An interview where youll be asked on your outlook on bonds, stocks, commodities, etc?

C

crgarcia

What would you say?

Being a bank, they'll likely be most focused on bonds, I think T-bonds will stay between 3.5 to 4% for some time.

Interest rates: The Fed might still ease rates a LITTLE more, because this is an election year. It may rise rates in late 2009.

Stocks may go up a little more to a bit high valuation levels, then retrace some of their gains, only to rally again by year end to finish the year about 6% up for the year.

Commodities are if not at the top, they are almost at the top. They may remain bound in a wide range for some time.

Currencies: The dollar might still go down a little more, altought with great volatility, and without a clearly defined trend.


What you think, what would you add/remove, corrections?
 
If you've got guts:

"Here is a printout showing the net position of my mechanical trading systems on each of the instruments that I follow (hand over a three page document). If the systems are net long, my outlook is bullish. If the systems are net short, my outlook is bearish. And if an instrument does not appear in this report, it means that I don't trade it and have no particular outlook on its future course. For example, propane does not appear. I don't trade it, I don't follow it, and I have no particular outlook on its prospects."
 
Quote from crgarcia:

What would you say?

Being a bank, they'll likely be most focused on bonds, I think T-bonds will stay between 3.5 to 4% for some time.

WRONG: The 30-year will be yielding 5.5% minimum by year end. It is simply overliquefied AAAA junk.


Interest rates: The Fed might still ease rates a LITTLE more, because this is an election year. It may rise rates in late 2009.

WRONG: Stupid reasoning in general, and given the turmoil of the credit markets the Fed is not going to act in the interests of the presidential cycle.


Stocks may go up a little more to a bit high valuation levels, then retrace some of their gains, only to rally again by year end to finish the year about 6% up for the year.

WRONG: Stocks will end the year with a double digit decline.


Commodities are if not at the top, they are almost at the top. They may remain bound in a wide range for some time.
WRONG: Why will they come down? Simply because they have gone up? Commodities in general will be volatile, but as an asset class they will be largely higher even from these levels.


Currencies: The dollar might still go down a little more, altought with great volatility, and without a clearly defined trend.
WRONG: trend will resume clearly downward by or in September.

What you think, what would you add/remove, corrections?
More...

What kind of interview is this?
 
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