They have now dropped them way to low, so I would look for surprise maybe on the upside in the weeks ahead for economic data. Todays Chicago PMI and university of michigan estimates are way under previous readings.
Analyst expectations were way to high
- Thread starter Rickshaw Man
- Start date
They better start reading up on our ET threads about the TREND. This will perhaps make them look less goofy.
See how ease that was, I would bet University of Michigan should be better.
Chicage PMI actual 65.6 forcast 63.9 previous 69.2
yes university did come in below forcast.
yes university did come in below forcast.
Total Present Expected
Month Index Index Index
May 05 102.2 116.7 92.5
Apr 05 97.5R 113.8R 86.7R
Mar 05 103.0 117.0 93.7
Feb 05 104.4 116.8 96.1
Jan 05 105.1 112.1 100.4
Dec 04 102.7 105.7 100.7
Nov 04 92.6 96.3 90.2
Oct 04 92.9 94.0 92.2
Sep 04 96.7 95.3 97.7
Aug 04 98.7 100.7 97.3
Jul 04 105.7 106.4 105.3
Jun 04 102.8 105.9 100.8
May 04 93.1 90.5 94.8
Apr 04 93.0 90.4 94.8
Mar 04 88.5 84.4 91.3
Feb 04 88.5 83.3 91.9
Jan 04 97.7 86.1 105.3
Dec 03 94.8 76.0 107.4
Nov 03 92.5 81.0 100.1
Oct 03 81.7 67.0 91.5
Sep 03 77.0 59.7 88.5
Aug 03 81.7 62.0 94.9
Jul 03 77.0 63.0 86.3
Jun 03 83.5 64.2 96.4
May 03 83.6 67.3 94.5
Apr 03 81.0 75.2 84.8
Mar 03 61.4 61.4 61.4
Feb 03 64.8 63.5 65.7
Jan 03 78.8 75.3 81.1
Dec 02 80.7 69.6 88.1
Nov 02 84.9 78.3 89.3
Oct 02 79.6 77.2 81.1
Sep 02 93.7 88.5 97.2
Aug 02 94.5 93.1 95.5
Jul 02 97.4 99.4 96.1
Jun 02 106.3 104.9 107.2
May 02 110.3 111.2 109.7
Apr 02 108.5 106.8 109.6
Mar 02 110.7 111.5 110.2
Feb 02 95.0 96.4 94.0
Jan 02 97.8 98.1 97.6
Dec 01 94.6 97.8 92.4
Nov 01 84.9 96.2 77.3
Oct 01 85.3 107.2 70.7
Sep 01 97.0 125.4 78.1
Aug 01 114.0 144.5 93.7
Jul 01 116.3 151.3 92.9
Jun 01 118.9 156.8 93.5
May 01 116.1 159.6 87.1
Apr 01 109.9 156.0 79.1
Mar 01 116.9 167.5 83.1
Feb 01 109.2 167.1 70.7
Jan 01 115.7 170.4 79.3
Dec 00 128.6 176.1 96.9
Nov 00 132.6 179.7 101.2
Oct 00 135.8 176.8 108.4
Sep 00 142.5 182.5 115.9
Aug 00 140.8 181.3 113.9
Jul 00 143.0 186.8 113.7
Jun 00 139.2 180.1 111.9
May 00 144.7 183.6 118.7
Apr 00 137.7 179.8 109.7
Mar 00 137.1 182.5 106.8
Feb 00 140.8 180.1 114.6
Jan 00 144.7 183.1 119.1
Dec 99 141.7 181.7 115.0
Nov 99 137.0 176.8 110.4
Oct 99 130.5 173.9 101.5
Sep 99 134.2 176.3 106.2
Aug 99 136.0 176.3 109.2
Jul 99 136.2 179.2 107.6
Jun 99 139.0 175.0 114.9
May 99 137.7 177.2 111.3
Apr 99 135.5 175.5 108.8
Mar 99 134.0 176.6 105.5
Feb 99 133.1 177.7 103.4
Jan 99 128.9 172.9 99.6
Dec 98 126.7 168.6 98.7
Nov 98 126.4 166.7 99.5
Oct 98 119.3 165.2 88.7
Sep 98 126.4 170.7 96.8
Aug 98 133.1 172.6 106.8
Jul 98 137.2 172.9 113.4
Jun 98 138.2 171.3 116.2
May 98 136.3 170.9 113.3
Apr 98 137.2 169.3 115.8
Mar 98 133.8 172.7 107.9
Feb 98 137.4 171.8 114.5
Jan 98 128.3 159.3 107.7
Dec 97 136.2 163.1 118.3
Nov 97 128.1 156.8 108.9
Oct 97 123.4 147.5 107.3
Sep 97 130.2 157.6 111.9
Aug 97 127.6 156.1 108.7
Jul 97 126.3 154.5 107.6
Jun 97 129.9 157.1 111.7
May 97 127.9 152.6 111.4
Apr 97 118.5 141.6 103.2
Mar 97 118.5 144.8 101.1
Feb 97 118.9 144.3 101.9
Jan 97 118.7 141.2 103.8
Dec 96 114.2 135.7 99.9
Nov 96 109.5 133.4 93.5
Oct 96 107.3 124.6 95.7
Sep 96 111.8 128.5 100.7
Aug 96 112.0 129.5 100.3
Jul 96 107.0 125.0 95.0
Jun 96 100.1 114.7 90.3
May 96 103.5 120.2 92.4
Apr 96 104.8 118.2 95.9
Mar 96 98.4 110.0 90.7
Feb 96 98.0 110.8 89.5
Jan 96 88.4 101.1 79.9
Dec 95 99.2 109.5 92.3
Nov 95 101.6 115.3 92.5
Oct 95 96.3 105.9 89.9
Month Index Index Index
May 05 102.2 116.7 92.5
Apr 05 97.5R 113.8R 86.7R
Mar 05 103.0 117.0 93.7
Feb 05 104.4 116.8 96.1
Jan 05 105.1 112.1 100.4
Dec 04 102.7 105.7 100.7
Nov 04 92.6 96.3 90.2
Oct 04 92.9 94.0 92.2
Sep 04 96.7 95.3 97.7
Aug 04 98.7 100.7 97.3
Jul 04 105.7 106.4 105.3
Jun 04 102.8 105.9 100.8
May 04 93.1 90.5 94.8
Apr 04 93.0 90.4 94.8
Mar 04 88.5 84.4 91.3
Feb 04 88.5 83.3 91.9
Jan 04 97.7 86.1 105.3
Dec 03 94.8 76.0 107.4
Nov 03 92.5 81.0 100.1
Oct 03 81.7 67.0 91.5
Sep 03 77.0 59.7 88.5
Aug 03 81.7 62.0 94.9
Jul 03 77.0 63.0 86.3
Jun 03 83.5 64.2 96.4
May 03 83.6 67.3 94.5
Apr 03 81.0 75.2 84.8
Mar 03 61.4 61.4 61.4
Feb 03 64.8 63.5 65.7
Jan 03 78.8 75.3 81.1
Dec 02 80.7 69.6 88.1
Nov 02 84.9 78.3 89.3
Oct 02 79.6 77.2 81.1
Sep 02 93.7 88.5 97.2
Aug 02 94.5 93.1 95.5
Jul 02 97.4 99.4 96.1
Jun 02 106.3 104.9 107.2
May 02 110.3 111.2 109.7
Apr 02 108.5 106.8 109.6
Mar 02 110.7 111.5 110.2
Feb 02 95.0 96.4 94.0
Jan 02 97.8 98.1 97.6
Dec 01 94.6 97.8 92.4
Nov 01 84.9 96.2 77.3
Oct 01 85.3 107.2 70.7
Sep 01 97.0 125.4 78.1
Aug 01 114.0 144.5 93.7
Jul 01 116.3 151.3 92.9
Jun 01 118.9 156.8 93.5
May 01 116.1 159.6 87.1
Apr 01 109.9 156.0 79.1
Mar 01 116.9 167.5 83.1
Feb 01 109.2 167.1 70.7
Jan 01 115.7 170.4 79.3
Dec 00 128.6 176.1 96.9
Nov 00 132.6 179.7 101.2
Oct 00 135.8 176.8 108.4
Sep 00 142.5 182.5 115.9
Aug 00 140.8 181.3 113.9
Jul 00 143.0 186.8 113.7
Jun 00 139.2 180.1 111.9
May 00 144.7 183.6 118.7
Apr 00 137.7 179.8 109.7
Mar 00 137.1 182.5 106.8
Feb 00 140.8 180.1 114.6
Jan 00 144.7 183.1 119.1
Dec 99 141.7 181.7 115.0
Nov 99 137.0 176.8 110.4
Oct 99 130.5 173.9 101.5
Sep 99 134.2 176.3 106.2
Aug 99 136.0 176.3 109.2
Jul 99 136.2 179.2 107.6
Jun 99 139.0 175.0 114.9
May 99 137.7 177.2 111.3
Apr 99 135.5 175.5 108.8
Mar 99 134.0 176.6 105.5
Feb 99 133.1 177.7 103.4
Jan 99 128.9 172.9 99.6
Dec 98 126.7 168.6 98.7
Nov 98 126.4 166.7 99.5
Oct 98 119.3 165.2 88.7
Sep 98 126.4 170.7 96.8
Aug 98 133.1 172.6 106.8
Jul 98 137.2 172.9 113.4
Jun 98 138.2 171.3 116.2
May 98 136.3 170.9 113.3
Apr 98 137.2 169.3 115.8
Mar 98 133.8 172.7 107.9
Feb 98 137.4 171.8 114.5
Jan 98 128.3 159.3 107.7
Dec 97 136.2 163.1 118.3
Nov 97 128.1 156.8 108.9
Oct 97 123.4 147.5 107.3
Sep 97 130.2 157.6 111.9
Aug 97 127.6 156.1 108.7
Jul 97 126.3 154.5 107.6
Jun 97 129.9 157.1 111.7
May 97 127.9 152.6 111.4
Apr 97 118.5 141.6 103.2
Mar 97 118.5 144.8 101.1
Feb 97 118.9 144.3 101.9
Jan 97 118.7 141.2 103.8
Dec 96 114.2 135.7 99.9
Nov 96 109.5 133.4 93.5
Oct 96 107.3 124.6 95.7
Sep 96 111.8 128.5 100.7
Aug 96 112.0 129.5 100.3
Jul 96 107.0 125.0 95.0
Jun 96 100.1 114.7 90.3
May 96 103.5 120.2 92.4
Apr 96 104.8 118.2 95.9
Mar 96 98.4 110.0 90.7
Feb 96 98.0 110.8 89.5
Jan 96 88.4 101.1 79.9
Dec 95 99.2 109.5 92.3
Nov 95 101.6 115.3 92.5
Oct 95 96.3 105.9 89.9