Sure they're allowed to post. But it's no surprise that threads are in the state they are when moderators make the same sort of posts as those they're supposedly responsible for deleting. If this was your point, why not make it in your original post instead of just shooting from the hip for the sake of being cute?
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Another HUGELY successful $$$MR. MARKET$$$ pick
- Thread starter mrmarket
- Start date
Sure they're allowed to post. But it's no surprise that threads are in the state they are when moderators make the same sort of posts as those they're supposedly responsible for deleting. If this was your point, why not make it in your original post instead of just shooting from the hip for the sake of being cute?
I think some of you may not fully understand MM's methodology. He is not investing. He is not really picking stocks on fundamentals. He is trying to capitalize on a final push in a stock that has not only shown a lot of strength but has shown a really tight pattern. These are the stocks that trace what looks like a 45 degree line across the chart. That shows a couple of things, no big sellers and sponsorship. Someone is in there buying everytime the market stalls. Why? Maybe funds just love it, or maybe the CEO is trying to hit an options trigger or maybe they're fattening the thing up for a secondary, who knows? Of course, at some point the game's over, which is why he's out with his 15% and not trying to book a LT gain.
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
I think some of you may not fully understand MM's methodology. He is not investing. He is not really picking stocks on fundamentals. He is trying to capitalize on a final push in a stock that has not only shown a lot of strength but has shown a really tight pattern. These are the stocks that trace what looks like a 45 degree line across the chart. That shows a couple of things, no big sellers and sponsorship. Someone is in there buying everytime the market stalls. Why? Maybe funds just love it, or maybe the CEO is trying to hit an options trigger or maybe they're fattening the thing up for a secondary, who knows? Of course, at some point the game's over, which is why he's out with his 15% and not trying to book a LT gain.
The journal also shows some other aspects as did his web site.
1. Capitalization strategy.
2. Hold strategy.
3. Restart strategy.
4. No stop strategy.
A couple of paragraphs on each of these would round out the methodology, especially for those who hav not seen each as they developed.
Quote from Grob109:
The journal also shows some other aspects as did his web site.
1. Capitalization strategy.
2. Hold strategy.
3. Restart strategy.
4. No stop strategy.
A couple of paragraphs on each of these would round out the methodology, especially for those who hav not seen each as they developed.
You have gone over those points previously. I think it is possible for a trader to recognize there is some value in his selection methodology and apply their own money managment strategy.
Quote from mrmarket:
Posted: 10 Nov 2003 05:05 pm Post subject: DHI ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Veterans Day Pick
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Sometimes $$$MR. MARKET$$$ just loves to prove to the world that heâs oh so so good. Last week, the homebuilding stocks were downgraded by an ANALyst who decided they were priced too high due to the fact that our economy was heating up. The theory is that when the economy heats up, interest rates will rise and homes will no longer be affordable. Ho ho hoâ¦you murder me......
......DHI is really an example of a great $$$MR. MARKET$$$ momentum stock. This stock is like a freight train moving faster and faster. True, eventually there will be macroeconomic conditions that will slow this train down, but while it is slowing down, its stock price will keep going up. Thereâs just too much inertia for anyone to step in front of this train and stop it right now. So nice try Mr. ANALystâ¦weâll see you under the tracks. Next time, why donât you pick Baylor to beat Oklahoma? You might have a better chance of being correct.
Very nice analysis although it does look like it's a little overextended . But then again, I have seen many overbought stocks get even more overbought.
Good luck...
Nick
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
You have gone over those points previously. I think it is possible for a trader to recognize there is some value in his selection methodology and apply their own money managment strategy.
I agree. Mr. Market's selection methodology looks like it has some value. Just apply your own stops and you might have a nice long term swing trading strat.
OK. What I did was put your trades in chronological order, best I could deem, so I could get a picture of how you parlay a hypothetical investment of $10,000. Everytime one of these $10,000 investments parlayed through the trades until and if it turned into something you were holding as of 11/10/03, I started a new investment thread of $10,000. It would be best of course to know the actual order of the starting capitals and how they were reinvested. So this is just speculation; it is assuming you reinvested the capital at every turn, and that your sequence of trades is as I depicted.Quote from mrmarket:
You guys continue to bash my strategy, please give me your assessment of my last 53 trades, 47 of which have been WINNERS!!
The results aren't bad, but not great either.
Turns out you average 12.61% per trade, not 15%, in about 113 days (which is 16 weeks) on average, not 4 to 6 weeks.
It also turns out that because you hold losses instead of freeing up the cash to invest in the immediate next 'mr.market pick', you have to come up with more funds from somewhere to add to your capital. I counted at least 14 such injections of monies.
Your average holding period on a loss is 152 days, yet your average holding period for a winner is 104 days.
So remaining unknown is the cost of lost opportunities, the cost of deploying additional funding to new investments and the realization of principal saved by limiting losses. Just to offer an idea of what this means in so far as cost to you, if you're a month into a trade and losing 11%, and 19 months into another trade and losing 23%, and during those terms new opportunities arise, you now need to acquire more capital for the new stocks or forgo them, but if you cut the losses of your worst performers you would free up and could use that capital, and still be able to acquire additional capital for even more opportunities. Maybe there are three holdings currently you'd free up by so doing. Then, instead of holding for 113 days average, your average "hold-to-riches" period would also shorten up a bit, especially given the average holding time you seem to have to go through for losing positions as it takes you longer to have a loss become a winner, and as a consequence of that you may be able to compound the gains faster.
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Quote from gms:
OK. What I did was put your trades in chronological order, best I could deem, so I could get a picture of how you parlay a hypothetical investment of $10,000.
snip
It also turns out that because you hold losses instead of freeing up the cash to invest in the immediate next 'mr.market pick', you have to come up with more funds from somewhere to add to your capital. I counted at least 14 such injections of monies.
Your average holding period on a loss is 152 days, yet your average holding period for a winner is 104 days.
So remaining unknown is the cost of lost opportunities,
snip
. Then, instead of holding for 113 days average, your average "hold-to-riches" period would also shorten up a bit, especially given the average holding time you seem to have to go through for losing positions as it takes you longer to have a loss become a winner, and as a consequence of that you may be able to compound the gains faster.
Nice commentary.
At the persent time with all the injections you noted (14 or so), mr market did his restart with these 15 strams still in tact.
Lets say he wants to turn over his portfolio as he now construes it to make 15% on the portfolio.
Every 4 to 6 weeks he simply needs 15 new picks to make 15% for each turn of the portfolio. 15 picks every 25 days from this point onward. So far he has done about 80 picks in three years.
We all look forward to how he extracts himself from this dilemma. So far it has been by doing a restart when the problem gets toclose for comfort. We are now into the classic condition of seeing an approach go through a shut down yet once again.
He needs to drop in at least every other day with a pick to keep his ball and his game rolling. And of course he needs to have a zero tolerance from here on in for picking any failures whatsoever.
I almost feel like slipping a pick in every other day that works just for laughs.