Another Straight Line Analysis Journal

Wedensday 9th April 2014 Premarket review

For the last few days we have stayed outside the June 2013 channel, and we have moved well inside the channel from Novmeber 2012.

We may test of the top of this channel at approx 560, but the line of least resistance is down, and the next target would be the midpoint of this channel around 420 or so.

Overnight we changed from a range of 18->36 to a tighter range from 27->33.
In the morning we moved upwards to the highs from Monday
at around 42.

We can watch for support at 27 or at 18 if the price moves down.
After that yesterdays low was 490 which may also provide support.
 
BonScott said:
We can watch for support at 27 or at 18 if the price moves down.
After that yesterdays low was 490 which may also provide support.
More...

A minor tweak: "we can watch for [a lack of sellers below] 27 . . .".

As for 490, who knows? Will sellers find friends down there? Or will they have to accept what buyers are willing to pay at that lower level?

Sellers want high prices. Buyers want low prices.
 
Wedensday 9th April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

Wow, there was a lot of overlap and relatively large bars today.
Any attempt at entry was highly likely to be stopped out, unless a large risk was taken when placing stops.
This was a day for sitting mostly on the sidelines.


1. We opened with a mess of madness. Lots of overlap within a tight range.

2. Eventually broke down to 35. This was rejected and went back up to the highs again.

3. Moved back down to 35 with a lot of overlapping bars, and then after the double bottom we had a fast move up to the highs.

4. We paused, and then up to 57 the top of our 10 min channel. Double top then a fall to the 50% point of the move up.

5. Turn up at this point and reached 57 again.
 
Thursday 10th April 2014 Premarket Review

Well, we are back into the March channel and through the midpoint. The trend is still downward, but we have to prepare for a move in either direction.

After a big push up in the afternoon, we settled into ranging behaviour overnight.
We made a break in the morning to reach a high of 600, and after falling back from that, the price fell through the range, back down to the middle of the March channel.

Since then have moved away from the midpoint of the channel and we can watch for the channel highs at around 634.

The movement in the morning has being fairly wide, with a drop from 600 to 575, and a big rise again. Does this suggest a lot of buisness being done before the open?
 
Thursday 10th April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

A big fall today, and probably a very good day for those who trade multiple lots with staggered exits.
We did not make a try for the channel top, we barely made a try for the overnight highs.
Straight back down to the bottom of the channel, and a definite continuation of the downtrend.


1. Opened by rejecting overnight highs and moving down to the mean of the daily range. This was the 2nd rejection of these highs within half an hour.

2. Moved into a range here. At the end of the range we broke down to 76, had a small retracement and the possibility for a short.

3. We then fell straight through the overnight low to 62 which was the high yesterday before the FOMC announcment. Makes me think that the FOMC happened for nothing, all that action reversed so quickly.
Also the lack of a stop at the overnight low shows that it was irrelevant. Some other days it has been an important area for buyers and sellers.

4. At 62 we moved into consolidation for 15 minutes, failed in a poke below, and then tried to move upwards. SL from open was broken but no long was triggered.

5. We broke below 62 again, but went nowhere. After a retracement back into the range, we had a DL break and it fell to 25 with several pauses on the way, such as at 36 which was the double bottom yesterday.
 
Friday 11th April 2014 Premarket Review

Another big fall yesterday. I noticed the new channel that has been drawn from March to account for the current price action.

Overnight we moved into a range, and in then in the early morning we fell to reach the lows of the March channel.

After that we rose to the 50% point of the recent fall from 78 to 46. Price moved down from here and back up to the same point as I write this. There has been a lot of action for the premarket.

If we move up, the midpoint of the current channel is around 520.

If we go down we are coming close to the December and Febuary lows around 412.
This is also near the long term November 2012 channel midpoint.
 
Friday 11th April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

A few big moves today. A good entry will often determine how much of the move we get. Too late, and the price often stops us out.
We kept within the March range, but never quite made it to the mean.

1. On the open we tested preveious lows, than back to the middle of the morning range.

2. Tested the lows again, and if you want to see this as a 2nd rejection of a bottom, there is the possibility of a long at 53.

3. we reach 84 which is the middle of the overnight range and its preceeding hinge.

4. At this point I thought we had a failure to get above 84 congestion, a retracement, and the possibility of a short before the demand line had broken.

5. When we reached the bottom we made a higher low. There was the exact same price action as at the high (4), except in reverse, but I did not signal a long, until the retracement which occoured miles away.
This indicates to me that I might have had a short bias, as if I expect the shorts to happen, but for longs I needed some more information.

6. We made a doubletop just under 80, after a tight demand line break. Can short from here, which failed.

7. Later we have a double top at 95, and again can choose to short off this.
 
Monday 14th April 2014 Pre-market review

In the morning we bounced off the middle of the Nov 2012 channel, have moved back into our March channel.

We made a range overnight, and since the morning we have steadily risen and are currently sitting at the middle of recent congestion.

The middle ofthe channel is currently around 512, and we have long term lows below us at around 412, if it goes through those the next stop is the bottom of the Nov channel at approx 280.
 
Monday 14th April 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

The day was okay. Obviously getting good REV entries would improve the success rate and limit the risk, but there were enough good RET entries to make it a successful day. I felt it was a lot better than Friday for me. I tried to learn from the biases I held then, and I felt it flowed a bit more today. Chop was spotted quickly also, and generally most of us are avoiding the large overlapping bars quite well now.


1. Opened with a move up to 72 then broke below the demand line from earlier.

2. A retracement occoured for a short at 66, which stopped at the bottom of the little pre-market range, and ultimately went nowhere.

3. After another retracement we moved down again for a short at 64, which went into a series of overlapping bars around previous lows.

4. After falling to 53 we retraced to 62 which was 50% of the downtrend, and also the bottom of the lttile pre-open range. Can short at 56.5.

5. The price turned at 48, the 50% point of the move from the overnight low.

6. The SL was tested, and seemed to be holding, until it turned and back up for a potential long at 56, which only made it up to 62 again.

After this we had a lot of overlapping chop, and no decent trade entries. With this amount of overlap, the stops have to be moved out to unacceptable levels.

7. Eventually we made a higher low at 49 and moved up out of the hinging behaviour, for a long after retracement at 62.5.

8. Price rose and we made a little consolidation just above the opening highs, and since the price never fell below this the long direction looked most promising.

9. We were now out of the full range of the morning and into the longer term charts, looking initially at the previous highs from yesterday at around 94. We eventually made it to 84, before we rolled over and broke the DL.
 
Tuesday 15th April 2014 Pre-market Review

Again we are in the March channel, but we have not threatened the mid point yet. It looks to be around 505 today.
If we can eventually get that far, then we can watch for a push through to the highs or a rebound to the lows again around 535 or so.
While we are in a downtrend at the moment the channel is over 100pts wide, so we can have a lot of uptrend within that.

While I am typing I watched the price reject yesterday's high of 85.
It may take a few goes to get past it and onto the next high at 94, or it may fail and try for lower.

The power at the open can easily make these levels redundant, as buyers with lots of other people money to spend, can often be willing to pay higher prices. Wait and see.
 
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