnight lows as I post this. A breakout below pulls us back into congestion soon enough. On the other hand a break above has a high at 40 and clear skies above that.
 
Wedensday 28th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
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No big breakout today. We moved below the overnight lows in the morning and then into a downward channel. I took a few trades, and 1 out of 4 worked. As I write, we haven't moved far away from the open, so we may have to wait until later for any strong directional movement.


1. I took a short here after the rejection of 50% at 23. Trying the right tick retracment on this one knowing that it may turn quickly and stop me out. This made it to above 12 before turning. I let it run until we made a higher low, and then moved the stop to break even. Not a perfect trade. Could have got on earlier, but I prefered to enter on the break of the lows.

2. After the stop there is a retracement for a long here above 17, which I didn't take. This made it to the previous highs where it turned. Exiting and re-entering quickly is something that I need to work on.

3. Retracement for a long again here, which was instantly stopped out. The entry is just below the opening low, but I wasn't concerned with that at the time.

4. Demand line break with retracment for a short. We halted at the opening lows and when the price started moving horizontally I moved the stop to 17, just above the high of the 9:58 bar. After the price reached 12 it turned quickly and was exited above 15. This one was a nice clean SLA trade.

5. Turned at 50% of the rise since yesterday's low. Back up into the congested area. No descisive breakout today. Since the open we have barely moved 10 points.

6. This counts as a demand line break with retracement, but I was looking back at previous trades to see where I could have improved, and I missed it until it had already got onto the next bar. I had my demand line drawn for reference, so I shouldn't have missed it.

7. Supply line break with retracement. Time for a long. This on reached the 50% point and turned instantly. A stop below the recent low would have kept me in the trade. Another test of my risk tolerance, but given the fast turn in price it seemed acceptable to close the trade at the time.
 
Thursday 29th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
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A similar day to yesterday. Not much easy trading to be had for me. We moved mostly around a mean in a tight range. If I cannot make money from these, I am happy not to lose much, and wait until trending days.


1. Put a short here off the rejection of the high. Just trying to get in early. This was exited soon after.
As the minutes moved on I could see that we were operating within a tight range. I will try to be ready for a breakout from this. It always looks obvious in hindsight.

2. Retracement after the demand line had broken. I exited at breakeven when it made a higher low. It looks like a day were traders are moving as much trades as possible around the mean, and maybe after all this is finished we will get some movement.
 
Friday 30th May 2014 NQ100 Market Preview
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We have finally got to touching distance of the highs. We made it to 37 by the close, and that was as high as we have got since. It will be interesting to see if there is any resistance to getting past 40. We do seem overdue a pause or retracement soon, but I will let the buyers and sellers decide when it happens.

Above 40 their is obviously a lot of fresh air, while below, we have made a relatively fast rise, so could easily see a big drop if we fail to get past 40.

Overnight we made a low of 29 and moved back towards the middle of the channel. As usual we have to test the overnight channel highs or lows before we can go anywhere.
 
Friday 30th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
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We spent most of the morning going nowhere. We tried to get past the high of 37 and eventually did, but no powerful breakout. I traded too much today, and it was most likely boredom at sitting watching another day kmowing that my skills are not good enough to play these kind of days better. A slap on the wrist for me, and I'll go for a run to help the mind and body stay strong.


1. A test of the overnight high followed by a test of the overnight low. I entered a short here below the overnight low, and it was stopped out instantly. A small loss which I can accept for the potential of a continuation of the fall. After this we had a lot of overlap and appeared to move into a hinge pattern, as buyers and sellers could not take price higher or lower.

2. We have a retracement after the break above the support line. We are in the middle of the 10 point range since the open. I'll wait and see what happens.

3. Rejection at the high again, so I entered on a retracement. Got out when it turned quickly. The difference between this and the last one was we had moved quickly, whereas athe last on was in congestion for a while.

4. We hit the highs again, and this time had a retracement near the highs. I put a short in here, and exited above the break of the supply line. These trades are starting to look like the result being hopeful for action during a day of relative boredom.
Looking at the day so far, I can see that the lows are getting higher even though we haven't made a descisive move past yesterday's highs. There seems to be a push towards breaking through that high.
 
Wedensday 4th June 2014 NQ100 Market Preview
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Missing for a few days due to computer issues.

After hitting the highs of March again a few days ago, we have had a few days wandering around a mean of about 26. We didn't get a breakout into new highs, and we didn't fall quickly either. Obviously a lot of trades are taking place around here, and when the handover ends, it will be interesting to see where the price goes.

At the moment we have highs to watch at the various swing highs above and also the mean of our congestion and hinges at around 26. We have lows at 16, 14, 7, and then room for a drop.
Overnight we have trended downwards, and are approaching yesterdays open and lows.
 
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