And we are UP again...so much for the -2% Monday gap down fears. Same thing over and over.
- Thread starter noddyboy
- Start date
I am holding 50 July 17th 200 GS puts in at 4.61. I was looking for a fade on the close on Fri. Did not get it.
Do not think earnings volatility has been incorporated into GS options prices yet. GS reports earnings on 7/15. Morgan and Wells on 7/14. Incorporation of earnings vol premium should cover .50.
GS was up 8.73 on Friday on above average volume.. Any downward move Monday should shake out some of those holding out for a little more.
Perhaps not the brightest trade but it is fun.
Do not think earnings volatility has been incorporated into GS options prices yet. GS reports earnings on 7/15. Morgan and Wells on 7/14. Incorporation of earnings vol premium should cover .50.
GS was up 8.73 on Friday on above average volume.. Any downward move Monday should shake out some of those holding out for a little more.
Perhaps not the brightest trade but it is fun.
You are trying this at a very interesting time. Something is awry in the markets, and the disconnect is pronounced.
I speak to you from the index side of things, not individual stocks which is your main focus. But hear me out...
It boils down to the outward performance of tech (NASDAQ) compared to the DOW and SP.
Before this COVID shit, the NASDAQ was above the NDX for years. It held a comfortable 200-point lead over NDX. Once the lockdowns started to come, they flipped. NDX now commands a lead over NAS, and the last time they tried to cross, they came very close. Almost equal IIRC, about a month ago?!? But here we are again, NDX has a very wide lead over the NAS, but now over 200 points.
And the SP and DOW are lagging way behind the NAS. Usually, they are kinda' making new highs fairly close together, but NDX and NAS have pulled so far ahead of the others, so fast, it makes your head spin.
DOW still 4000 points below it's ATH, SP about 350ish below?
Have to ask yourself, why is that? Well, we know why tech leads...It is because people use tech while the world is working, and they use tech while the world is broken.
If yer stuck at home, yer gonna' use AMZN, not DAL or BA.
But here comes Q2 earnings at an unprecedented time, with infinite QE and much less, if any, forward guidance, and Trump/Biden sticking each other with pitchforks in an election year. Gold is near a decade high. Things to think about.
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I updated my journal recently. Go read it, so you can absolutely understand why you should STFU about zero risk.
I'll check it out however futures clombing even higher as the night progresses
Dow Jones 30
26,140.0
DERIVED
22:17:12 | Futures
+163.0 +0.63%
S&P 500
3,195.62
DERIVED
22:17:11 | Futures
+17.12 +0.54%
Nasdaq
10,894.50
DERIVED
22:17:12 | Futures
+57.25 +0.53%
SmallCap 2000
1,432.75
DERIVED
Actually, that gave me an idea to visually represent why I have been so pensive on the longs since this latest rush to the moon...Another journal update in order.
I was wrong, tesla up done my prediction. 65+
Amazon up 25
Too too too too much euphoria now. Not going to last!!!!