Another GLD Autumn Rally?

[Cereal]

My new metals related positions opened today:

SLW OCT12 Vertical spread
Sold 1 Put of $34 for 1.96
Bought 1 Put of $32 for 1.13
Gross credit received + 0.81

Max Reward: Credit received minus comm
Max Risk: - 119 + comm
BE: 33.19

Objective: Will close position when I can obtain a net result of 80% of initial credit received.
*
GDXJ OCT12 Butterfly
Bought 1 Call of $22 for 1.38
Sold 2 Calls of $23 for 0.88
Bought 1 Call of $24 for 0.58
Gross debit paid - 0.20

Max Reward: 80 minus comm
Max Risk: Initial debit paid
BE: > $22.15 and < 23.85

Objective: Will close position when I can obtain 50% of max reward, that is 40

***

Comments always welcome.

 

[cactiman]

Quote from Cereal:

No bailout plan in this one. It's a win or lose proposition. Hoping to hold as long as possible to expiry. If position winning say 80% of maximum reward in the coming few days (because of a GLD fast run up) then I would close it before expiry.

Run up?
How about leap up?

 

[traderlux]

Quote from Cereal:

Since I see it moving yesterday I opened the following spread instead of trying the suggested butterfly strategy:


GLD SEP12
Sold 1 Put of $159 for 2.71
Bought 1 Put of $158 for 2.23
Gross credit received + 0.48

Max Reward: Credit received minus commissions
Max Risk: - 0.52 + commissions
BE: $158.52
*

Objective: If GLD continues rising and goes/stays above $159 will receive the reward.

....good deal....

Comments always welcome.

 

[cactiman]

Quote from cdcaveman:

so what are you doing.. just trading it outright with leverage or something?? these are things i would rather do then own the underlying..
on a Gld break out..
1. Price the otm call butterfly
2. look at a debit spread IE
3. ratio backspread ATM for a credit
4. Synthetic long

Less complex trades for me (all I know how to do!), with lots of time till expiration (helps me sleep better!):
January GLD 150/149 Bull Put Spreads
January GLD 165/164 Bull Put Spreads
March GLD 175 Calls
March SLV 30 Calls

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from cactiman:

Less complex trades for me (all I know how to do!), with lots of time till expiration (helps me sleep better!):
January GLD 150/149 Bull Put Spreads
January GLD 165/164 Bull Put Spreads
March GLD 175 Calls
March SLV 30 Calls

theres nothing complex about butterflys... great risk reward.. they get cheaper and cheaper as you go otm.. cheap bets on the market going up...
synthetics give you great leverage.. nothing complicated there either..
same risk as Underlying with a hell of alot less outlay...

butterflys are a little better then otm calls because they keep their value over time better and you still get a good payout .. and you don't even have to be nearly right to make money

 

[cactiman]

Quote from cdcaveman:

theres nothing complex about butterflys... great risk reward.. they get cheaper and cheaper as you go otm.. cheap bets on the market going up...
synthetics give you great leverage.. nothing complicated there either..
same risk as Underlying with a hell of alot less outlay...

butterflys are a little better then otm calls because they keep their value over time better and you still get a good payout .. and you don't even have to be nearly right to make money

Read about them both in passing, but haven't tried them yet.
Like what you're saying about Butterflies. Will check those out first...

 

[diaoptions]

Quote from cdcaveman:

theres nothing complex about butterflys... great risk reward.. they get cheaper and cheaper as you go otm.. cheap bets on the market going up...
synthetics give you great leverage.. nothing complicated there either..
same risk as Underlying with a hell of alot less outlay...

butterflys are a little better then otm calls because they keep their value over time better and you still get a good payout .. and you don't even have to be nearly right to make money

WRONG ...... Butterflies are cheapest when the body is ATM and the wings 1 strike OTM. And an OTM butterfly is useless.

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from diaoptions:

WRONG ...... Butterflies are cheapest when the body is ATM and the wings 1 strike OTM.

<font size="20"><font color="green"><b>LET ME SHOW YOU</b></font>

<font size="3">
aapl call flys on the weeklys..

ATM 660/665/670 = 1.09
OTM 665/670/675 = .79
OTM 670/675/675 = .38 </font>

 

[cactiman]

Quote from cactiman:

Read about them both in passing, but haven't tried them yet.
Like what you're saying about Butterflies. Will check those out first...

These are "Iron Butterflies" you're talking about?
Have some articles and videos about those already in my 'peuter.

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from cactiman:

These are "Iron Butterflies" you're talking about?
Have some articles and videos about those already in my 'peuter.

iron butterflys are just using both puts and calls...

the examples i used are all calls... 1 call lower strike -2 calls next strike up 1 call another strike up.. i'll show you a picture here in a sec