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Yes,when thy have sold it off 80% [ from 3yr Highs.......]or 95% down ;trash can fly up fast, that is why
An old topic: how to describe a "trend" by algos ?
- Thread starter Warren
- Start date
Yes,when thy have sold it off 80% [ from 3yr Highs.......]or 95% down ;trash can fly up fast, that is why
It is not really about the actual stock prices in this case, you see stocks are smoke and mirrors for the real economy of the market, stocks are the after effect of the battles played out in Credit Markets... It is about the bonds and swaps involved, overall bankruptcy view very likely isn't changing medium to long term for PG&E, but this is bafoonerie to the fullest
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...eadly-2017-california-wildfires-idUSKCN1J501C
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/11/pge...fire-faults-utility-for-costly-wildfires.html
Last year guilty of starting 2017 fires, today not guilty... A small circle of conspirators got fat payouts for this one!
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...eadly-2017-california-wildfires-idUSKCN1J501C
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/11/pge...fire-faults-utility-for-costly-wildfires.html
Last year guilty of starting 2017 fires, today not guilty... A small circle of conspirators got fat payouts for this one!
True said:
Well, I believe the 200 days SMA is very good to denote a long term trend. While what I aim at is something like 5 mins to 4 hours. The thing is, you can find a indicator to catch what you are looking for, meanwhile there are more cases(noise actually) included, cases you want to filter out.
Well, as a lazy guy who do not want to track all the news or even insider info, I think this is case I want to avoid. That is the reason why I do not want to trade a specific stock, only index futures or forex futures.
"Newer" MAs?!? "Traditional"?!? What have you been smoking?
The algebra here hasn't changed since Waterloo, when the British artillery showed the French that they'd finally done their (French-taught) math lessons. If you think otherwise, you've been sold the trading version of a pig with lipstick. Still just a pig.
"Low-lag...." That just cracks me up. You don't realize that 100 years ago, this stuff was calculated by clerks working overnight to get it on the boss's desk by morning, paid like crap, but they were grateful for a warm place to work.
<<<EDIT>>>
My snarky response was to the comments regarding moving averages, completely forgetting that this is an algo thread, and panzerman's comments are well placed and right on target.
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Better stuff than you apparently. The algebra hasn't changed, but the concepts of digital filters, group delay, nyquist sampling rates, etc. etc. didn't exist 100 years ago. Certainly traders were not using anything more advanced than SMAs. Clerks were not calculating Inverse Chebysev polynomials to apply as coefficients in lowpass filters! Take a chill pill along with whatever you are smoking.
<<<SnarkSnarkSnark>>>
You can quote the names, but can you use it to make MONEY? Can you show robust, sustainable, profitable market insight?
Yeahhhhh. It's like that.
This is not a fashion show, where whether you have the latest names pop up on your Indicators drop-down window affects your bottom line in the least. I guarantee you -- look at trading platforms: the more indicator choices on the GUI, the less likely its traders are profitable.
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My initial response here was written before I realized that the actual thread in on algorithmic trading -- the very place where ML-oriented filters/mechanisms would be of great use. And of course, panzerman is right on target: If "trend" is a perhaps-accidental coincidence of trading agendas into a cohesive market regime/direction, then our job is to discern those agendas (or simply, the cohesion) as soon as possible. SMAs and EMAs will certainly give you hints -- and certainly, the longer the period of the 'trend' in question. But to shorten that up at all -- to *telescope* down further -- takes further degrees of filter action. Perhaps more false signals? Sure -- just as shortening the periodicity of SMAs/EMAs will do. But the more, *different* trading regimes your analysis can identify, the more you can test for their initiation, continuation, and attenuation. (And *that* is where the money comes in. [!!])
Thanks for the post, panzerman.
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Trend: faster the method to define trend often produces more false movement than actual trend changes. I prefer to use John Hills' Thrust bar and can go little further using a 20 moving average, when an entire bar's range is beyond the moving average, that is trend. I call those bars "Freebars" are they not touching the M.A., so it produces much thrust in one direction. What matters is consistency.
Low lag=High noise
No free money
No free money