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Analysis: Why the Fed Is Likely to Cut Again
- Thread starter ajacobson
- Start date
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Interesting read. I liked Jim Cramers analysis also. He shows charts of SPX[same for SPY] long term trend + medium term trend is still up/trend=friend...……………………………………………………………………...QQQ long term trend was up before+ during + after rate cut. Not a prediction
.Its not clear if that changed the DAL downtrend?? DAL is around a 2 or 3 year low
There has never been this much of a mass hysteria since the fed introduced QE 1. They have cut rates 3 times last year, and another one this year with EMERGENCY meetings. So, it comes to no surprise if they cut rates again.
Ohhhhh here is an article from 2018. And within the article is a fed fund prediction of rates being above 3% in 2020 and 2021. Well it looks like that's never ever going to happen. In fact 2020 and 2021 fed funds rate will below 1%. And to think of all that economic growth they predicted. Why so upbeat on economic growth only to cut rates by 50 basis points???????
Fu×king market and then fed is ludacris
From the article:
The FOMC also lowered its outlook for the long-run funds rate, from 3 percent in the September forecast to 2.8 percent this month. The 2019 estimate declined to 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent and both 2020 and 2021 dropped to 3.1 percent from 3.4 percent.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/fed-hikes-rates-by-a-quarter-point-.html
Fu×king market and then fed is ludacris
From the article:
The FOMC also lowered its outlook for the long-run funds rate, from 3 percent in the September forecast to 2.8 percent this month. The 2019 estimate declined to 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent and both 2020 and 2021 dropped to 3.1 percent from 3.4 percent.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/fed-hikes-rates-by-a-quarter-point-.html
People are still fearful, so why not replay this card again and take it lower when there's a huge uptick in infections. Big increase in cases is in play within this month.corona may just be an excuse.
dollar index was on a crazy run and the white house didn't really want that.
I have no crystal ball, no clue and no complains.In one word: pathetic. 10% down from ATH and we need an emergency 50bps cut. Geez. What will they do if we have real 30% crash?
Nevertheless, I loving this trading environment. Lots of volatility and ranges.
Lucked into this bull market, will ride it till the bitter end.
I have no crystal ball, no clue and no complains.
Lucked into this bull market, will ride it till the bitter end.
I'm not complaining. Made some of my best profits in Feb and the gravy train continues in March. All on the LONG side.
Anyhow, I'm just criticizing from a POLICY perspective NOT from a trading perspective. It's bad policy that will haunt all of us for years to come...
I'm not complaining. Made some of my best profits in Feb and the gravy train continues in March. All on the LONG side.
Anyhow, I'm just criticizing from a POLICY perspective NOT from a trading perspective. It's bad policy that will haunt all of us for years to come...
Its extremely bad policy but no one will comprehend this until the end....this is just a blip now imagine when the next crisis comes, the fed and the world is already on edge, the fed thinks a 50 basis point was needed and I'm sure is the market visits new lows they will cut straight to 1%. They claim they aren't there to help stocks but it's a lie, every rate cut and every dollar they print is for wallstreet. They only cut 50 basis points because the markets fell 10% in a week and if no one believes that then they are just a fuxking fool.