And Ron Paul takes the lead in Iowa

Free Thinker · Dec 19, 2011

Quote from DAS Trader:

Not to mention that some of the attacks levied against Ron Paul are disingenuous at best.

This is going to go one of two ways. Either the GOP will get behind Ron Paul and nominate him as their candidate, or Barack Obama will win another four years. Ron Paul's supporters absolutely will not vote for another GOP candidate so the GOP is going top have to decide how important the White House truly is.

the dems are worried about romney not paul. romney is the only sensible republican. intrade gives paul a 5% chance of beating obama. would you invest in this stock?
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326

Max E. · Dec 19, 2011

Thats because he only has a 7-8% chance of winning the primary, if he was to win the primary he goes to 30-40% by default, as does any one of the republican candidates, simply because Obama is running on weakness.

Romney is only 30% chance to win the presidency, and its pretty much a foregone conclusion he will win the primary, but thats because he still hasnt won the primary. If he wins he will be at 50% on Intrade.

Quote from Free Thinker:

the dems are worried about romney not paul. romney is the only sensible republican. intrade gives paul a 5% chance of beating obama. would you invest in this stock?
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326

DemZad · Dec 19, 2011

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Thats not true, there are tons of people who will vote for Ron Paul who will still plug their nose and vote for anyone but Obama. Obama is basically the antithesis of Ron Paul, so lots of people will still vote for Romney if he comes in, if for no other reason, then because he wants to repeal Obamacare.

Most polls indicate that around 70% of his supporters won't vote for anyone else. They will write him in even if he does not run under a third party. Speaking of which, we have a wager about this don't we?

Maverick74 · Dec 19, 2011

I'll on record and say that Ron Paul wins Iowa and will never be heard from again in another state. I hate to agree with Vhehn, but he is right. The christian conservatives run Iowa and they love Ron Paul. What is more shocking in my view is that a mormon is getting 20% of the vote. Romney is a lock to win this thing and I'll bet anyone who wants to take the other side. Giuliani got like 1% of the Iowa vote when he ran as a moderate in 2008. The fact that Romney is getting 20% speaks volumes.

Max E. · Dec 19, 2011

I dont know do we?

Quote from DAS Trader:

Most polls indicate that around 70% of his supporters won't vote for anyone else. They will write him in even if he does not run under a third party. Speaking of which, we have a wager about this don't we?

DemZad · Dec 19, 2011

Quote from Maverick74:

I'll on record and say that Ron Paul wins Iowa and will never be heard from again in another state. I hate to agree with Vhehn, but he is right. The christian conservatives run Iowa and they love Ron Paul. What is more shocking in my view is that a mormon is getting 20% of the vote. Romney is a lock to win this thing and I'll bet anyone who wants to take the other side. Giuliani got like 1% of the Iowa vote when he ran as a moderate in 2008. The fact that Romney is getting 20% speaks volumes.

Indeed it does; it is indicative of the media campaign against Ron Paul. What speaks louder, imho, is that in spite of the blatant smears and marginalization (which has been well documented at this point), Ron Paul's numbers continue to grow.

As to your predictions...well...you were one of the loudest voices suggesting Ron Paul is a non factor in this race. Care to revise that assertion?

Lucrum · Dec 19, 2011

Quote from Tsing Tao:

It's truly magnificent to behold. It must feel good to be Ron Paul and know that people are beginning to believe in you for YOU and your OWN actions, rather than the story you tell to people and hope they believe it because they don't know the facts (like the other politicians).

Every attack given to some other candidate has to be denied and redirected, but every attack people throw at Ron Paul he confirms and stands by, arguing why it is true.

That's a shockingly different approach and something that confounds most politicians.

I hope this sticks.

+ 1

DemZad · Dec 19, 2011

Quote from Max E. Pad:

I dont know do we?

Could of sworn it was you. You said there was no way he'd run third party and I said he would (if he didn't get the nod). Is that not ringing a bell?

Free Thinker · Dec 19, 2011

Quote from DAS Trader:

Most polls indicate that around 70% of his supporters won't vote for anyone else. They will write him in even if he does not run under a third party. Speaking of which, we have a wager about this don't we?

i think i see what might happen. ron paul might win a state or two keeping his hopes just enough alive that, since this is his last shot due to his age,he will run as a 3rd party.
he is not a republican team player. they will have a hard time buying him off. you know what that means to the republicans. i think they are shaking in their boots over that prospect.

Maverick74 · Dec 19, 2011

Quote from DAS Trader:

Indeed it does; it is indicative of the media campaign against Ron Paul. What speaks louder, imho, is that in spite of the blatant smears and marginalization (which has been well documented at this point), Ron Paul's numbers continue to grow.

As to your predictions...well...you were one of the loudest voices suggesting Ron Paul is a non factor in this race. Care to revise that assertion?

I think Paul will be a non factor in the primary yes. He is not polling well in NH or SC. Or should say as well. Iowa will not be a factor in this race in my opinion. I would love to be proven wrong. But I'm not speaking with the emotional attachment you have to Paul.