Analyst Predicts Massive Grain Shortage in Two Years

Quote from pspr:

Predicts climate change within two years, huh? The national weather service with all their satellites and computers can't even predict the weather for tomorrow most of the time!
More...

Of course pspr, computer prediction will not help very much. I remember looking at a scientific set of volumes on historical compilations of wheather records for the last 2000 years. Don't compare this with what you are used to these days.

What is clear is that exceptional seasonal conditions ideed occur. I can't recall the exact dates but during the Middleages two consecutive years WITHOUT a harvest have indeed occured in Europe. Things like impossibility to plant/sow and snow in August kind of things. I don't know whether these things can vaguely be forecasted right now - I've my doubts. History can warn us to be prepared for the unforeseen.

Be good,

nononsense
 
There can be disturbance of climate due to the climax of solar activities, I don't remember if it is for two years from now must check before.
 
Potential shortages should be taken seriously and the magnitude of price changes can not be fathomed by traders who have not been through the cycles.

I was trading on the floor when World Sugar#11(meaning sugar that can be grown anywhere in the world, cane or beet) went from 5 cents to 46 and back down to 2 cents.

We are ramping up for moves of similar magnitude in commodity prices as we speak. The next 5-6 years will be certainly interesting.
 
Can this guy expect anyone to take him seriously when he claims it takes a thousand tons of water to produce a ton of grain? How could a dryland wheat farmer in Colorado produce anything with an annual rainfall of 8-12 inches per year? A good year can yield a crop of 50 bu/acre. Let's see----50bu/acreX60lbs/bu=3000lbs/acre.

at the conversion rate of 1000 tons of water/ton grain that means 1500 tons of water required per acre.

1500 tons of water @ 2000lb/ton is 3,000,000 gallons of water per acre

a quick Google search shows an acre foot of water (12" deep over one acre or one years rainfall) is 325,851 gallons.

Just as a rough guess I'd say he was off by a factor of ten, so maybe in twenty years....

Most environmentalists are mathematical illiterates and a quick look at their claims using simple math is quite sufficient to debunk whatever myth they are trying to promote.
 
Great analysis, Nevadan! It would take almost 10 feet of irrigation water according to Brown's claim in your example. Amazing! Maybe he is actually in the boat business.

Quote from nevadan:

Can this guy expect anyone to take him seriously when he claims it takes a thousand tons of water to produce a ton of grain? How could a dryland wheat farmer in Colorado produce anything with an annual rainfall of 8-12 inches per year? A good year can yield a crop of 50 bu/acre. Let's see----50bu/acreX60lbs/bu=3000lbs/acre.

at the conversion rate of 1000 tons of water/ton grain that means 1500 tons of water required per acre.

1500 tons of water @ 2000lb/ton is 3,000,000 gallons of water per acre

a quick Google search shows an acre foot of water (12" deep over one acre or one years rainfall) is 325,851 gallons.

Just as a rough guess I'd say he was off by a factor of ten, so maybe in twenty years....

Most environmentalists are mathematical illiterates and a quick look at their claims using simple math is quite sufficient to debunk whatever myth they are trying to promote.
More...
 
on closer analysis it appears I have goofed.

my calculation on the amount of gallons is 3,000,000 POUNDS of water not gallons, so the claim is in the realm of possibility. Water being 8lbs/gallon and all. Still, I doubt we'll be running out of bagels any time soon.

should have rechecked my simple math before posting....:
 
Foremost, the crack about the inability to forecast the weather the next day. I agree, but meteorology and climatology are TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.

Secondly, the forecast within two years is extreme but such an event occuring is not that far fetched. We Americans are accustiomed to an abundance of food. I can walk into a 24 hour supermarket at 3 AM, and with the swipe of a piece of plastic, feast. Due to efficient farming we have near record yields per acre (which from an econmic standpoint is counter to presently rising commodity prices)

Other countries experience empty shelves at times and experience lines of people toward near empty shelves. Northern Kenya has not had rain in 4 years. Obviously that makes farming somewhat of a challenge. Not just grain harvest but feeding of livestock.

I don't know about the fresh water supples around the world. What I do know is we take fresh water for granted (because it's cheap) and ionization of salt water (which covers the majority of the earth) is prohibitively expensive and all humans require water. It's not a postponable or deferrable matter.

A combination of demographics (a growing world population that lives longer) coupled with global warming make for the prospect of what was posed. However, in my opinion it's more around 2040 than 2006.
 
Quote from efficiency:We Americans are accustomed to an abundance of food. I can walk into a 24 hour supermarket at 3 AM, and with the swipe of a piece of plastic, feast. Due to efficient farming we have near record yields per acre (which from an economic standpoint is counter to presently rising commodity prices)
More...

What is amazing is that many think this is bad. Yields per acre has been mostly rising every year ever since, what? The Dark Ages? but many suddenly expect an abrupt halt.

Quote from efficiency:Other countries experience empty shelves at times and experience lines of people toward near empty shelves. Northern Kenya has not had rain in 4 years. Obviously that makes farming somewhat of a challenge. Not just grain harvest but feeding of livestock.
More...

I know as much as the average US Citizen about Kenya (which is to say, not much at all). I know it's in Africa, and the scene of much horror. And that's about it. But I suspect I can dig up plenty of info that shows that Kenya's problems are not some sort of farming problems, but issues with socialism, corruption, rebels, lack of property rights, stolen charity, etc. Fact is, the world produces enough food to feed the world. Fact also is, too many nasty people stop distribution.

Quote from efficiency:I don't know about the fresh water supples around the world. What I do know is we take fresh water for granted (because it's cheap) and ionization of salt water (which covers the majority of the earth) is prohibitively expensive and all humans require water. It's not a postponable or deferrable matter.
More...

Actually, once can cheaply make a device that removes the salt by evaporation. It's not fast, and you end up with flat water (which is trivial to fix), but it's easy, obvious and cheap. It's very obvious that we will not run out of fresh water until the oceans are mostly salt.

Quote from efficiency:A combination of demographics (a growing world population that lives longer) coupled with global warming make for the prospect of what was posed. However, in my opinion it's more around 2040 than 2006.
More...

Just wanted to point out that countries that go capitalistic (and achieve higher standards of living - a sure measure of how well they have moved to capitalism) tend towards lower birth rates. Wanna solve that overpopulation problem? Promote capitalism.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top