AMD

[oldnemesis]

AMD has been having a hard time for quite a while now:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.AMD.NAS

and Zack's recently added AMD to it's strong sell list:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-amd-zacks-rank-220310719.html

The stock's performance compared to the S&P 500 has been abysmal.

So here's a cheap 'kick him while he's down' mini-trade:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMD+Interactive#{"allowChartStacking":true}

With AMD at $2.83
Jan '17 3.00/3.50 bear call spread for a net credit of $18
Yield = 18/32 = 56.2% in 292 days or 70% annualized.

There is current speculation that Intel may enter into a technology licensing agreement with AMD because of the expiration of a licensing arrangement between INTC and NVidia. This kind of situation renders the probability/expectation calculations more irrelevant than usual so I'll skip them here. (To some it may also raise the possibility of an Intel/AMD acquisition).

Price........ Profit / Loss........ ROM %
2.00................ 18.00............ 56.20%
2.50................ 18.00............ 56.20%
3.00................ 18.00............ 56.20%
3.01................ 17.00............ 53.00%
3.18.................. 0.00............. 0.00%
3.46............... (28.50).......... -57.00%
3.50............... (32.00).......... -64.00%
4.00............... (32.00).......... -64.00%
4.50............... (32.00).......... -64.00%

 

[Buy1Sell2]

AMD continues to be in an uptrend. Buy proper pullbacks on this one. Profits from earlier trades should have been taken midday 2/28.

 

[Pekelo]

AMD continues to be in an uptrend. Buy proper pullbacks on this one. Profits from earlier trades should have been taken midday 2/28.

1. What is a proper pullback? I think when the daily hits the lower BB (3 days ago at 12.5) that is a proper pullback.
2. How did you decide on 2/28 beside looking at the chart and seeing the highest price with 20/20 vision? What was your indicator for the sell? Was it price hitting the upper BB on the daily?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

1. What is a proper pullback? I think when the daily hits the lower BB (3 days ago at 12.5) that is a proper pullback.
2. How did you decide on 2/28 beside looking at the chart and seeing the highest price with 20/20 vision? What was your indicator for the sell? Was it price hitting the upper BB on the daily?

I hadn't looked at AMD until today, so was looking hindsight. However, I know myself well and would have sold 2/28 midday. I am not able to reveal my sell signal but will outline it in broad terms----Proper pullback is one where we are in an uptrend based upon weekly charts and price pulls back and then exhibits upward momentum based upon daily, 4 hr and hourly charts. It is best to have the entries on the hourly or 4 hour and using the 3 you can get good confirm. Another instance of proper pullback would be a deeply oversold condition on RSI during a weekly chart uptrend.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

1. What is a proper pullback? I think when the daily hits the lower BB (3 days ago at 12.5) that is a proper pullback.
2. How did you decide on 2/28 beside looking at the chart and seeing the highest price with 20/20 vision? What was your indicator for the sell? Was it price hitting the upper BB on the daily?

Right now I would hazard a guess that AMD could pull back to mid 11's and no farther before gathering upward steam again. Since we are in an uptrend, I will only look to buy on proper pullback and that could be anywhere.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Do I know where the market will go? No. But I believe there is a higher likelihood than not, of higher prices in the future over the course of the mid and long terms.

 

[Pekelo]

Well, thanks for your answers. As indicated in my previous post, I would have used the BB with the daily chart. In the case of AMD it gave perfect signals for both the sell and the buyback....

 

[Buy1Sell2]

At the moment, you would need prices to fall below 11 to negate the current strong uptrend here.

 

[truetype]

It's come a long way since the OP's "AMD at $2.83"...

UPDATE: AMD stock gains after Stifel hikes price target
1:23 pm ET June 1, 2018 (MarketWatch)

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) shares are up 3.7 in Friday trading after Stifel analyst Kevin Cassidy raised his price target to $17 from $14. "We continue to see AMD meeting its product introduction milestones which is increasing their customers' confidence in adopting AMD CPUs and GPUs," he wrote. "Now we see end demand forecasts for PCs, servers and graphics add-in-cards as increasing." Cassidy, who has a buy rating on AMD's stock, said he's encouraged by the recent introduction of a new Cisco server platform that uses AMD's Epyc 7000 series processors. "We believe other server OEMs have realized the benefits of EPYC and will be making similar announcements soon," Cassidy wrote. Shares are up 26% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 has gained 11% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index has risen 26%.

 

[vanzandt]

It's come a long way since the OP's "AMD at $2.83"...

UPDATE: AMD stock gains after Stifel hikes price target
1:23 pm ET June 1, 2018 (MarketWatch)

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) shares are up 3.7 in Friday trading after Stifel analyst Kevin Cassidy raised his price target to $17 from $14. "We continue to see AMD meeting its product introduction milestones which is increasing their customers' confidence in adopting AMD CPUs and GPUs," he wrote. "Now we see end demand forecasts for PCs, servers and graphics add-in-cards as increasing." Cassidy, who has a buy rating on AMD's stock, said he's encouraged by the recent introduction of a new Cisco server platform that uses AMD's Epyc 7000 series processors. "We believe other server OEMs have realized the benefits of EPYC and will be making similar announcements soon," Cassidy wrote. Shares are up 26% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 has gained 11% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index has risen 26%.

Pfff. 6 weeks ago it was $10/share.
Where was this analyst then?
Are we to believe this great increase in demand for PC's, servers, and graphic cards suddenly manifested out of the blue in the last month and a half?
How much do analysts bring down a year anyway? Whatever it is... its too much.