...And They Have a Plan. (Live.)

[vanzandt]

I'll echo Tiddlywinks remark, I too truly am sorry you lost money.
You got mad at me when I warned you back on 12/15 -12/16

There is no Santa rally though.
3 months out.... you're f'd.
Trade accordingly.
-vz

And we'll use a 3 month time-frame. For no other reason than to eliminate the noise in between. Although I think I nailed the top.
That run-up yesterday was a classic "blow-off top".

I mean it doesn't get any better.
But we shall see.

But whatever. You said back then you were a survivor so.... here we all are. Survivin' away.

That top was obvious though.
I wish you'd have listened.

 

[tango29]

I appreciate the honesty and posting the trades. I will also agree with Tiddlywinks, there is always something and sometimes best to eat one before it gets real bad. I have had a couple of those over the years, and I have had my butt handed to me.
For me and I admit it may not have a researchable backing, when things go bad or I think things should go bad I need to hold on and get a stop in and let that prove my hypothesis right or wrong. An example being the tech wreck era. I had a feeling it had to end bad, and I pulled back a good year early on a bunch of holds that went ballistic for that next year. Another was the financial collapse, I kept saying there were too many McMansions being built and bought, and at least around here there were not enough people with that kind of income to actually keep affording the lifestyle. I was about 2 years early in that one, but also kept holding onto a couple stocks that got creamed because I didn't have a stop in and kept telling myself it would be temporary. I think Boeing is one as of now I got right. I kept hearing the gurus saying get back in Boeing, but when these companies screw up like they have it is usually just the beginning, and it turns out it has been one thing after another for that clown show. Wells Fargo is another example of when a real bad first shoe drops, plan for more.
Anyway the adage of take the loss and live to trade another day seems to be a good one.
Peace, and I hope you keep posting.

 

[Overnight]

I'll echo Tiddlywinks remark, I too truly am sorry you lost money.
You got mad at me when I warned you back on 12/15 -12/16





But whatever. You said back then you were a survivor so.... here we all are. Survivin' away.

That top was obvious though.
I wish you'd have listened.

VZ, you are referencing pot stocks in the GREEN thread, which I do not trade. I still have the conviction that when the federal gubment legalizes pot, those stocks will shoot through the roof. That is my conviction on those.

That has no bearing on the broader index averages.

But thank you for the condolences on the latest loss. I still remember back in 2018 your PM after the first shitty loss to stick to my guns, which gave me solace and keep on truckin'. I'm trying, man, I'm trying. Fucking Putin got in the way.

 

[Overnight]

...
It seems you haven't learned that there will ALWAYS be a Putin, a possibility of geopolitical conflict, some sort of catastrophe somewhere, some governmental policy or regulation, or, or, or that affects the markets....

IMO, what you should have learned was a method or means for acknowledging when the trade is wrong and to make a correction. You can not honestly say there were not opportunities to take some sort of corrective or loss-minimizing action during the entire holding period you endured.

Dude, there was no Putin from the time I started actively trading the averages, in 2017, until now. The irony is that I started studying this whole trading shit in 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea. I was not paying attention to the geopolitics at that time, because I was studying the techniques and mechanics of trading CL, and NOT the percentage or price-action of indices.

...NEXT!!

Exactly. What gives me joy is I still have so many other futures choices. I am not locked into the indices. I do not have to revenge trade an index to make back a loss. I still look at live cows on occasion, and it is in a comfortable range which seems to have topped in the mid 130s. Hmmm

NEXT!

 

[Laissez Faire]

In my opinion, in trading, you need to assume full responsibility of your own actions. Blaming Putin will not help you now or in the future as history will repeat itself. It's quite possible this was the way the market was headed anyway as the FED moving out of the markets and hiking rates isn't exactly helping the markets either.

Buy and hold (on for dear life) is okay with investments or non-leveraged positions.

With leveraged positions, I think it's mandatory with a stop or at least getting out when your thesis was wrong. This is basically the fallacy of a high win rate strategy where you're periodically in deep drawdown. One day it doesn't work and that one loss will usually sting quite a bit.

TL;DR - if you employ this "strategy" again you will at some point repeat the same large loss. It's unavoidable.

 

[easymon1]

I still look at live cows

What's your take on cows?

 

[Overnight]

What's your take on cows?

My current take is that it is curiously stuck in the 130 range, and has been for quite a while. Unless we get some serious herd culling due to diseases like hoof and mouth, the 140 area (which was briefly hit some months ago) is the top, and will be rangebound between 120-140

 

[vanzandt]

VZ, you are referencing pot stocks in the GREEN thread, which I do not trade. I still have the conviction that when the federal gubment legalizes pot, those stocks will shoot through the roof. That is my conviction on those.

That has no bearing on the broader index averages.

But thank you for the condolences on the latest loss. I still remember back in 2018 your PM after the first shitty loss to stick to my guns, which gave me solace and keep on truckin'. I'm trying, man, I'm trying. Fucking Putin got in the way.

well, no, we were talking about the broader indexes. But whatever.

Tbh, the bubble, at least in tech, would have popped anyway with or without Putin.
There's no way those valuations could have been maintained.
I mean it was complete bs. I wrote about it a dozen times in Stoney's thread.
Who would buy a business that even with 30% yoy revenue growth, still wouldn't pay itself off for 75 years. The 30% doesn't go to infinity. I don't care how good the company is.
So for me at least, the top was obvious. In tech.

 

[Overnight]

Update from the previous trade entries. Been a long slog trying the buy hold roll strat. It obviously failed in this bear market. Never saw what a war+QT+high inflation could do with such high stock valuations. It did a lot. Oy!

Yep, here's the sucky-ass update from last trade #35...

Yes, Mayday sucked ass. That's when I said I needed to GTFO, to preserve capital. Have been taking fliers here and there recently with stop and targets, but I can assure you, they have ALL BEEN LONGS!

Trades 36-39 were real, but trades 44 and 45 care NOT! Fucking NT7 Journal fails again, even after that long break. Look at trade 41 exit point with trade 44 entry point. NO! Then look at the entry and exit columns. My entry is not my target, and my exit is not my entry!

Anyways, since I have gotten back into scalping with defined ranges I will endeavor to continue the journal in a normal fashion, with weekly updates on Fridays. Buy, hold, roll would have worked this week, but weeks like this have tempted me before to try it. I ain't getting fooled this time. Not with Powell on the "delete cash" button.

Of course, it is my nature to always have a long in some fashion, and I do have one...

That entry was made on Fed decision day on May 15th, when the Dow jumped 1000 points. I neglected to set a target that night because I thought it would go a bit higher the next day. Well, we know what happened the next day. It fell 1100 points from THERE! And then onward and downward. Le sigh.

Frak.

 

[MacBookProHo]

here's the sucky-ass update
View attachment 287607
sucked ass

That's a lot of trading red. But hang in there....It Could Happen,