Another GLD Autumn Rally?

Quote from Cereal:

But wasn't last December when GLD hit its low in the last 12 months?
Just reminding.
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Thanks. Quite right. It did hit a low of 148.27 in December 2012.
But from July to early September 2012 it went from 143.97 to 185.85 (41.88 pts.), and from late September to early November 2012 it went from 154.19 to 175.46 (21.27 pts.).
Then after it fell to 148.27 in late December 2012, it rose to 174.00 in late February 2013 (25.73 pts.).
So another one of those 20+ point moves from its current 150-160 consolidation channel is all I'm looking for.
They've happened every Autumn and Winter for the last 3 years.
One more time Mr. Market?
We'll have to wait and see.
:)
 

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Quote from cactiman:

Thanks. Quite right. It did hit a low of 148.27 in December 2012.
But from July to early September 2012 it went from 143.97 to 185.85 (41.88 pts.), and from late September to early November 2012 it went from 154.19 to 175.46 (21.27 pts.).
Then after it fell to 148.27 in late December 2012, it rose to 174.00 in late February 2013 (25.73 pts.).
So another one of those 20+ point moves from its current 150-160 consolidation channel is all I'm looking for.
They've happened every Autumn and Winter for the last 3 years.
One more time Mr. Market?
We'll have to wait and see.
:)
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Sorry, went into a Futuristic Time Machine.
Change all those 2012s to 2011s, and the 2013 to 2012.
Weird...
:confused:
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

What was the driver ?
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The ghost of Jesse Livermore?

Anyway, I guess this is what happens when you're always looking out at Expiration Dates for your trades!
:p
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

my thoughts on ratios are that if you have to be careful closing in on opex ... if the underlying has a higher probability of closing between the strikes or near the bought strike.. just close it down... this is a trade your wanting a blow by the two strikes.. it helps neutralize your theta .. and as everyone says.. try to get a credit.. you don't have to 1 x2 it.. you can 2x3 it or whatever you need to.. to get the risk reward.. or credit if you want it..
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Thanks for the comments and idea.
I am going to analyze butterfly trades versus those credit spreads and see what I find thanks.

I've been following Gold and Silver for a couple of years. There's so much hype that one never can be sure what's gonna happen. In spite of it I am heavily invested in, mainly, Gold, through other instruments.

Sure the inflation expectation is there because of all the printing. But who knows WHEN and HOW MUCH will this metals bull market still go. No use to me if Gold takes another 20 years to double, for example.

In anycase one sure thing I've learnt is that Silver is a really dangerous market...
 
dangerous markets are perfect for options... IE outright premium strangles. .. ratios backspreads etc..... nothing like a stock or instriment getting cut in half when you have a good put backspread on..
 
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