Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Sales up 34% to $43.7 Billion
- Thread starter ajacobson
- Start date
It is not true. It does not mean that the whole market should go down. Look at GE right now. Let's say tomorrow AMZN can go to $950 as market can believe that valuation of AMZN is high and then slowly as AMZN profits go up stock can make make meaning adjustments. I do want to argue with you as what I am saying makes sense but not that it will happen.
Check out AMZN earning chart. The only thing that should happen tomorrow is that all analysts who predicted 3 cents per share be spanked in the ass as that is where they got this estimate. Based on this chart, AMZN results were not good and flat YOY Q3 vs Q3. However you can buy the shares at 1200 if you do not find any place to dump your money.
This was the average of many analysts. All copied from each other and just increased or subtracted by 1 cents in their estimate.
As thereare too many moving parts to make a good prediction, the analysts should not be surprised by seeing AMZN had the same YOY earnings.
Only AMZN could have an earnings release thread this long.
I just don't think this is overvalued though because the earnings are around 1 or 2% of revenue. So very small improvements in revenue and cost of revenue will have very large impact on earnings. If revenues were higher by just 10% the P/E ratio is in the high 30s / low 40s.
The only other step you need to take to suggest this value is fair is that the company has the ability to cut costs of revenue or increase revenue to widen that margin by 10%. Nevermind much of that revenue is going into infrastructure that will return income for years to come and provide a wide moat.
You're looking at the earnings miss, but revenue margins. This was an ordinary revenue calculation well within the range of professional competence. It just looks massive in earnings because there's so little cash that comes out of AMZN.
I just don't think this is overvalued though because the earnings are around 1 or 2% of revenue. So very small improvements in revenue and cost of revenue will have very large impact on earnings. If revenues were higher by just 10% the P/E ratio is in the high 30s / low 40s.
The only other step you need to take to suggest this value is fair is that the company has the ability to cut costs of revenue or increase revenue to widen that margin by 10%. Nevermind much of that revenue is going into infrastructure that will return income for years to come and provide a wide moat.
It was me. 980 straddle would give you $45. That trade would give you protected till 1025 and then it will incur loss. As someone said 100 shares of AMZN is the price of a condo in some states so you do not do 100s of them. Then when you are short at 1025, you keep selling weekly 1025 PUTs till you get out. After a few weeks you can get out or you can thrown white towel if you feel so
Show me the way where 100 shares of Amazon is the price of a condo?
I would be happy to buy.....condos near me are all in the hundreds and hundreds of thousands...and on top of that you have fees and fees and more fees... Yep that housing crisis back in 2007 and the bailout of wallstreet ...banks...housing and equities has only created an even more uneven playing field... everything is inflated to the extremes...thank you Bubble ben bernanke, yellen and friends for creating the biggest asset bubble the world has ever witnessed .....
While I believe it is a cult stock trading on hype it's earnings are whatever they want them to be. I think they spend $15-$20B on R&D...cut that in half and earnings pop. The real money is in AWS though. Very true though, if they cut shipping costs, their earnings would increase billions as I believe it's 10% of revenues...they get their drone service to deliver, that last costly mile, and that will fall dramatically. It's no coincidence that when WS begs for profit they come up with a $1.5-$2 in EPS only for it to disappear in coming quarters. Hopefully, for Hajimow, it does what it did, last quarter, get to $1050/$1080 whatever it was before it fell 80pts in the following days and stay under $1000 till, last week.