Andy's Less Random Walk

qlai said:
Can you elaborate on this please? Tape reading usually refers to very short term trading.
More...
My bad. Let me explain further.

I setup positions and wait for them to reach the target that I want. So money is made 3 ways: adjustments, time decay (if options sold) and meeting the pre-set target.

Positions are consistently tinkered with small adjustments, or maybe outright reverse OR rolls. These decisions are fast, and are due to how I perceive the market to be doing. I don't really do charting for these and generally just follow the security price.

This might not be the best way to trade, but I guess mine is mostly based on the feel of the market.

Clarification for charting: I do look at charts with various indicators, but mostly on weekends and sometimes at the end of big move days.
 
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Month     Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       Sec Start      Sec End   Cash Start      Cash End
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Jul       $189,400       $201,200       0              11,800         6.2%           $130,516       $139,700  $58,900         $61,500
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Good Month, most of the gain came from long term securities. Also, a +1000 delta AAPL position was reduced to almost nothing, with good profit.

Market has been sideways for some time now, undecided on which way to go. Good Luck to all.

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Year       Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       S&P Return %   Sec Start      Sec End     Cash Start   Cash End
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2021/07    $214,400       $201,200       -50,000        $36,800        17.16%         17.02%         $105,000       $139,700    $108,000      $ 61,500
2020       $121,700       $214,400             0        $92,700        76.17%         15.76%         $ 71,000       $105,000    $ 50,000      $108,000
2019       $ 72,700       $121,700       + 2,000        $47,000        62.90%         30.43%         $ 64,000       $ 71,000    $  9,000      $ 50,000
2018       $ 43,500       $ 72,700       +32,000        $-2,800        -3.50%         -6.59%         $ 36,000       $ 64,000    $  7,000      $  9,000
2017       $ 39,000       $ 43,000             0        $ 4,300        11.50%         18.74%         $ 34,000       $ 36,000    $  5,000      $  7,000       
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Something didn't seem right to me, so I looked again.

Most of the trade profit came from the AAPL +1000 delta position. With a little bit from some other setups.

Long term securities only contributed about $2500 of the $11800 increase.
 
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Month     Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       Sec Start      Sec End   Cash Start      Cash End
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Aug       $201,200       $217,000       0              15,800         7.8%           $139,700       $144,900  $61,500         $72,000
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Another Good Month. Apart from many small setups, two positions gave most of the return. GLD caused grief when it fell suddenly causing me to actually consult TA, but by the end of the month it generated some profit too.
- +500 Delta WMT position was liquidated with its run up and became positive again in it slowly.
- +300 Delta DIS position gave some profit but then pulled back before I can take all profit off the table.

All in all I am taking it a little easy and have tried to pare down the positions in this account.

I am uneasy for some time now, expecting a correction, which is very much due.

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Year       Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       S&P Return %   Sec Start      Sec End     Cash Start   Cash End
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2021/08    $214,400       $217,000       -50,000        $52,600        24.53%         21.57%         $105,000       $144,900    $108,000      $ 72,500
2020       $121,700       $214,400             0        $92,700        76.17%         15.76%         $ 71,000       $105,000    $ 50,000      $108,000
2019       $ 72,700       $121,700       + 2,000        $47,000        62.90%         30.43%         $ 64,000       $ 71,000    $  9,000      $ 50,000
2018       $ 43,500       $ 72,700       +32,000        $-2,800        -3.50%         -6.59%         $ 36,000       $ 64,000    $  7,000      $  9,000
2017       $ 39,000       $ 43,000             0        $ 4,300        11.50%         18.74%         $ 34,000       $ 36,000    $  5,000      $  7,000     
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Month     Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       Sec Start      Sec End   Cash Start      Cash End
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Sep       $217,000       $203,600       0              -15,800        -6.17%           $144,900       $126,800  $72,000         $76,600
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The correction I was waiting for, did happen. I had already whittled down positive delta positions in anticipation. Being a perennial bull, psychologically its very difficult for me to get into -ve delta positions, thus the drawdown.

- Made some money from options positions, which you can see by increased cash.
- Lot of paper loss in the long term positions, which are tech heavy.

Set up most of the positions for big swings up or down, as I am expecting a volatile market for some time.

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Year       Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       S&P Return %   Sec Start      Sec End     Cash Start   Cash End
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2021/09    $214,400       $203,600       -50,000        $39,200        18.28%         14.85%         $105,000       $126,800    $108,000      $ 76,600
2020       $121,700       $214,400             0        $92,700        76.17%         15.76%         $ 71,000       $105,000    $ 50,000      $108,000
2019       $ 72,700       $121,700       + 2,000        $47,000        62.90%         30.43%         $ 64,000       $ 71,000    $  9,000      $ 50,000
2018       $ 43,500       $ 72,700       +32,000        $-2,800        -3.50%         -6.59%         $ 36,000       $ 64,000    $  7,000      $  9,000
2017       $ 39,000       $ 43,000             0        $ 4,300        11.50%         18.74%         $ 34,000       $ 36,000    $  5,000      $  7,000      
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Month     Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       Sec Start      Sec End   Cash Start      Cash End
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Oct       $203,600       $237,400       0              33,800         16.60%          $126,800     $151,300   $76,600         $86,100
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It was a pretty good month after a weak September, although I would have preferred two fair months for consistency.

As noted last month, this account was set up to cope with a volatile market. With the run-up, it proved to be the right strategy.

Long term securities performed well, mostly due to Tesla. Option trades also fared well, but 3 weeks of Nov expiry are still left, and most of the theta decay happens in the last week.

I will be taking it a little easy till the end of the year, and will try to retain the profits.

In the United States, Halloween starts the holiday season, and I would like to take this opportunity to wish all readers a happy and healthy holiday season.


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Year       Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       S&P Return %   Sec Start      Sec End     Cash Start   Cash End
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2021/10    $214,400       $237,400       -50,000        $73,000        34.05%         22.61%         $105,000       $151,300    $108,000      $ 86,100
2020       $121,700       $214,400             0        $92,700        76.17%         15.76%         $ 71,000       $105,000    $ 50,000      $108,000
2019       $ 72,700       $121,700       + 2,000        $47,000        62.90%         30.43%         $ 64,000       $ 71,000    $  9,000      $ 50,000
2018       $ 43,500       $ 72,700       +32,000        $-2,800        -3.50%         -6.59%         $ 36,000       $ 64,000    $  7,000      $  9,000
2017       $ 39,000       $ 43,000             0        $ 4,300        11.50%         18.74%         $ 34,000       $ 36,000    $  5,000      $  7,000
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Month     Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       Sec Start      Sec End   Cash Start      Cash End
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Nov       $237,400       $223,700       0              -13,700         -5.77%         $151,300      $132,900   $86,100         $90,800
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Not the best of months. Anything I touched turned out real bad. DIS, GLD hurt me on the downside, and AAPL caused grief by shooting up.

I am not the right person to value a company, still these mega-caps are sitting on some real high valuations.

I hope the big O has just been an excuse for profit taking. Market should be back with what it was doing by end of year, or ealy next.

Hope too see you guys in New Year. Best wishes.


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Year       Start          End            Cash In/Out    Change $       Change %       S&P Return %   Sec Start      Sec End     Cash Start   Cash End
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2021/11    $214,400       $223,700       -50,000        $59,300        27.65%         20.15%         $105,000       $132,900    $108,000      $ 90,800
2020       $121,700       $214,400             0        $92,700        76.17%         15.76%         $ 71,000       $105,000    $ 50,000      $108,000
2019       $ 72,700       $121,700       + 2,000        $47,000        62.90%         30.43%         $ 64,000       $ 71,000    $  9,000      $ 50,000
2018       $ 43,500       $ 72,700       +32,000        $-2,800        -3.50%         -6.59%         $ 36,000       $ 64,000    $  7,000      $  9,000
2017       $ 39,000       $ 43,000             0        $ 4,300        11.50%         18.74%         $ 34,000       $ 36,000    $  5,000      $  7,000
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Andy, are you doing trading mostly for fun these days? Eg. your family doesn't really depend on that income.
Are you still working somewhere else or effectively retired?
 
ValeryN said:
Andy, are you doing trading mostly for fun these days? Eg. your family doesn't really depend on that income.
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Thanks for asking Valery, this truly is a fun account for me and comprises a very very low percentage of our net-worth. It was started to prove to my wife that I can support the family by trading, and it just kept on growing. Meanwhile our net-worth became enough to retire.

Truthfully, I always treated the account as just a number and not money. And money is not real!

I am hungry for knowledge and want to master this game of markets. Small time setbacks don't matter much and I just keep devouring more information from everywhere. I started looking at the book that you recommended in your journal, and will try to code it when I take a sabbatical.


Are you still working somewhere else or effectively retired?
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We are in early 40s and don't see any reason to retire, as we are in very good paying and comfortable jobs. I don't push myself in the job, and take it easy.

Hope to meet you sometime when I visit my brother in Canada :)
 
qlai said:
Can you elaborate on this please? Tape reading usually refers to very short term trading.
More...
%%
NOT sure why any would tape read unless its short term?? BUT my CPA likes rows of numbers+ not charts, so takes all kinds to make a market.......... Buts its really the same data, except charts paint a picture[which i like] with the number:caution::caution:
 
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