You also may blowup and say,hmmm,I should have been better prepared
The harder you work the luckier you get

The harder you work the luckier you get
No doubt a good advice, but I have learned that it doesn’t work for me personally. The problem is that I am not very detail oriented (dangerous trait in this business lol), so I just would not TRUST any results from a simulation. There are just too many factors that can skew results (test period, data, assumptions, etc). I feel like you need to become an expert at backtesting to do it right. So instead I try to rely on common sense, money management, and intuition. I may be using my capital very inefficiently, but at least I will never look back after 10 years and say - Hm, that didn’t quite work as simulated.
P.S. I think the shorter the trading time frame, the more valuable back testing becomes. One reason for this is because forward testing will quickly prove or disprove your findings. So you don’t usually see many day trading systems that are robust, but you see lots of systems that kill it over a year and longer.
P.S.S. I know this is very sensitive subject and these are just my personal opinions fwiw.