Historical Data's and Trade Value identifies momentum
An old topic: how to describe a "trend" by algos ?
- Thread starter Warren
- Start date
Historical Data's and Trade Value identifies momentum
No one suggests that flipping a coin is a righteous way to make an important decision, either -- however, it remains a benchmark for 50|50 decisions: your *decided* method should at least be 50% right, right? The "Random Entry" standard is only a benchmark: if you can't beat that, then find something else to do with your time+money.
[Partial QUOTE="Warren, post: 4793872, member: 507682"]Yes, I know there are many discussion stating that "trend" is subjective, and even unable to define...........
Maybe, it is because SMAs are too lagged behind the price. And maybe I could try EMAs instead.
So, just want to open up an broader topic. Any clue to capture what we see in the chart when the market is moving one directional without too much compromise to include too many cases undesirable ?[/QUOTE]
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True, SMAs lag more.But as far as a200 day moving averagae-- that's what you want=less commissions+ more profit, more dividends.....................................................................................................................................................................
Actually i prefer a 200 period ma; a S&P 500 derivative i'm looking @, now is above 200 week ma]sma + ema], but still below 2000day ma[ema+sma] IBD uses a 200 day moving average. NICe uptrend anyway
Maybe, it is because SMAs are too lagged behind the price. And maybe I could try EMAs instead.
So, just want to open up an broader topic. Any clue to capture what we see in the chart when the market is moving one directional without too much compromise to include too many cases undesirable ?[/QUOTE]
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True, SMAs lag more.But as far as a200 day moving averagae-- that's what you want=less commissions+ more profit, more dividends.....................................................................................................................................................................
Actually i prefer a 200 period ma; a S&P 500 derivative i'm looking @, now is above 200 week ma]sma + ema], but still below 2000day ma[ema+sma] IBD uses a 200 day moving average. NICe uptrend anyway
Whoever reads this thread and intends to use MAs, please use some of the newer low-lag MAs, and not the traditional ones. There are free ones by John Ehlers, or paid ones by Jurik. Lag, or group delay, will kill your performance with the traditional MAs. Also, please take the time to learn how to engineer an MA as a lowpass filter. MAs are a balance between attenuation of the stopband frequencies and group delay. More attenuation, which is good, leads to more group delay, which is bad. That balance is what you get to design into your MA.
Again John Ehlers is the man for this. If your math aptitude is poor and you can't code, then you have a very steep learning curve, but one worth taking.
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Your ma wisdom is better than any math requirement.Tech Analysis Of Stocks & Co..........................................................,magazine Jan 2019 was mailed /arrived in mid DEC.
Nice article on a short term trade 50 period weighted ma[faster]; but IBD uses a slow/slower 200 day ma .Sometimes i weight a 200 week moving average more than 200 day moving average, but find a good trend, solves a lot of math problems.Thanks for your comment . Its not rocket science+ i have a John Ehlers system in a home book= his is much better than average,as you imply.
My math is good but where can I learn more about these MAs?
Historical Data's and Trade value... The rest is almost mumbo jumbo, the market is fiction and a good way to spot trend is in actual numbers, not graphs... When Trade value sharply increases, imagination comes into play and you have to decide if a " rumour " is coming, and join the wave medium term, or from option volumes and OI you can see if it's just a play being made, which you can decide to join or pass, either buying calls or puts, either way trend is going... Volume dictates prices, nothing else matters, fundamentals barely matter ( Netflix,Tesla, US Shale, and so many more ). Please watch video at time started, you already knew this, but very important video from a CNBC Host himself saying this
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I enjoy his headlines;'' Bear Turns into Bull[market]'' .Actually fundamentals matter a lot. Even a high correlation can bust up/break down @ any time; like one oil trader said ''' oil does not have earnings.'' Oil also pays no dividends. Certainly NO dis-respect intended on Mr J Cramer .LOL
I get his emailLook at today's manipulation for example... A 15 months investigation into something that could of taken few weeks to finish, timing of it is priceless
was at 3:14 eastern
Look at volume blast-off, starts off at 3:12... Why would a firm or firms buy this much just based on a tweet from a news reporter ? Trade value for today was 913 million, Insider info 1000 %
I think company is still done, but if somehow the 2018 fire also is deemed to have been caused by a " private electrical system " in 2020, this would be a classic
I have zero interest in PCG, just pointing out today's manipulation
was at 3:14 eastern
Look at volume blast-off, starts off at 3:12... Why would a firm or firms buy this much just based on a tweet from a news reporter ? Trade value for today was 913 million, Insider info 1000 %
I think company is still done, but if somehow the 2018 fire also is deemed to have been caused by a " private electrical system " in 2020, this would be a classic
I have zero interest in PCG, just pointing out today's manipulation