Analysis of my trading so far

A

anesthesiaman

I am a 34 y/o anesthesiologist (no school loans) getting ready for the move out of medicine in 3 years due to ObamaCare. I know this thread title is probably just asking for people to flame me b/c I know there are traders out there who are better and more advanced BUT I would appreciate suggestions:

Having just started trading futures for the first time on May 25, I'm looking for a way to have someone or a company analyze my trading results. Goal is to establish a record so that I can work for a hedge fund, private equity, CTA/MF, etc, or any company as a trader. I'm NOT interested in starting my own hedge fund.

Regarding my trading, I need to know:

Sharpe ratio
Max drawdown
Average Margin-to-equity ratio
Alpha
Average duration of trades
Anything else that is commonly tracked - not sure?

In the link below you will see 2 screens: on the left side are my futures trading. On the other side are my options/equities trading - which I mostly use to hedge my futures trading which is why there is a small loss. However, I have a high win rate and so I'm starting to hedge less.

I started with 50k for the first month or so and then realized what I could do. So I added another 50k later - thus total capital is 100k.

My own cursory analysis is: 2-3% return / month (I did not trade in September due to studying for my anesthesia oral board exams). Max drawdown of about 6-7%. Average margin-to-equity ratio of about 20%. I need REAL numbers, confirmed by 3rd party, not just my own superficial analysis.

Anyone know of a company that analyzes and keeps track of how your trading/fund/portfolio is doing so as to compare my trading with that of other hedge funds/CTAs/MFs/PEs?

http://cl.ly/e612f5ff43860f6cbf1e

Thanks in advance,
Anesthesiaman
 
Why are you getting out of medicine because of Obamacare?

My opinion is that you are trading too many instrument. It's almost impossible to manage that many. Most or all markets pretty much behave similarly. So you just need to develop a good strategy and apply it to each market. If you need size, I would just focus on the most liquid instruments.
 
Quote from anesthesiaman:

I am a 34 y/o anesthesiologist (no school loans) getting ready for the move out of medicine in 3 years due to ObamaCare.
More...

What a waste of great knowledge.
Beside, I'd bet you'll be more successful as anesthesiologist than as trader. One guarantees a happy life with very high living standards the other is a lottery ticket, a chance out of a thousand to make it big. And I'm a bit surprised that you choose the latter having spent several years studying for the former.
The two careers are polar opposites, will you have the entrepreuneurial mind and the risk appetite it takes to be successful at trading?

Anyway, considering the metrics, as far as you are concerned the only two that you need are:
-Profit factor (win proba * avg win size) / (loss proba * avg loss size)
-Trade frequency

The rest is noise.
If your profit factor is not stationary over an extended period of time, I hope it is at least mean reverting and has a gaussian distributions. If you see long/heavy tails go back to the drawing board.

As far as investors are concerned, it depends. It depends especially on who you're talking to (retail, institutional).
Usually the point you are trying to make is that you have very high return for very low risk. Any metric that will show this works, as long as you can pitch it correctly.

Ninna
 
Yes unfortunately I'm leaving medicine because of ObamaCare. 3 years is what our lawyers are telling us before things start to go into effect.

I'm not the only one - many other of my colleagues and surgeons are planning their exit as well as it is no longer worth it for us docs. I don't feel like I'm betraying the public and taking my govt sponsored education with me. It feels more like the other way around.

I'm just glad I learned how to trade in 2003-2004.
 
Quote from nLepwa:

What a waste of great knowledge.
Beside, I'd bet you'll be more successful as anesthesiologist than as trader. One guarantees a happy life with very high living standards the other is a lottery ticket, a chance out of a thousand to make it big. And I'm a bit surprised that you choose the latter having spent several years studying for the former.
The two careers are polar opposites, will you have the entrepreuneurial mind and the risk appetite it takes to be successful at trading?

Anyway, considering the metrics, as far as you are concerned the only two that you need are:
-Profit factor (win proba * avg win size) / (loss proba * avg loss size)
-Trade frequency

The rest is noise.
If your profit factor is not stationary over an extended period of time, I hope it is at least mean reverting and has a gaussian distributions. If you see long/heavy tails go back to the drawing board.

As far as investors are concerned, it depends. It depends especially on who you're talking to (retail, institutional).
Usually the point you are trying to make is that you have very high return for very low risk. Any metric that will show this works, as long as you can pitch it correctly.

Ninna
More...

Great thanks a bunch. No, there aren't fat tails. I started trading in 1999, learned how to do it consistently in 2003-2004, then stopped trading as I entered internship and residency. Now that I've been out for 2 years, I decided to pick it up again - and at a perfect time considering ObamaCare's effect on us.
 
anesthesiaman,

Just curious.. what about the changes are prompting you to leave?
It sounds like a cushy job (at least on the surface). Once you learn the trade, I would expect that there aren't a lot of new things to learn that are stressful, like technology jobs. Is that true? On the other hand, I could see being on call and dealing with risk/demanding surgeons as being stressful.

Anyways, GL, either way. You sound like someone who's asking smart questions early on, IMO.
 
I think he is a big troll, total BS post. So the guy is gonna leave a very well paying job which will continue to pay very well because of something that has not even happened and no one knows what the actual impact is. I highly suspect he is not an anesthesiologist at all.

So he can go trading. Yet the guy has never traded. I guess he thinks any idiot with some money could just become a successful trader.

So, Dr., do you think any idiot of the street could just walk into an OR table and properly administer Anesthesia?

Just like the idiots thinking about quitting Trading because of the big HFT boogeyman.

Take a picture of your degree, blank out your name on the degree in front of a screen with elite trader with a post as proof.



BTW: Anesthesiology is not a cushy job by any means and demand for anesthesiologists is outstripping supply for the last few years. There is no way you will be able to trade successfully if you are working full time shifts.
 
Quote from dtrader98:

anesthesiaman,

Just curious.. what about the changes are prompting you to leave?
It sounds like a cushy job (at least on the surface). Once you learn the trade, I would expect that there aren't a lot of new things to learn that are stressful, like technology jobs. Is that true? On the other hand, I could see being on call and dealing with risk/demanding surgeons as being stressful.

Anyways, GL, either way. You sound like someone who's asking smart questions early on, IMO.
More...

Hi dtrader98,

Thank you for the well wishes. It is a cushy job and moreover it is fun - especially when I get to do big heart cases (1-2x / wk). However, I need to be nimble just in case (like my trading), and in all honesty the reason why I will probably leave is:

1) Decreasing compensation (not sure by how much though - but it could be very significant - at least for anesthesia)
2) Increasing bullsh*t. For ex., every heart case we do, Medicare does not pay us enough and so we lose money on every heart case (all anesthesia groups lose, not just our 500+ doc group). Fortunately (for now) our other private insurance patients (non-Medicare/Medicaid) cases makes up for the losses, but when everyone is on a "Medicare for all" system - things will go downhill quick. Believe me.

I need to build up something now (trading) - in case I have to leave medicine. The other thing that I do is foreclosed real estate (am closing on one for 90k Dec 14th that I bought last year for 74k+2k rehab and rented out for 1 yr. I do this over and over - to avoid short-term cap gains taxes and RE also helps with the insane taxes I pay on my active income. This is my 7th unit.).

IF medicine treats me fairly (i.e. not a big decrease in compensation), then I will stay in medicine. I enjoy helping people.

But anyway, the way I see it, the more money I have, the more I can give away - and the greater number of people I can help. I think this is more efficient that helping people 1 by 1 as with anesthesia.
 
Quote from KINGOFSHORTS:

I think he is a big troll, total BS post. So the guy is gonna leave a very well paying job which will continue to pay very well because of something that has not even happened and no one knows what the actual impact is. I highly suspect he is not an anesthesiologist at all.

So he can go trading. Yet the guy has never traded. I guess he thinks any idiot with some money could just become a successful trader.

So, Dr., do you think any idiot of the street could just walk into an OR table and properly administer Anesthesia?

Just like the idiots thinking about quitting Trading because of the big HFT boogeyman.

Take a picture of your degree, blank out your name on the degree in front of a screen with elite trader with a post as proof.

BTW: Anesthesiology is not a cushy job by any means and demand for anesthesiologists is outstripping supply for the last few years. There is no way you will be able to trade successfully if you are working full time shifts.
More...

Here you go:

http://cl.ly/0f611085f9567416759c

By the way:

1) I typically trade end of day - so yes I can trade futures while working full time. I never said I was a daytrader.

2) I am not afraid of HFT/algos/etc. I am doing fine as a simple, retail futures trader. I am "unsophisticated" and enjoy being so compared to these "pros" with dual screens, programs, and stuff. In fact 80% of my trades are from my iphone!

3) Instead of being so negative, try being positive and keeping things simple. This is how I am successful. But believe me, I'm not as successful as these other millionaire, billionaire hedge fund managers. I'm just a regular guy who knows how to trade and how to do real estate.

One option would be to use a reliable prop trading firm that does futures. Anyone know of any reliable firms? I know futures are already leveraged, but with more capital to control, I could increase my trading results (and any losses too, yes, I realize).
 
Theres a couple of former Medical Doctors who are futures traders that I've read about.

Dr. David Druz - Tactical Investment Management

Dr. Bill Dunn and his son of Dunn Capital are trained doctors....
 
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