AMZN - Earnings Thursday July 29 - My prediction and trading idea

[Overnight]

I'm on record for feeling really sorry for AMZN stockholders after today's once again plunge. I say it with all humility because I have been there and have since walked away from an otherwise stellar company. I'm a huge fan, but the stock? A bad financial analogy to the Caligula scene.. yes, that one.

3320 on 08/10 after a 3773 less than a month prior... I hope you shorted that baby!

Look very carefully at these two charts...

Here's AMZN entire history. Note the peak around beginning of September 2018 at ~1900.

Notice how it stuttered in a range for 15 months or so?

Here's a closer look on a 3 year chart...

Notice how it has stuttered for about a year? Which way do you think the stock is going to break out of it's stuttering range this time, especially with people who have gotten used to the company now, and will continue to use them? Especially if they are stuck back in their homes this holiday season?

North pole or bust? I say North pole, man. My 4000 call by Q1 2022 may be a bit premature, since from that time I made the call, things have changed a little in the world of geopolitics and health. There could be a drop-off in consumer confidence because of Afghan and all the other stuff. But 4K AMZN is a guarantee. It is just the when that is the niggling bit.

 

[OptionsOptionsOptions]

.......Notice how it has stuttered for about a year? Which way do you think the stock is going to break out of it's stuttering range this time........

• I think AMZN will run up to earnings and break 2T market cap in October.
  
• Earnings are tentatively scheduled for Oct. 27.
• I think I will try another $200 OTM long call position just before earnings.

 

[Overnight]

• I think AMZN will run up to earnings and break 2T market cap in October.
  
• Earnings are tentatively scheduled for Oct. 27.
• I think I will try another $200 OTM long call position just before earnings.

I don't know how it plays out in options, but their stellar earning report will be for Q4, which will report in Feb 2022 thereabouts. Maybe look at calls for that timeframe?

I cannot foresee Q3 earnings being all that great.

 

[VicBee]

Look very carefully at these two charts...

Here's AMZN entire history. Note the peak around beginning of September 2018 at ~1900.
View attachment 267479

Notice how it stuttered in a range for 15 months or so?

Here's a closer look on a 3 year chart...

View attachment 267480

Notice how it has stuttered for about a year? Which way do you think the stock is going to break out of it's stuttering range this time, especially with people who have gotten used to the company now, and will continue to use them? Especially if they are stuck back in their homes this holiday season?

North pole or bust? I say North pole, man. My 4000 call by Q1 2022 may be a bit premature, since from that time I made the call, things have changed a little in the world of geopolitics and health. There could be a drop-off in consumer confidence because of Afghan and all the other stuff. But 4K AMZN is a guarantee. It is just the when that is the niggling bit.

Wow, I'm impressed, you can be clear and coherent when you want to! actually I agree with you, the likelihood of seeing AMZN at 4000 in the next 12 to 15 months is very good. It shouldn't be a surprise since it already hit 3773 in mid July.
My concern with that stock (I don't trade options) is its ability to shed 10% in a day, for no apparent reason. If you're long and bought 3 years ago, it doesn't matter, but if you bought 100 shares in early September 2020, you'd have waited until early July 2021 to make 7%, and if you hadn't sold at that time, you'd still be waiting to make anything. It's a lot of sitting capital...
Swing or even day trading is an alternative, if you've got the confidence swinging large amounts of money at a time (I've been known to do that...)

 

[Overnight]

Wow, I'm impressed, you can be clear and coherent when you want to! ...

Well, yeah, I am ALWAYS clear and coherent. Sometimes, however, I couch my messages under wrappings and tell you it is a different thing, when actually, it is the thing you see before ye. It's a test.

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