Analysis followed by action. Live Calls. (5min delayed)

M

mrkmcknz

Hi all and welcome to my first post on EliteTrader.

For some 3years I've been analysing and fine tuning my trading strategy. I based it on a theory I devised while at college:

"The theory of participation states that market movement is a result of individual participants actions. As all participants actions are unknown market movement can be defined as a total random event."

This may seem like common sense but I went to work on devising formulas based on well known mathematicians prior work and also on established trading indicators that are often over looked.

The strategy trades only the S&P E-mini futures contract and attempts to predict trade opportunities based on when a perception change from bullish to bearish (vice versa) occurs. However, this perception change must also be in line with the long term outlook.

I will be making live calls 5minute delayed of which isn't really to bad considering in demo I rarely came across a trade lasting less than 1hour.

I will be starting with an account balance of $5000. Wish me luck.
 
I sure wish you the best! If you are using real money I would suggest you first consider getting some input from some of the more experienced traders on ET. Don't worry, you will not lose your "secret". There are no secret formulas, you have nothing that has not been tried before. It may save you some money.

Simple things, like......what makes you think you can determine "perception change" in a manner that 10,000 others are not? :)


FWIW

Don
 
Quote from bmwhendrix:

I sure wish you the best! If you are using real money I would suggest you first consider getting some input from some of the more experienced traders on ET. Don't worry, you will not lose your "secret". There are no secret formulas, you have nothing that has not been tried before. It may save you some money.

Simple things, like......what makes you think you can determine "perception change" in a manner that 10,000 others are not? :)


FWIW

Don
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Hi Don,

Thanks for the kind words. I had experience trading inside a real working prop firm until it dismantled so have been around guys whom are succeeding and I'm fortunate enough to have had that go to guy.

I know like all others. Results speak for themselves.

The system is split into two distinct computer models.

The long term perception ranking. This is mainly used to limit the losing opportunities that may occur in fighting the trend. Using moving averages devised from Fibonacci numbers and the magic number pi.

The short term perception ranking. This is the real clever part of the system that I don't wish to go into.

I trade with an 8tick stop loss 2points and a 24tick take profit 6points.

DEMO results are DEMO results and in my eyes aren't really worth going into.

Psychology is going to be the biggest hurdle here.
 
mrkm,

welcome to ET... looking forward to your calls. The proof is in the pudding...just make your calls and everyone will fall in line...(you are very brave).

From what little you have posted thus far, you seem reasonable with your approach and conclusions. Surely you have not wasted three years and you are very commendable to want to share on a public forum filled with anonymous characters.

Holding a trade for such short intervals must prove to be challenging in todays market with computers trading against computers with their programs designed to trip you up/ fake you out...etc.

There are two things that will happen...You will conclude that you know what you know and that sharing openly in public is just not worth it....or you will have an attitude to try and gather some more information in exchange for sharing which might might help you to grow to the next level...we shall see...

I think you are in the best forum on the internet to get objective information and may your experience here in ET be fruitful.

ES
 
Quote from mrkmcknz:

live calls 5minute delayed
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Lemme guess, each trade is a winner??? If I am allowed to post with 5 mins delay, I wouldn't need stop loss... Unless of course you are swingtrading, in that case 5 mins is meaningless, so either way there is no point in delaying the calls....
 
OP, you can post the daily trades from your platform showing times of entries, exits, etc. That should provide enough info for followers to evaluate your trades and provide input. A chart of your trades would also be very useful if you want to get meaningful feedback.
 
Quote from bmwhendrix:

OP, you can post the daily trades from your platform showing times of entries, exits, etc. That should provide enough info for followers to evaluate your trades and provide input. A chart of your trades would also be very useful if you want to get meaningful feedback.
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I agree entirely. I will be using the E-signal platform through Mirus Futures so it won't be too difficult to post charts.

I'm going to stick to my strategy with some discipline. First rule I got taught: If you start to bend your myth around the facts you will fail. Finding the facts to support your myth and you're on to a winner.
 
Quote from mrkmcknz:


live calls 5minute delayed
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Is that anything like genuine imitation leather? Would the 5 minute delay be 5 minutes for entry and 5 minutes for exit, for a total delay of 10 minutes?
 
Quote from trendo:

Is that anything like genuine imitation leather? Would the 5 minute delay be 5 minutes for entry and 5 minutes for exit, for a total delay of 10 minutes?
More...

Just 5minutes for the entry. The exit will always be 8ticks stops and 24ticks take profit. Or 2points and 6points respectively on the ES. 5minute delayed is minimal when I'm in positions for so long often a few hours. I just need that time to ensure my trades are all dandy :)
 
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