Analysis of Christopher Hitchen's argument against God

Random chance causation is not a fact.

Belief than man exists as a product of random chance is a belief. Common descent theory based on random chance is a speculative guess.

The fact is that no one knows.

The theory of evolution is just as possible if every "mutation" was the product of design, and not random chance. If it was assumed that there was not random chance, but guided/programmed/designed change the theory would not be different really.

Change is a fact. That something caused that change is not in dispute.

What actually causes the change is unknown. So we come up with words like "mutation." Then because we can't figure out exactly why something mutated, we must assume it was random chance?

I think scientists have been performing experiments on rats for a long time, trying to mutate them by various means.

Scientists have claimed to create a new species:

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Wellness/scientists-create-synthetic-cells/story?id=10708502

By design.

Yet it must be the case that in nature, all the mutations are random and chance happenings?



Quote from stu:

Fine tuning is not a scientific theory. Certain components of it may be compatible with known scientific facts but that does not make fine tuning / the anthropic principle - a scientific theory.

On the other hand Evolution is a fact. A proven fact, scientific fact and scientific theory.

Apparently it's usually when religious belief is involved, do proven facts magically become unproved, unprovable theories.
 
News:

Are mutations truly random?
Posted by Jef Akst
[Entry posted at 13th January 2010 12:01 AM GMT]
View comments(10) | Comment on this news story

Do genetic mutations really occur at random spots along the genome, as researchers have long supposed? Maybe not, according to a study published online today (January 13) in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, which proposes a mechanism for how new mutations might preferentially form around existing ones.

Image: Wikimedia commons, Jerome Walker, Dennis Myts
"The idea is quite interesting," said evolutionary geneticist Maud Tenaillon of the University of California, Irvine, who was not involved in the research. "I think it could be a good explanation for [mutational] hotspots." But, she cautioned, the support for this hypothesis so far falls solely on a somewhat incomplete theoretical model.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) exist in clusters of varying size and density across the genome. Despite this non-random distribution, scientists believed for many years that these so-called mutational hotspots were the product of natural selection and other post-mutational processes, and that the mutations occurred at random. However, "in last two decades, the large amount of both genomic and polymorphic data has changed the way of thinking in the field," Dacheng Tian of Nanjing University in China, who did not participate in the work, wrote in an email to The Scientist. "[This] idea provides a self-increasing hypothesis, which may be useful to rethink the formation of such non-randomness."

In the Royal Society study, evolutionary geneticist William Amos of Cambridge University suggested one of the first mechanisms by which mutations may occur non-randomly. In this theoretical paper, Amos proposed that SNPs may form more commonly around pre-existing mutations as a result of a DNA repair system. When the repair system encounters a mismatch in the genome, which may occur at heterozygous regions where SNPs already exist, the repair machinery rips up the mistake and relays the DNA to correct it. Because mutations can occur when DNA replicates, the extra rounds of DNA replication associated with the DNA repair system could potentially cause mutations to cluster.

Using SNP data from the HapMap website for human chromosome 1, Amos calculated the average size and density of existing mutational clusters. He then ran simulations under the assumption of either this new, non-random mechanism of mutation formation or that of randomly occurring mutations. He found that the non-random model more closely predicted the frequency and density of the mutational clusters on the chromosome.

"My theory is going to shake things up majorly," Amos said. "The concept of non-independent mutations simply wasn't thought of before -- this is completely new and it really changes how we think of DNA evolving."

One interesting implication of this mechanism of SNP formation is that "it attracts mutations to where polymorphisms already exists, where it is likely to be tolerated [or even] beneficial," and vice versa, Amos said. "If you bias the mutations that do occur to where other mutations [already exist], you're more likely to do good than" if mutations occurred randomly. This mechanism, Amos added, may thus provide a way for the genome to reduce the overall number of deleterious mutations that occur.

While the idea is interesting and "it may be true," Tenaillon said, "I'm not convinced." There are several factors known to contribute to the non-random distribution of SNPs that Amos did not include in his simplified model, such as natural selection and demography. The HapMap data Amos used, for example, come from a European population, which is widely believed to have undergone a major bottleneck about 30,000 years ago, Tenaillon said. Such a bottleneck can significantly alter the SNP distribution, causing enormous increases in the numbers of SNPs in certain areas of the genome, she explained. Furthermore, this data set included both coding and noncoding regions, which are known to vary in the density of mutations since natural selection acts more potently on coding regions.

"It's not easy to discriminate between all these mechanisms," Tenaillon said. "It would have been nice if they could have taken into account all the things we know can create mutational hotspots and show that [the] effect [of self-perpetuating SNP formation] was [still] significant." More rigorously testing this hypothesis could include creating a more comprehensive theoretical model, as well as using genomic data from noncoding regions only and from a more "worldwide" population, she said.

Still, the idea warrants further exploration, Tenaillon added. "It's nice to have a paper where you have an idea it gives you material to discuss something," she said. "It's an interesting [concept] to test."

Read more: Are mutations truly random? - The Scientist - Magazine of the Life Sciences http://www.the-scientist.com/blog/display/56267/#ixzz1F5W4xxTO
 
Quote from stu:

Unexplained fine tunings are evidence of unexplained fine tunings.
A fine tuner, for what are questionably fine tunings anyway, is a leap of blind faith.

and archeology must have nothing more than evidence of unexplained bones.
 
Change by environment has a cause, the environment, and therefore doesn’t require or necessitate change by any other design.
 
Quote from stu:

Change by environment has a cause, the environment, and therefore doesn’t require or necessitate change by any other design.

I think the word you're looking for is adaptation, as well as the line of reasoning.
 
Quote from omegapoint:

I think the word you're looking for is adaptation, as well as the line of reasoning.

I'm responding to others using the word change. Try to keep up.
 
Quote from stu:

I'm responding to others using the word change. Try to keep up.


Change? You may as well use the word miracle for all the causal
explanation it provides.
 
Okay. Change by environment.

Leads us back to the same place...random chance change by the cause of the environment, not knowing what caused the environment to happen the way it did.

Not knowing is not knowing cause?

Nope, we don't know cause.

So since we don't know cause, we only at best know process following and preceding from cause, we observe effect only, not cause...there is no valid reason to assume chance over design...or vice versa.

The scientific models would produce the same results either way...

Quote from stu:

Change by environment has a cause, the environment, and therefore doesn’t require or necessitate change by any other design.
 
Quote from OPTIONAL777:

Fine tunings are part of a theory, a guess, a speculation, not a fact of science.

You accuse me of throwing things against the wall hoping they stick?

You argue against evolution but argue for fine tunings?

Both are unproved, unprovable theories...but you select a theory that supports your theism and reject another theory...and think that is logical consistency of thinking?

A can't be established as scientific fact.
B can't be established as scientific fact.
I agree with B, therefore I'm going to say B is scientific fact because some scientists also agree with B.

Your logic...

by the way I do not argue against evolution.

I argue there is evidence of a Creator
and I also argue there is evidence of evolution and depending on the definition... evolution is a fact in some forms.

the theory of evolution and the possibility of a Creator are not in conflict.

(and no, I have never been shown a reason to believe the bible says the earth is only 6000 years old.)
 
Quote from omegapoint:

Change? You may as well use the word miracle for all the causal
explanation it provides.
Change by environment has a cause.
The cause is, by that statement obviously, the environment.
Nothing miraculous about change .
 
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