Analogy of trading

[Trvlwanderer]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

When you have a set of 11, and the first 10 is heads, the probability for the 11th isn't 50%. However if you increase the set from 11 to say 11 million. And the first 10.999.999 are heads, then the probability of getting tails is much greater than when the set is just 11.
The reason for this is that probability is quantified, just like energy. When the sets becomes infinity large, the number of sets that result in tails will increase by a certain quanta.

Well, if your gonna make "infinity" trades and bank on the next coin flip, get after it sparky.

10 of 10 heads, the probability of heads the 11th remains 50%.

Period.

Stay in school.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from Trvlwanderer:

Well, if your gonna make "infinity" trades and bank on the next coin flip, get after it sparky.

10 of 10 heads, the probability of heads the 11th remains 50%.

Period.

Stay in school.

However in the real world probability is also dependent on the set itself. The trend is not your friend. If you get 10 heads in a row, probability to get head is more than 50%

 

[TheGoonior]

GRRRR (troll cheer)....other trolls now have leader troll! Ruthless, irrefutable logic and correct maths cower to flatulently voiced concepts of quanta and energy.
Mortal trolls would have to have contented themselves with bit parts in Peter Jackson films or be faced with onerous task of locating Probability 101 textbook in Dewey Decimal system.

Here now is a troll worthy of our devotion!

 

[bespoke]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

However in the real world probability is also dependent on the set itself. The trend is not your friend. If you get 10 heads in a row, probability to get head is more than 50%

the guy kind of makes sense in a real world situation. if i got head 10 nights in a row, the probability of me getting head on 11th night is probably higher than 50%

 

[Pension_Admin]

Quote from bespoke:

the guy kind of makes sense in a real world situation. if i got head 10 nights in a row, the probability of me getting head on 11th night is probably higher than 50%

What about the probably of getting head during the day? LOL

 

[Trvlwanderer]

ok, ok.

the probability of a two-outcome scenario is not really 50%.

Sometimes......when you roll 2 six-sided dice.....you get a total of "1" and sometimes "13".

Not very often, but in the quanta of horseshit and "energy" that is complete dimensia, it does exist.

Now go forth and do great things.

 

[nicuss]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

When you have a set of 11, and the first 10 is heads, the probability for the 11th isn't 50%. However if you increase the set from 11 to say 11 million. And the first 10.999.999 are heads, then the probability of getting tails is much greater than when the set is just 11.

If the first 10.999.999 coin flips are heads then the probability for the 11 milionth one to also be heads is nearly 100%. There is obviously something wrong with the coin that makes it (almost) always land on the same side. Or perhaps there's a head on each side of the coin. Or the coin flipper is a good con artist.

Moral of the story is that at some point the probability that someone is trying to game us can become comparable or larger than the probability to get the outcome we're witnessing, and that needs to be taken into account. Applies to live trading as well.