AMZN, is the dream finally over?
- Thread starter Pekelo
- Start date
Now, from a strictly technical analysis point of view, AMZN, while currently in a downtrend, seems to have found support around the $310 area, on the daily chart.
Let's see if it bounces back from that level...
first support around 280, hasn't traded under 300 in a while, I don't see how you make money on this long term on the bull side.
The double whammy with Amazon is that the stock also appreciated on its AWS and EC growth, and now everyone has jumped into cloud storage, another commodity where prices are plunging.
although they built out an impressive AWS / EC platform that takes away much of the headaches of security and global deployment to let developers focus on the content.
The pricing structure is absolutely absurd(for retail/small-mid business), they charge everything including # of I/O requests, process/memory utilization, server running (yes they charge you by the hour to keep a server instance running), you have no idea what the heck your total cost will be. I tried them for the first time switching one of my sites (with a small backend) to run on AWS, my bill after a month was ~$150, the same site was hosted on my linode pvs hosting for $40/month AND that same linode hosting is also running 3 of my other sites, all without issues.
I love amazon shopping even with the new taxes and prime price increase, but their aws/ec can screw off as far as i am concerned.
As for the stock, i am not shorting it it's just not worth the risk, at the same time there is no way i will own any either at the current valuation. Summary: not touching this with a 10 feet pole.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216...zon-com-saga?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=51
"The profitability myth
In the end, it all comes down to the profit myth. The profit myth is the one that states that Amazon.com was able to be more profitable in the past, so it will be more profitable in the future. Hence, if you just apply a larger margin percentage to the expanded sales base, you can justify just about anything.
This "Amazon has proven profitability in the past" belief is the key to the profitability myth around Amazon.com. The myth states that Amazon.com can have lots of profits ⦠later on.
I have already shown, however, that Amazon.com's profitability decline is structural and tied to its sales mix. I've shown that even with unchanged assumptions regarding the profitability of each of Amazon.com's main segments, we can produce a model that closely predicts Amazon.com's profitability over the last 6 years, including both the periods were Amazon.com was more profitable, and its recent unprofitability.
Thus, Amazon.com's profitability did not fall because of investments or a conscientious option. It fell because its sales mix changed, from a sales mix heavy in higher-margin media, to a sales mix heavy in lower-margin EGM. And since the previous sales mix is not coming back, the higher levels of profitability are not coming back, either....."
------------------------------
And going back to the "Why is Bezos rich if he is a bad business man?" argument, the answer is because he is like Madoff. He was rich too, but that didn't mean he knew how to invest or trade....
"The profitability myth
In the end, it all comes down to the profit myth. The profit myth is the one that states that Amazon.com was able to be more profitable in the past, so it will be more profitable in the future. Hence, if you just apply a larger margin percentage to the expanded sales base, you can justify just about anything.
This "Amazon has proven profitability in the past" belief is the key to the profitability myth around Amazon.com. The myth states that Amazon.com can have lots of profits ⦠later on.
I have already shown, however, that Amazon.com's profitability decline is structural and tied to its sales mix. I've shown that even with unchanged assumptions regarding the profitability of each of Amazon.com's main segments, we can produce a model that closely predicts Amazon.com's profitability over the last 6 years, including both the periods were Amazon.com was more profitable, and its recent unprofitability.
Thus, Amazon.com's profitability did not fall because of investments or a conscientious option. It fell because its sales mix changed, from a sales mix heavy in higher-margin media, to a sales mix heavy in lower-margin EGM. And since the previous sales mix is not coming back, the higher levels of profitability are not coming back, either....."
------------------------------
And going back to the "Why is Bezos rich if he is a bad business man?" argument, the answer is because he is like Madoff. He was rich too, but that didn't mean he knew how to invest or trade....
Seems for weeks before the earnings report there is well known(now anyways) rotation out of momo and small cap into reits, utilities , energy and bonds.
No thread about BAC yet? And C? They suck as well in what is also an underperformimg sector.
AMZN should be subsidized like AMTRACK or the US Mail. Its a comsumer staple stock, a national treasure. My fat ass wont go to Walmart anymore, forget about Best Buy . Click!
No thread about BAC yet? And C? They suck as well in what is also an underperformimg sector.
AMZN should be subsidized like AMTRACK or the US Mail. Its a comsumer staple stock, a national treasure. My fat ass wont go to Walmart anymore, forget about Best Buy . Click!
The US Mail isn't subsidized, it is actually profitable, if they don't have to fund pensions 200 years into the future. AMZN has been subsidized for nearly 2 decades by no sales taxes on websales, and that is just changing now....