Anecdotal bottom indicator

Quote from shortie:

Police: Jobless father kills family, self
CNN - 1 hour ago

LOS ANGELES (AP) — An unemployed man with an advanced finance degree who was despondent over his own financial problems shot and killed his wife, three children, mother-in-law and then himself in an upscale home in a gated community, police said Monday.

wow w t f
 
Quote from Cutten:

This is a classic:

One of my friends is in a small town in Italy. I was on the phone to him earlier today discussing the market crash. A policeman knocks on the door for some routine enquiry, and when he finds out my friend is discussing the market, he says "Sell everything, and buy gold!"

Now if a rural Italian policeman randomly starts talking about the market, saying sell all stocks and buy gold, *after* the market has just crashed 9% in one day (intraday lows) surely that has to be the ultimate contrary signal.

He may have been saying that for years.
 
Cutten,

Those kinds of thoughts certainly make one think. I remember reading a story back in the tech bubble days about a big name fund manager/trader, I unfortunately don’t remember who, was getting a taxi ride in NYC and he and the taxi driver started talking and after finding out what this guy did for a living, starting giving the fund manager reasons he should be buying this and that. After the cab ride, the guy decided things were in total euphoria and immediately started selling his holdings. It ended up being almost the exact top.

This kind of thing if repeated by many, not just one isolated incident, not in the business of finance giving advice to those in finance, would certainly get my attention as well.

Trendytrader,

I wouldn’t put to much faith in anything Fitch or any other rating agency says. Recent history should have shown you they don’t really do a very good job or have much credibility anymore. Do your own research and make your own decisions.

Good luck to all

BM
 
Quote from jficquette:

He may have been saying that for years.

he would make some nice money then - and probably would not police streets in italy...
 
The answer to your question is NO.

Trying to guess the markets bottom by what some Italian policeman has to say, or Cramer or the pope or anyone else is a flawed belief that has been passed around from newbie to newbie and repeated like a parrots squawk.

People starting to wank about the market or the economy, does not mean we are at a bottom. Things can get much worse from here and the market can tumble a lot more.
Look at the nasdaq highs and lows from the internet bubble, 5000 to 1000.





Quote from Cutten:

This is a classic:

One of my friends is in a small town in Italy. I was on the phone to him earlier today discussing the market crash. A policeman knocks on the door for some routine enquiry, and when he finds out my friend is discussing the market, he says "Sell everything, and buy gold!"

Now if a rural Italian policeman randomly starts talking about the market, saying sell all stocks and buy gold, *after* the market has just crashed 9% in one day (intraday lows) surely that has to be the ultimate contrary signal.
 
well said, when I see bottom feeders still trying to pick a bottom that means there is still greed out there.....
.....when that greed turns to fear....then maybe we will have a bottom....

....smart money value investors waits for the light at the end of the tunnel...
.....only fools rush in and get cut to ribbons by the falling knives to come.
patience.


Quote from Trendytrader:

Look the economy is going to take a major hit in all areas and with little to no credit (debt) available this will only accelerate the slow down. We are only in the start of a multi-year slowdown.....recession....

You guys seem to think that what took years of excess credit and monetary expansion will be fixed overnight.
 
Quote from Cutten:

This is a classic:

One of my friends is in a small town in Italy. I was on the phone to him earlier today discussing the market crash. A policeman knocks on the door for some routine enquiry, and when he finds out my friend is discussing the market, he says "Sell everything, and buy gold!"

Now if a rural Italian policeman randomly starts talking about the market, saying sell all stocks and buy gold, *after* the market has just crashed 9% in one day (intraday lows) surely that has to be the ultimate contrary signal.


Or maybe he is a messenger from above....
 
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