Another Ameranth!

Back month down 28 and front month up 9. Wow! Now i know why a guy in market wizard lost his shirt in spread before he learned how to trade.
 
Hearing a few very prominent locals that mainly trade the spreads in the pit have pretty much blown out . . . some are saying up to 20 million in losses (of course it started around 5 to 10 million).
 
Quote from mcurto:

Hearing a few very prominent locals that mainly trade the spreads in the pit have pretty much blown out . . . some are saying up to 20 million in losses (of course it started around 5 to 10 million).
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Ouch!

That's gonna leave a mark.

Futures trading ain't for sissies...
 
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

Ouch!

That's gonna leave a mark.

Futures trading ain't for sissies...
More...

and I thought I was clever (and lucky) buying some Dec contracts on market at 524 last night... I thought it would be some easy momentum money. Whoever was shorting at 524 made a killing today.

... not a good day. I literally read the Michael Marcus interview in Market Wizards last week for the first time. Boy do I feel like an idiot. Set me back a few months....

.. Lessons learned: don't screw with limit days unless I'm already in at a great cost basis. And don't buy too many contracts when I get excited. And set a better physical stop losses for trades like this, not manual ones (although I was babysitting the trade)
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

and I thought I was clever (and lucky) buying some Dec contracts on market at 524 last night... I thought it would be some easy momentum money. Whoever was shorting at 524 made a killing today.

... not a good day. I literally read the Michael Marcus interview in Market Wizards last week for the first time. Boy do I feel like an idiot. Set me back a few months....
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Dang. :(

Keep at it. You'll get it back.

Good trading to all.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

and I thought I was clever (and lucky) buying some Dec contracts on market at 524 last night... I thought it would be some easy momentum money. Whoever was shorting at 524 made a killing today.

... not a good day. I literally read the Michael Marcus interview in Market Wizards last week for the first time. Boy do I feel like an idiot. Set me back a few months....

.. Lessons learned: don't screw with limit days unless I'm already in at a great cost basis. And don't buy too many contracts when I get excited. And set a better physical stop losses for trades like this, not manual ones (although I was babysitting the trade)
More...

Here's a few things that tipped me off..
Market was limit bid all overnight, and it opened up ONLY 23 higher (I believe)...that was a signal to me that the market was
not going to go limit bid today. I believe Marcus talks about markets that close limit bid generally open limit bid the next day....if not, then watch out...
ALSO, the corn was limit bid yesterday but only flat/weaker at the open - that's not much conviction.
I was feeling that my short corn bet would be good, and so far it is...
I didn't short the wheat, nor will I, though we could correct down to 432...the weak AND the strong have been flushed...
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

and I thought I was clever (and lucky) buying some Dec contracts on market at 524 last night... I thought it would be some easy momentum money. Whoever was shorting at 524 made a killing today.

... not a good day. I literally read the Michael Marcus interview in Market Wizards last week for the first time. Boy do I feel like an idiot. Set me back a few months....

.. Lessons learned: don't screw with limit days unless I'm already in at a great cost basis. And don't buy too many contracts when I get excited. And set a better physical stop losses for trades like this, not manual ones (although I was babysitting the trade)
More...

Shorting at limit up is EXTREMLY risky. What if they opened up limit up again and u cant buy it back? and then the next day another limit up 30 cents, cant buy it back again, and then another 30 cents. U can never buy it back. U are completly screwed if they dont come down. Of course in handsight, shorting there looks like a genius.
 
Here are some of my wild thoughts:

I think, just my little humble opinion, the price of grains has something to do with elections. Remeber how soybeans went through the roof back in 03-04? I am thinking since the politicians need the farmers so much, they might as well spend some money and buy all their grains and keep them happy, so they will get the votes.
 
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