Amzn

Some of you guys on here have no interest whatsoever in making cash.

If you took a minute to look at the big picture, then you would see that the stock has surged on high volume quite a few times and then has a low grade-low volume selloff.

Give it a few more days and then it will surge. Post up your monkeys, your hairy characters, but that wont make you money.

Looking at the chart and trading on the big picture will make you money. So with that said, give it some more days and it will surge.

You guys also failed to realize that everything dot com is back in vogue. Look at NILE, BIDU, SFLY, etc. I never thought I would see any of those plays bid up like they are right now.

I dont believe in NILE's valuation at 74, but Im not going to question Mr. Market because, for one, he is a lot bigger then myself. Im going to simply follow along with Mr. Market until he turns against me.

Amazon will go higher and, when it does, its going to pop and pop hard.

If you dont like me for making good calls, then thats your personal problem. Im here to win and not lose then post pictures of hairy characters.
 
Bullshit michael. You called shorts on MA, AAPL, RIMM, and GOOG. If you can claim after those calls that you follow the market then I'm telling you right now that Ricky Gervais wants his character's stupidity back! :D
 
Michael,
I am an unfortunate short in this game. So with all hostility aside, sure the stock might be in an up trend and may very well be going higher. But honestly, how are you gonna play the valuation card on this one?
 
Ok. I will set aside the immaturity for a few minutes and discuss the fundamentals. Here is my thesis:

1) General market conditions- Nasdaq-100 index is flying higher. Its a growth index and growth is favored in the late stages of the business cycle. Amazon is a growth stock in the Nasdaq-100 growth index. While the SPX has been dancing uncertain up and down, left and right, the NDX has been the place to be without question.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^NDX

2) Amazon specific conditions- Circuit City, Tweeter (now bankrupt on the pinks), Best Buy, Sears Holdings, Radioshack, etc etc. All these retail outlets are having trouble. Read through their quarterly reports. The consumer is having trouble. Consumers still have to buy goods and when price counts then you turn to the web. Who wants to get ripped off on ebay when they can go to amazon?

3) China/Foreign play- Amazon is setup to take advantage of the online industry in foreign countries. They have the experience, knowledge and resources. They are perfectly aligned.

4) Technicals- Amazon has been consolidating for years and is now over a key price. I believe that on the technical chart the capacity exists to where the price can double from here.

5) Float considerations- Most of the float belongs to only a few shareholders who will not sell. Bill Miller at Legg Mason will not sell the Amazon shares.

6) Cramer and other media pumping AMZN- While some may laugh at this, whenever Cramer and the media start getting behind certain stocks, then they continue to grind higher as more attention gets placed around them. Most of the float is held by institutions like Legg and so retail investors end up wrestling for whatever is left. Cramer will continue to mention Amazon and his Thestreet.com will pump it.

7) Where is the drop?- Everyone has been talking about Amazon dropping and it has had 4 months to do so. Why hasnt it dropped yet? Is everyone still covering their shorts months later? Maybe the answer is that big money is throwing a floor udnerneath the price...

8) Valuation/PE- We have to face the fact that some stocks naturally trade at a very high P/E. Look at First Solar, look at JSDA, look at FTEK. All of these stocks seem to grind higher and higher reaching amazing levels with P/Es that seem like they are from the tech bubble. If investors are comfortable at these levels, then they are comfortable. Even though the P/E and valuation seem spooky, no one is selling their shares.

Right now we are at a key price point. If this goes above 75, then I will have confidence it will go to 85 and then advance to 100 from there. Cramer has named Amazon as one of his leading stocks and so the retail crowd will be wrestling for shares along with the shorts and the institutions.

Bill Miller buys stocks as they go up and has surely acquired even more. He will not sell until the price of Amazon recedes. . .

If you press me for a price point, then I would say Amazon makes it to 100.
 
I appreciate your long winded, yet educated response. Hard to get out of some people. But I don't know if I got my answer. This company is not a NEW story. Are you saying that the street is just now pricing in how great of a company this is? There's really no indication here. The consumer definately isn't becoming better off these days. Theres been plenty of articles about decreasing online sales due to gas prices, shipping charges etc. Even your buddy Cramer called it a short squeeze when it first popped to the 60's but said, "it wasn't time yet." The rumors are millions of shorts at this range. Who knows. I just don't see valuation through the smoke screen. And these P/E comparisons you're giving are apples and oranges. New companies that are barely making earnings yet. Let's be realistic. We've got opt/exp coming. Do you think AMZN can still hit the ground running at this speed come July 24th?

J
 
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