And The Race Is On - Daily Gallup Tracking Romney +2% Over Obama

[jem]

So Ramussen has Romney up by 3
Gallup has Romney up by 2
CNN Obama up by 9.

Who do you think is rigging their poll and lying their asses off?

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

New CNN poll released today- Obama +9



http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...r-gap-and-likeability-keep-obama-over-romney/



(CNN) - President Barack Obama holds a nine-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney thanks in part to the perception that the president is more likeable and more in touch with the problems facing women and middle class Americans, according to a new national poll.

A CNN/ORC International poll released Monday also indicates a large gender gap that benefits Obama, but the public is divided on which candidate can best jump-start the economy.



According to the poll, 52% of registered voters say if the presidential election were held today, they would vote for the president, with 43% saying they would cast a ballot for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who is making his second bid for the White House. The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, a few days after former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania suspended his bid for the GOP nomination. Even though former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas continue their long-shot bids for the nomination, Romney is now generally considered the presumptive nominee.

The survey indicates women voters back Obama over Romney by 16 points (55%-39%), virtually unchanged from an 18-point advantage among women for the president in CNN polling last month.

The poll was conducted two days after Democratic strategist and CNN contributor Hilary Rosen created a controversy by saying that Ann Romney "never worked a day in her life."

"That remark may have little long-term effect on women voters," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "By a two-to-one margin, the women surveyed saw President Obama as more in touch with the problems facing American women today."

Half of those questioned say that Obama is more likely to stand up for what he believes, with only 29% saying that about Romney. Nearly half say that Romney is more likely to change his position on the issues for political reasons, just 39% saying the same thing about the president. Obama has double-digit leads over Romney on likeability, honesty, confidence, values, leadership and almost every other characteristic tested, with one important exception.

"Obama and Romney are essentially tied on who is more likely to get the economy moving again, and that may provide Romney an opening to chip away at Obama's current overall lead," says Holland.

According to the poll, Obama holds a 48%-43% margin over Romney among crucial independent voters. The survey also indicates s generation gap, with all age groups, except those 65 and older, backing Obama. And the poll points to an income divide, with the president holding a 20-point lead over Romney among those earning less than $50,000 per year, while those making more than that figure divided between the two candidates.

Obama's likeability and strong performance on personal characteristics helps explain why three-quarters of his supporters questioned say their vote will be a vote for Obama, not a vote against his opponent. By contrast, more than six in ten Romney supporters say their choice will be mostly be a vote against Obama.

"That's a significantly higher level of anti-incumbent voting than polls found in previous years. In 2004, for example, 55% of Democratic nominee John Kerry's supporters said their choice of Kerry was really a vote against President George W. Bush. The question for 2012 is whether Romney has to provide his supporters with more reasons to vote for him in order to win, or whether a negative anti-Obama message is enough, given that historically high level of anti-incumbent voting," adds Holland.

Two-thirds say they have made up their minds, with just 29% saying they could change their minds between now and November. As for handicapping the election, right now Americans don't think Romney has a good chance of winning the White House. Only 35% said Romney will be victorious in November.

"That is certainly not a prediction of what will happen, of course, but it is worth noting that in the last four presidential elections, the public was able to correctly pick the winner in polls taken in the spring or early summer," adds Holland.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

when did they close the betting?

From May to election day Intrade had Obama up all but 3 weeks in 2008

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

So Ramussen has Romney up by 3
Gallup has Romney up by 2
CNN Obama up by 9.

Who do you think is rigging their poll and lying their asses off?

The 3 other most recent polls had Obama up by +4,+7 and +8.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Rasmussen presidential poll in mid April 2008 had McCain up by + 7

 

[jem]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

The 3 other most recent polls had Obama up by +4,+7 and +8.

we have already looked at some of those...

abc/WAPO has polls in which they over sample democrats by 7-11 points.

That is garbage AK and you know it.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

we have already looked at some of those...

abc/WAPO has polls in which they over sample democrats by 7-11 points.

That is garbage AK and you know it.

They over sample democrats because there are more registered democratic voters jem

If you randomly call 100 registered voters,more of them are likely to be democrats.Thats not bull shit,that is facts and odds

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

The 3 other most recent polls had Obama up by +4,+7 and +8.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:
Rasmussen presidential poll in mid April 2008 had McCain up by + 7

Looks to me these polls aren't very accurate, including your favorites.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Lucrum:

Looks to me these polls aren't very accurate, including your favorites.

The Rassmussen poll from April 2008 certainly wasn't and their polls in April 2012 aren't either imo

 

[jem]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

They over sample democrats because there are more registered democratic voters jem

If you randomly call 100 registered voters,more of them are likely to be democrats.Thats not bull shit,that is facts and odds

You will also find that many of those democrats are dead or named mickey mouse. You have seen those voter registration drives. Some of them get paid by the name.

if you want to be statistically accurate you measure the anticipated turnout. Which would be determined by looking at past historical turnouts. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out how to do polls correctly, we do not even need to be debating this.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:


if you want to be statistically accurate you measure the anticipated turnout.

I disagree.1000 calls,the answers are the results of your poll.No need to measure or anticipate