Amgen : ready to plunge ?

[Chris Mac]

Amgen weekly chart is really interesting.
It is a mix of triple top and ascending triangle. Nice negative divergence with RSI.
I think it is a good short candidate if support @USD154/155 breaks.
Wait and see.

CM

 

[syswizard]

Shorting Biotech ? Man, it's been super-strong.
Why not pick another industry like mining or materials .. even consumer discretionary would be a decent short.

 

[Chris Mac]

it's been

As you said, has been.
Amgen is already -10% from his highs. S&P and Nasdaq -1% from their highs.
Best short opportunities are when a strong sector/stock begins to underperform.

CM

 

[syswizard]

Best short opportunities are when a strong sector/stock begins to underperform.
CM

You've back-tested this theory, right ?

 

[Chris Mac]

You've back-tested this theory, right ?

Backtesting basics ???
FYI it is called "relative strenght"
And yes thousands of quants and traders tested it and won money during the last 30 years.
Do your homework. Reread your classics.

CM

 

[volpunter]

Yes with his (nonexisting) bloomie backtest module.

You've back-tested this theory, right ?

 

[syswizard]

And yes thousands of quants and traders tested it and won money during the last 30 years.
Reread your classics.
CM

I'd rather read their brokerage statements to see if this is really true....that one can consistently make money shorting stocks in strong sectors when they start to crumble.

 

[xandman]

My biggest drawdowns in the last 2 years has been from biotech shorts.

I consider an Amgen in the same league as Merck and Pfizer. Widows and Orphans stock that gets accumulated on dips.

 

[Chris Mac]

I'd rather read their brokerage statements to see if this is really true....that one can consistently make money shorting stocks in strong sectors when they start to crumble.

Well finding best opportunities ie high reward risk ratio trades doesn t mean making easy money.
Because you try to anticipate the next trend before the crowd. You need good skills perfect timing and solid risk management.
Ofc it is easier to short a declining stock or sector for months even years but reward is less attractive because too crowded. For example shorting today Eurusd or oil and gas is not a good trade for me.

CM

 

[Chris Mac]

My biggest drawdowns in the last 2 years has been from biotech shorts.

I consider an Amgen in the same league as Merck and Pfizer. Widows and Orphans stock that gets accumulated on dips.

I know... I was long Biotech from 2010 until beginning of 2014. I was out too early. .. Cost of opportunity was too high for me... Frustrating to watch new highs and new highs. ..
Anyway I think we are closer and closer to the big short. Patience. Wait first if 154/155 breaks...

CM