Another Straight Line Analysis Journal

We have an overnight range from 77 to 88, with a midpoint of 83. We made another attempt at 88 a few hours ago, failed and fell to the bottom of the range. In the morning we have and tried to escape the range and returned inside and we are heading for the mean again.

If we break below the range, I would look for the opportunity for a short, keeping an eye on the levels from yesterday. We have various swing lows, and a 50% at 67 to watch for, along with the mean of yesterday's morning channel at around 54.

I was kind of surprised that we didn't make it to the previous swing high of 600 after getting so close. It wouldn't take much of a push today to get us up there, and I would look for a long if price heads that direction. If it gets there I would be aware that we may get a quick reversal, or at least some consolidation around the area. If price just pushes through without stopping, then I can assume that the long is the correct direction.
 
BonScott said:
We have an overnight range from 77 to 88, with a midpoint of 83. We made another attempt at 88 a few hours ago, failed and fell to the bottom of the range. In the morning we have and tried to escape the range and returned inside and we are heading for the mean again.

If we break below the range, I would look for the opportunity for a short, keeping an eye on the levels from yesterday. We have various swing lows, and a 50% at 67 to watch for, along with the mean of yesterday's morning channel at around 54.

I was kind of surprised that we didn't make it to the previous swing high of 600 after getting so close. It wouldn't take much of a push today to get us up there, and I would look for a long if price heads that direction. If it gets there I would be aware that we may get a quick reversal, or at least some consolidation around the area. If price just pushes through without stopping, then I can assume that the long is the correct direction.
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Not bad. This is the direction that the journal should take at this point.
 
Thanks for your input Db.
I have learnt a lot from last weeks trading, and the discussions on the Ghost thread, and in the various journals. New doors in awareness are opening nearly everyday now.
 
Wedensday 23rdApril 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

Today we had a relatively calm day. There were good entries at the start of the day, a nice trend, and then a consolidation where none of us went mad looking for invisible trades. I still have a lot of stuff to read and analyse, but I feel like this is a 2 steps forward week, rather than a 1 step back week.


1. Just before the open we tried and failed a few times to get to the mean of the overnight range at 83. Because of this I could have entered a short when we dropped out of the range at the open. However I waited for a retracement at 73 to enter.

2. Still the short at 73 was good, and made it down to just above the 50% point of 67 before turning. I would exit on the turn up, given that I anticipated a possible a reaction at this point from prep work.

3. Price rose to 75, 50% of the fall, and turned sharply. Re-entry is on this rejection somewhere around 71. I'm sure with more experience I could probably enter a point or two higher.

4. We got to a busy area from yesterday and then halted. There is a higher low but our longer term SL still holds. Here is where better entries give me more psychological room to hold on.

5. The fall stopped at 52, which is 50% of the move from 17 to 89. This is also a swing low from yesterday, before we made the big move upwards, and also within the zone of the range mean from yesterday overnight. For whatever reason it found a value where buyers stepped in to purchase some contracts.

6. We did eventually get break of the SL from the open. The power was gone from the market before that, and price moved into consolidation. It tried to move up several times, but it could never quite get to the swing high and 50% point at 66.

During this consolidation we had time to talk on chat, and Green made a point that stuck with me. He said that in times of indescision, we should pretend that we are in pre-market doing our prep. With this in mind we should look at what levels we will decide to go long or short from here. I know we should always be aware of changing conditions, but within consolidation, the moves often slow down, giving more time to look at the changes in the market since the open.
 
BonScott said:
During this consolidation we had time to talk on chat, and Green made a point that stuck with me. He said that in times of indescision, we should pretend that we are in pre-market doing our prep. With this in mind we should look at what levels we will decide to go long or short from here.
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I disagree. Assuming the prep was done thoroughly and properly, all one has to do is follow price. Trying to outguess it is a quick road to overtrading assuming one is able to make a trading decision at all. See the chart I posted to TL regarding yesterday's SLA trades.
 
Thursday 24th April 2014 Pre-market Review

Well we made it above 599 in a big earnings sling shot. Then into a range overnight before eventually breaking 600 in the morning. We are above 50% of the long term drop from 740, and have continued to move upwards over the last few days.

In the morning the rise has stopped at 618 which is around the mean of old consolidation from March. I don't see great signifigance in this, but I will see what happens if it is tested. We have highs to watch for at 670, and 658.

The overnight range was from 89 to 99 with a mean of 94. If we include the move up in the early morning we get a mean of 99 which is the top of first range mentioned. Either way the 99 level may provoke a reaction.

If we get below 89 we have a lot of daylight to the lows of 45, but 50% of the rise from the lows is at 582, which puts it around the mean of yesterday's overnight range.
 
dbphoenix said:
I disagree. Assuming the prep was done thoroughly and properly, all one has to do is follow price. Trying to outguess it is a quick road to overtrading assuming one is able to make a trading decision at all. See the chart I posted to TL regarding yesterday's SLA trades.
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I understand. I'll check it out.
 
BonScott said:
Thursday 24th April 2014 Pre-market Review

Well we made it above 599 in a big earnings sling shot. Then into a range overnight before eventually breaking 600 in the morning. We are above 50% of the long term drop from 740, and have continued to move upwards over the last few days.

In the morning the rise has stopped at 618 which is around the mean of old consolidation from March. I don't see great signifigance in this . . .
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620 is the UL of the TC I posted yesterday.
 
Thursday 24th April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

That big earnings rise didn't last long. Back to yesterday's lows by 10am. Good clean retracement entries today from the open.


1. There is a short opportunity right at the open, and again when price retraces from 600 and falls again.

2. After that it moved down sharply, and several levels that I had looked at in prep, were brushed aside easily showing the strength of the move.

3. We had a halt at 55, which was the mean of a long hinge from yesterday. The support line was a long way from here, and left me thinking about where to exit.
Once we had a retracement then a break above 70 would have led me to exit.
As it was we had a rejection of 70 with a lower high, and a continuation.

4. We reached yesterday's low of 45 and turned very sharply. This rejection of 45 is the point for an exit, and a reversal if possible.

5. We made it to the previous swing high, but couldn't progress, and moved into a range.

6. After a supply line breakout and retracement, we moved up to the bottom of the overnight channel and couldn't get past with several tries. Eventually settled into a range.
 
Friday 25th April 2014 NQ100 pre-market review

By the end of yesterday we could not get anywhere near the highs of 618. In fact we stalled at yesterday's ON range mean of 594.

In the early morning we left the mean of the current ON range, and then price headed downwards closer to the morning. Eventually we moved below the overnight range, and though we tried to get back in it didn't hold. This would indicate weakness.

Yesterday's low was 544 and this was the point of a big reversal off a previous low.
We also have a mean of 532 from the channel in March. I will watch for a reversal at these levels, until then the long direction looks weak.
 
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