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Another Straight Line Analysis Journal
- Thread starter BonScott
- Start date
Tuesday 15th April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
Today we tested upwards to the channel middle, and then fell to the lower limits. A nice clean AMT day, with a good SLA entry for the main move of the day. No real drama.
Pre-open.
Before the open we rejected yesterday's high at 85, came down to the 50% point at 75, and back up for a lower high, This indicated a downward direction, but madness can happen when the big money hits the market.
1. Opened down to 72 and moved into overlapping bars.
2. When price rose, it made it to the overnight highs, and rejected, suggesting a REV entry, but these would have failed.
3. We rose above friday's highs of 95 and onto 99. Here we reversed and retraced below the previous highs of 95 giving an opportunity for a short below 91.
And here is where I the problems of exiting and re-entry, and risk versus reward come up. The way that I saw it was we had come off a high with a long way to the bottom of the channel which meant a potential big fall. I feel that the stop loss should be above the swing high at 93.5 . Maybe 3 or 4pts risk for a big potential gain. I would do it in SIM, but would I do it with real money. Only time will tell.
4. Anyway after that the price fell following a nice even SL. It paused a few times at previous levels. A few contracts changed hands, and down it went again, until we got a proper SL break after hitting 45.
5. Made it to the previous LSH, and then trended down again.
6. Eventually halted for now below 30.
Today we tested upwards to the channel middle, and then fell to the lower limits. A nice clean AMT day, with a good SLA entry for the main move of the day. No real drama.
Pre-open.
Before the open we rejected yesterday's high at 85, came down to the 50% point at 75, and back up for a lower high, This indicated a downward direction, but madness can happen when the big money hits the market.
1. Opened down to 72 and moved into overlapping bars.
2. When price rose, it made it to the overnight highs, and rejected, suggesting a REV entry, but these would have failed.
3. We rose above friday's highs of 95 and onto 99. Here we reversed and retraced below the previous highs of 95 giving an opportunity for a short below 91.
And here is where I the problems of exiting and re-entry, and risk versus reward come up. The way that I saw it was we had come off a high with a long way to the bottom of the channel which meant a potential big fall. I feel that the stop loss should be above the swing high at 93.5 . Maybe 3 or 4pts risk for a big potential gain. I would do it in SIM, but would I do it with real money. Only time will tell.
4. Anyway after that the price fell following a nice even SL. It paused a few times at previous levels. A few contracts changed hands, and down it went again, until we got a proper SL break after hitting 45.
5. Made it to the previous LSH, and then trended down again.
6. Eventually halted for now below 30.
Wedensday 16th April 2014 Pre-market Review
Yesterday we traveled from the channel mean to the bottom and back to the mean again. Really big moves up and down. That may not happen again today.
Currently we are slightly above the mean, and we may move to the top of the channel around 565.
Overnight we had the usual limited movement. In the morning we tested 513 a few times, and then moved lower. This may be the mean of previous congestion from last week. This would normally indicate weakness, but the power of the open will most likely bypass the high of 513 if it wants to.
Channel bottom is near 420, and yesterday's low is all the way back to 404.
50% point is roughly at 460 also.
Yesterday we traveled from the channel mean to the bottom and back to the mean again. Really big moves up and down. That may not happen again today.
Currently we are slightly above the mean, and we may move to the top of the channel around 565.
Overnight we had the usual limited movement. In the morning we tested 513 a few times, and then moved lower. This may be the mean of previous congestion from last week. This would normally indicate weakness, but the power of the open will most likely bypass the high of 513 if it wants to.
Channel bottom is near 420, and yesterday's low is all the way back to 404.
50% point is roughly at 460 also.
Wedensday 16th April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
I had written out my notes for the day but decided to look again at the day after reading the Ghost thread in the evening. Overall for the day I felt that the price kept trying to get to a mean of 94 or 95 once the hinge started just before 10. The rest of the escapes from this mean were pulled back.
What should I do differently from today?
I noticed the when a parabolic fall reverses, waiting for a retracement can mean that entry is nearly 10pts away from the reversal. I should probably wait until a more solid DL or SL is broken, before looking for entries.
What should I do the same as today?
Keep watching for the rejection bars that I see nearly everyday. Especially if they happen near an level that I have deemed important in preparation.
Notes on the chart
1. At the open we had a rejection of the previous high, followed by the opportunity for a short. Then there was a retracement after the short was taken, that didn't break the previous LSH, but went above our entry and would have probably have taken out any stop limits.
The same sort of thing happened at the open on Monday, and at around 10am on Tuesday. These seem to happen quite often, and it appears that since we do not want to risk the loss of 3 or 4 points, we need to scratch at 1 point and re-enter as necessary.
2. As many have pointed out we can enter here on the rejection of the overnight range mean. If We are entering 1pt below the last bar and giving ourselves a 1pt stop, this would have been taken out on the next bar. So we may have to re-enter if possible during that bar.
I had written out my notes for the day but decided to look again at the day after reading the Ghost thread in the evening. Overall for the day I felt that the price kept trying to get to a mean of 94 or 95 once the hinge started just before 10. The rest of the escapes from this mean were pulled back.
What should I do differently from today?
I noticed the when a parabolic fall reverses, waiting for a retracement can mean that entry is nearly 10pts away from the reversal. I should probably wait until a more solid DL or SL is broken, before looking for entries.
What should I do the same as today?
Keep watching for the rejection bars that I see nearly everyday. Especially if they happen near an level that I have deemed important in preparation.
Notes on the chart
1. At the open we had a rejection of the previous high, followed by the opportunity for a short. Then there was a retracement after the short was taken, that didn't break the previous LSH, but went above our entry and would have probably have taken out any stop limits.
The same sort of thing happened at the open on Monday, and at around 10am on Tuesday. These seem to happen quite often, and it appears that since we do not want to risk the loss of 3 or 4 points, we need to scratch at 1 point and re-enter as necessary.
2. As many have pointed out we can enter here on the rejection of the overnight range mean. If We are entering 1pt below the last bar and giving ourselves a 1pt stop, this would have been taken out on the next bar. So we may have to re-enter if possible during that bar.
Thursday 17th April 2014 pre-market review
Overnight we sat above the mean of the March channel.
I would not expect the price to stay at the mean for another day, but I don't make the rules. I have a channel high of 560 and low of 416. The mean is roughly at 488 for the morning.
The overnight channel was from 492 to 500, giving a mean of 496 to watch for.
Yesterday's high and low were 524 and 479 respectively.
In the morning the price moved out of the ovenight range and back up to test yesterday's highs. We may reject those or more likely move on to the channel highs.
Overnight we sat above the mean of the March channel.
I would not expect the price to stay at the mean for another day, but I don't make the rules. I have a channel high of 560 and low of 416. The mean is roughly at 488 for the morning.
The overnight channel was from 492 to 500, giving a mean of 496 to watch for.
Yesterday's high and low were 524 and 479 respectively.
In the morning the price moved out of the ovenight range and back up to test yesterday's highs. We may reject those or more likely move on to the channel highs.
Thursday 17th April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
I spent the day looking for one good SLA entry, and it was mostly a day for REV entries. There were plenty of turns at previous levels and at double tops, etc..
I kept and eye on those rejections today, and I can see that I have to be fast, fast, fast if you want to trade them. Levels have to be prepared, and single click trading set up on the charts.
As someone mentioned in another journal, when we are not at the extremes of the channels we have to use the other levels that we can find in preparation.
Before the open we made it up to 516 and trailed off from this to 12 or 13. Just before the open we had a breakdown to 508, and couldn't get back to 512.
I was thinking we might test 16, or one of yesterday's highs on the open, since we are only a few points away, and price likes to stretch its arms when it wakes up.
1. On the open we did test 16 and were rejected. It made it down 504 which was 50% of the overnight range bottom to the morning high.
2. There is a higher low, which calls for a long, but it could easily have gone lower in the mad rush of the morning.
3. We tried to go above yesterday's high of 24, but failed to make more than a brief poke above the highs. The reversal was descisive when it started. This is an area for a REV entry.
4. When we went below the open at 12, it looked like we were going to get a turn back up, but that upturn was massively rejected at the morning high of 16. Could enter a short here also.
5. A third rejection of 16 happens, this time more slowly. We moved into a range of overlapping bars around this area.
6. We failed in two attempts to go down and one to go up. Time for another test upwards. Went through and rejected yesterday's highs again. We then broke the demand line.
7. We were stopped at 50% of the recent rise with big rejection bars forming a retracement. This does not give much confidence that a short would work out.
8. We had a pause after going through the highs and then what looked like becomng a little range, became a double top and price fell to hold below yesterday's high.
I spent the day looking for one good SLA entry, and it was mostly a day for REV entries. There were plenty of turns at previous levels and at double tops, etc..
I kept and eye on those rejections today, and I can see that I have to be fast, fast, fast if you want to trade them. Levels have to be prepared, and single click trading set up on the charts.
As someone mentioned in another journal, when we are not at the extremes of the channels we have to use the other levels that we can find in preparation.
Before the open we made it up to 516 and trailed off from this to 12 or 13. Just before the open we had a breakdown to 508, and couldn't get back to 512.
I was thinking we might test 16, or one of yesterday's highs on the open, since we are only a few points away, and price likes to stretch its arms when it wakes up.
1. On the open we did test 16 and were rejected. It made it down 504 which was 50% of the overnight range bottom to the morning high.
2. There is a higher low, which calls for a long, but it could easily have gone lower in the mad rush of the morning.
3. We tried to go above yesterday's high of 24, but failed to make more than a brief poke above the highs. The reversal was descisive when it started. This is an area for a REV entry.
4. When we went below the open at 12, it looked like we were going to get a turn back up, but that upturn was massively rejected at the morning high of 16. Could enter a short here also.
5. A third rejection of 16 happens, this time more slowly. We moved into a range of overlapping bars around this area.
6. We failed in two attempts to go down and one to go up. Time for another test upwards. Went through and rejected yesterday's highs again. We then broke the demand line.
7. We were stopped at 50% of the recent rise with big rejection bars forming a retracement. This does not give much confidence that a short would work out.
8. We had a pause after going through the highs and then what looked like becomng a little range, became a double top and price fell to hold below yesterday's high.
Monday 21st April 2014 pre-market review
We had a certain amount of confusion on Friday.
The day moved around a mean, and made it difficult to pick a good trade.
It was a good day for spotting holes in my abilities, and the discussions on the ghost thread have shown me that my prep work was lacking.
Too much focus was given to the long term channel extremes and recent highs and lows, but the means where price may oscilate were not focused on.
Hopefully I have learnt something from the last few days, and this week will see a big improvement.
At the moment we have an overnight range from 529 to 535 with a midpoint of 532.
With recent highs at 543, and lows at 520, 493, 478
We are nearing the March channel top of 550. So we may pass through this or turn back to the channel mean of 478.
We had a certain amount of confusion on Friday.
The day moved around a mean, and made it difficult to pick a good trade.
It was a good day for spotting holes in my abilities, and the discussions on the ghost thread have shown me that my prep work was lacking.
Too much focus was given to the long term channel extremes and recent highs and lows, but the means where price may oscilate were not focused on.
Hopefully I have learnt something from the last few days, and this week will see a big improvement.
At the moment we have an overnight range from 529 to 535 with a midpoint of 532.
With recent highs at 543, and lows at 520, 493, 478
We are nearing the March channel top of 550. So we may pass through this or turn back to the channel mean of 478.
Monday 21st April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
Today was a relatively slow day with less craziness at the open because there was no European trading due to the bank holiday. I felt that I was putting into practise, the things that I had learnt during the confusing times at the end of last week. We had another day of moving back and forward around a mean, and price didn't spring any surprises that I couldn't handle.
1. Opened at the mean of 32, and tried to go down out of the range. I was waiting to see if this was a fake out.
Niko had pointed out on a previous occasion that these fake outs from a range can be entered as it crosses back into the range, and is usually a low risk trade that should reach at least the mean of the range. In some previous cases I have seen it become the start of the big move of the day, but in this case a long entry would reach the mean of the range, but not quite the top of the range. One to keep an eye on anyway, for future days.
2. We fell out of the range again, before rebounding, this time to just below yesterday's high of 43. The rejection at this point does give the option of a short straight away, just below 38. These sort of entries are the ones that I need to become more confident on.
3. Here we have passed yesterday's high of 43, but we can make no headway, and I see this as a rejection of higher prices. We could put a short on around 41, because it we have visited the mean of 32 several times so far, but I would have probably waited until we had the first retracement for an entry near 38.
4. Ultimately it reached 17 before making a double bottom, with a strong rejection of the second bottom and at a slightly higher price. This indicates upward potential, and the SL was broken, and we moved upwards.
Today was a relatively slow day with less craziness at the open because there was no European trading due to the bank holiday. I felt that I was putting into practise, the things that I had learnt during the confusing times at the end of last week. We had another day of moving back and forward around a mean, and price didn't spring any surprises that I couldn't handle.
1. Opened at the mean of 32, and tried to go down out of the range. I was waiting to see if this was a fake out.
Niko had pointed out on a previous occasion that these fake outs from a range can be entered as it crosses back into the range, and is usually a low risk trade that should reach at least the mean of the range. In some previous cases I have seen it become the start of the big move of the day, but in this case a long entry would reach the mean of the range, but not quite the top of the range. One to keep an eye on anyway, for future days.
2. We fell out of the range again, before rebounding, this time to just below yesterday's high of 43. The rejection at this point does give the option of a short straight away, just below 38. These sort of entries are the ones that I need to become more confident on.
3. Here we have passed yesterday's high of 43, but we can make no headway, and I see this as a rejection of higher prices. We could put a short on around 41, because it we have visited the mean of 32 several times so far, but I would have probably waited until we had the first retracement for an entry near 38.
4. Ultimately it reached 17 before making a double bottom, with a strong rejection of the second bottom and at a slightly higher price. This indicates upward potential, and the SL was broken, and we moved upwards.
Tuesday 22nd April 2014 pre-market review
We have moved outside our current channel, and have to wait and see if this is a change in direction or a temporary overbought level. There is a previous daily swing high at 600, and we have returned to that area a lot in the past. But that would pull us well out of this channel.
In the short range we have an overnight high of 562, overnight low of 546, and mid point of 554.
Yesterday we had a low of 517 and also a lot of movement around the mean of 532.
Currently as I write we are moving up to test 562 again. It may require the power of the open to get past it.
We have moved outside our current channel, and have to wait and see if this is a change in direction or a temporary overbought level. There is a previous daily swing high at 600, and we have returned to that area a lot in the past. But that would pull us well out of this channel.
In the short range we have an overnight high of 562, overnight low of 546, and mid point of 554.
Yesterday we had a low of 517 and also a lot of movement around the mean of 532.
Currently as I write we are moving up to test 562 again. It may require the power of the open to get past it.
Tuesday 22nd April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review
A few REV entries today and an SLA that I missed. Happy enough with it overall. Not looking to overtrade, and was aware of my levels from the prep.
1. Before the open we were testing the high of 562, but could not break out.
On the open we broke out strongly, but we had a lot of overlap, and eventually only reached 68.
2. The double top is an opportunity for a short, and interestingly it turns at 57, which was 50% of the overnight low to the current highs.
3. I didn't see this as a retracement for a long in real time. Why? I don't know. Possibly looking for a break below the low of the previous bar. Looks like a mistake now.
4. Got to 76 and moved into a range. The demand line didn't break strongly, it just fell over in a lazy way.
5. Here there is an SL break and retracement for a higher low. There is an opportunity for a long which may only make it to the top of the range, but it is a valid trade once we understand the risks.
A few REV entries today and an SLA that I missed. Happy enough with it overall. Not looking to overtrade, and was aware of my levels from the prep.
1. Before the open we were testing the high of 562, but could not break out.
On the open we broke out strongly, but we had a lot of overlap, and eventually only reached 68.
2. The double top is an opportunity for a short, and interestingly it turns at 57, which was 50% of the overnight low to the current highs.
3. I didn't see this as a retracement for a long in real time. Why? I don't know. Possibly looking for a break below the low of the previous bar. Looks like a mistake now.
4. Got to 76 and moved into a range. The demand line didn't break strongly, it just fell over in a lazy way.
5. Here there is an SL break and retracement for a higher low. There is an opportunity for a long which may only make it to the top of the range, but it is a valid trade once we understand the risks.