...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

[Overnight]

Is there a specific reason you don't trade ETFs(commissions, leverage, broker/platform), or it's just Futures is what you used to?

Futures is what I encountered first when I looked into trading full-time about 6 years ago, and liked it's lower cost for entry, easy-to-understand rules, better tax treatment, and robust price-action compared with other instruments.

So I stuck with it and tried my darndest to learn all I could about them. The platform and broker I chose when I started also were futures-focused, so it just all gelled into futures only.

 

[Overnight]

Futures is what I encountered first when I looked into trading full-time about 6 years ago, and liked it's lower cost for entry, easy-to-understand rules, better tax treatment, and robust price-action compared with other instruments.

So I stuck with it and tried my darndest to learn all I could about them. The platform and broker I chose when I started also were futures-focused, so it just all gelled into futures only.

Actually, I have to amend that. Forex is what I encountered first. I recall trying some forex sim back then, and quickly did not like it for what reason I cannot recall. Then I encountered binary options, gave that a try in sim. Quickly didn't like that as well. Then came the futures.

Sorry, my chronology is a bit awry because back then I was dealing with a bit of family trauma at the same time. Timelines and memory are a bit askew there.

 

[Overnight]

A shitty ass week to be sure. Best performance was on Wednesday, digging myself out of a hole I made for myself by "locking in a loss" with a down leg, which didn't work. So I came out ahead by a hair after commies.

I just can't do that overnight hold thing at all-time highs again. I got burned the last two times I tried it. Sux, because I have missed a fuckton of movement over the past 6 months. So I'm stuck trying to daytrade. Bastards!

Closing trade #6 chafed my ass, because once again, I was too wimpy to hold through China data early this morning, and the potential earning blowout today.

Today's re-entry was at just the right point where I had to watch all it's down movement through the day, only to see it finally recover in the end. I've been trying to discipline myself in waiting for that daily dip in range before it shoots higher later on, but Monday, the day I stayed out, going long at ANY point in the day would have been a winner by RTH close. So I figured today would be another day like that, what with the positive China data. WRONG, lol!

Rest of the week was not so kind, and this seems to me to be indicative of a hesitant long-term market topping issue.

 

[Overnight]

So the week was going well, but then comes Wednesday, and the bullshit of "average pricing and the NinjaTrader software problem". It bit me again.

In the black circle you can see the trade I'm mad as hell about, because Ninja duped me once again. There is a severe problem with how the software interacts with CME data.

Here's the trade I had open at the time...

I shut down the machine that night (yesterday), and when I woke up, the software did it to me again.

This was the position I had displayed in Ninja software...

Long at 7706.75. Fine. But when I rebooted the machine to start the new day this morning, here's what I saw on the chart, if you can visualize it...

So my chart showed that I was long from 7688.75.

And when the thing went to 7692 this morning, I bailed to capture some profits. Except because of the illusion, it was a 15 point loss because the position was really a long at 7706.75. It totally messed up my head for the rest of the day, so I had no real focus.

This is, I suppose, the risk you take when holding through the overnight session, then daytrading during the day session, and maintaining another overnight position in the same contract/month through the close. Either the CME, or Ninja, or whomever, doesn't know how to handle it, in order to figure it out properly. And before anyone says to me, "You should know what positions you are in, it is not the responsibility of the software or the exchange", I call BS. You pay $1000 for a piece of software focused on the task of trading, it should be able to keep track of WTF you are doing. And the exchange needs to stop with the "average" thing on ONE contract! My position is my position! What "average" is there on a single contract?

Effectively, I came out at BE for the week.

And to that I must "Takei Turret" it. I need some hot water and dry oatmeal.

Has anyone else faced this issue?

 

[SteveH]

Yeah, I feel your grief. You've reminded me why I swore off very high winning pct trading soon after I first started futures 16 years ago. Upside-down reward to risk ratios wear on the emotions too much. It can drive the mind to do some crazy things in real-time.

 

[Overnight]

Yeah, I feel your grief. You've reminded me why I swore off very high winning pct trading soon after I first started futures 16 years ago. Upside-down reward to risk ratios wear on the emotions too much. It can drive the mind to do some crazy things in real-time.

My current beef is with Ninja software, not "high winning pct trades".

 

[Overnight]

Continuing on...An ok week, but one that could have been much much better. I still have the uncanny knack of picking a long entry that will then see the market fall for a day by many points, only to recover to profit just a little bit in the interim, then drop again. This was very prevalent in my Thursday entry.

It popped to ~15ish points of profit for a bit, then sank. Repeat. And repeat again. And again. Jeez. My target of 30 points was too high, butting against the records, so managed to bail today for only 20ish points when I moved it down to 20ish points.

I have a long entry at ~7902 on Sep NQ (not reflected here) with the idea that by September, the NQ will make a new record high since yesterday. I'm a glutton for punishment? I really dislike playing the long game at record highs, but have been reading some analyst writings who make good arguments as to why the bull can continue to grind up. It is difficult for me to resist. Maybe Alphabet on Tuesday can help boost this puppy some more.

Flom.

 

[CrashProof]

Good trading... Keep it up.

 

[Overnight]

Welp, as this week has shown, I am still the MASTER at picking ultimate extremes in the wrong direction.

NOBODY can match my skill at doing the exact wrong thing, at the exact wrong time.

But I did stick to the plan this time! So that's a plus.

The plan was to go long and sit on it.

But as this week unfolded and resistance kept forming, I could not go long on the June NQ contract because of this ATH shit. I was very very tempted but sat on my hands, because while everything looked golden and Wednesday came around, Powell spewed his shit, and I thought about an October 2018 scenario. I could NOT get myself caught up in something like that with TWO or THREE contracts, like I did in January 2018. So I had to wait and see. I cannot BELIEVE the market reacted so strongly down just because the Fed didn't intimate anything about a rate cut. Why the hell would they? They already went 180 degrees earlier and slashed their plans for rate raises to zero for the year...So why in the HELL was everyone thinking they'd go full retard and start cutting again? It is like a large lumbering aircraft. You just stay steady on the controls and let the ship right itself. You don't willy-nilly on something like the rate window while the ship is finding it's own level. Why was everyone expecting this?

Anyways, here we are. A week with no trades, just sitting on this one swing waiting for it to recover. Missed out on a lot of action, but saved my ass in case shit kept going awry.

Man, sometimes I hate swing trading. Especially when you get at the top of a swing and watch the thousands in potential profit vanish before your eyes because you're stuck due to visions of 20% corrections dancing in yer head.

Yes, that was last night's statement. My how things change in a day for a swing position in NQ. As of latest update, the settlement price today on the position will be 7896.25.

So my debit will be -$125, not -$2,750.

Great stuff!

I need a drink.

 

[Overnight]

Hmm, I noticed something when looking at those settlement prices...

Damn, someone got in on the Mar 2020 contract only 60 points above today's close? That's a drop in the bucket!