Amazon 114

M

michaelscott

For those of you who follow my threads, I do have a few bullish picks such as PTT, CSUN and a few others. However, the one stock that I am most bullish about is Amazon.

It is clear to me that this stock will reach at least 114 and any close above that will make it go to 200.

I have been bullish on Amazon since the conference call while others dismissed it casually and wanted to short it buying "puts". Well, its been some time after the call and all we have seen is consolidation and advance.

Many of you are still bitter from the tech days when it went from 110 to 6 dollars within 1 year of time.

Lets think this out *logically*. Some of you guys are perfectly willing to jump on Apple over an unproven cell phone that isnt even on sale yet, Mastercard - an obviously overvalued play with pending litigation and which had posted several quarters of non-growth in the years before it went public, Jones Soda over a framework distribution agreement, Google because its Google, RIMM just because everyone sports it at the local happy hour etc. Some of you guys never even thought out any of these decisions, never read the 10-Q and just decided to hop aboard with the rest of the bucket shop traders. Yet you same traders are not willing to jump aboard Amazon which had a great conference call and where the possibility of a buyout by Google or Yahoo is so real.

I laugh at you guys in the Apple threads who wonder why your Apple stock is tumbling on high volume. Come on, this was all about some guy in jeans holding up a phone that isnt on sale yet and then a bunch of bucket shop traders bidding it up on 200X margin.

This is the new economy where no one buys stuff at Circuit City or Tweeter anymore. They head off to Amazon to buy their electronics only stopping by Circuit City for a quick inspection of what they will buy on Amazon.

The tech bubble days are over, long gone. Now its time to forget what happened with Amazon in the past crashing down from over 100 to the low 6s.

I am now issuing a triple buy on Amazon and will not be wrong on this one. Amazon triple digits once more!!! Welcome in the new economy!!!
 
What is your case for amazon? Surely, it can't be that iPhone is not out yet and other observations around people being bitten by dotcom bubble.

Where do you think amazon will get its next billion in revenue from?
 
I know if I buy AMZN, it will go down..lol.

I also had it a 9 and sold at 9.50 late 01' or 02' when everyone was laughing at me for scooping up all beaten up tech's. Imagine if I held...but then again I would be broke if I held some companies that went Chapter 11 or pink sheets. I can't win...

SUNW, ORCL, CSCO, etc. AMZN are stocks I will never go long, swing trade, day trade.

For the record I thought AMZN was a short candidate in the 50's couple months ago, now its 72, ouch.
 
Quote from michaelscott:

Yet you same traders are not willing to jump aboard Amazon which had a great conference call and where the possibility of a buyout by Google or Yahoo is so real.

This is the new economy where no one buys stuff at Circuit City or Tweeter anymore. They head off to Amazon to buy their electronics only stopping by Circuit City for a quick inspection of what they will buy on Amazon.

The tech bubble days are over, long gone. Now its time to forget what happened with Amazon in the past crashing down from over 100 to the low 6s.

I am now issuing a triple buy on Amazon and will not be wrong on this one. Amazon triple digits once more!!! Welcome in the new economy!!!
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Hi Michael,

Your thread title grabbed my attention mostly because I do business with Amazon...mostly buying books ...I'll leave it to you to decide what kind of books.

I have quoted a couple pieces from your post since lately there have been some interesting articles I read about Google and eBay.

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20070615/D8PPE4HO1.html

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20070615/D8PPCH100.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19250983

Is there a possibility of a buyout?...Who can say with certainty? But it does offer some serious intellectual speculation in light of the above articles. It might prove a good fit for Google.

The second quoted part of your posting rings loud and clear the same message prior to the crash of 2000. I do not know if your choice of words was intentional or not, however for me personally it offers a warning more than an opportunity.

GT
 
Michael-

What happens to AMZN if het hit the downdraft in equiy market you are talking about? (about 100pts. on SPX) if I recall......

Just read the NYT article and how have to say while AMZN is a great company and web site for alot of things.....I do not buy anything of significance there...($100 worth of books at most annual) Everyone I know buys their flat screen TVs at Circuit City & Best Buy.....

Bezos comments on Harry Potter and zero profits margins are bothersome...You are proably better off waiting to go long after the next quarter's report to see if there change of direction here...

Lots of risk IMO here as it seems to be getting head of itself regarding potential earnings and revs growth, pe, and even a buyout offer from GOOG etc....

As far as "new economy"...I'm not sure I'm board with that thesis. Have alook at all the malls, outlets, retail space construction going on? The internet has been out for awhile now and AMZN seems to be still not even showing up as a sliver on the retail sales pie chart...
 
First, you have to address the issues why the stock popped on a volume of 104 million on April 25th. As well, you need to look at the reasons why there was a volume spike in the days preceeding the earnings call and after the earnings call. The convenient lazy answer is "short covering" but there were only 17 million shares short before the earnings call. A 104 million volume day would have surely taken care of that.

Look back at the chart of Amazon in 1999. You will find that the second highest volume day during that period was at 79 million on September 29th, 1999. In fact, there were quite a few high volume days in 1999 with the volume over 10 million and then overe 20 million at times.

After Christmas 1999, the volume went away and we saw the slow and gradual decline of Amazon from the triple digits to the low single digits.

The key here is volume and the chart. Why was someone accumulating the stock before the earnings call and why are they continuing to accumulate it one month later? Why did the stock have its highest volume day EVER in the history of its trading in April? The excuse of a little short covering isnt valid, the stock hasnt pulled back and keeps moving forward on a higher volume.

Amazon stopped trading with the overall market in early 2004. In fact, I believe it has underperformed the SPX greatly since then by a huge margin.

If the economy goes lower, then people still have to shop and they will flock to online retailers rather then Circuit City. There is also another issue of online media which Amazon specializes in.

If the SPY moves lower, then Amazon will not follow. In March of 2000, the SPY hit 155.75 and then the week of May 29th 2007 it hit 154.40. Why is someone dumping the spy at high volume when its obviously at the top of the chart?

I have observed that a dump on high volume usually marks a top or a bottom. What I am observing is a market top for the SPY..if you go back, you can see the market bottoms where there were similiar high volume dumps.

As for Amazon, all I see is high volume days where the stock seems to go up. I can only imagine that we will see more days to come filled with high volume going up and that the next logical pivot point will be at approximately 114 where a decision will be made either to dump it or take it higher.
 
AMZNs margins suck, their expansion is limited to due to taxation issues, they are heavily involved in the race to the bottom and will have a hard time justifying this price in the future. The internet isn't new, AMZN has been out there for years and years and while I use it a lot, their stock price is pure shit. Next few earnings reports will see them knocked off their high horse.

:D
 
Quote from michaelscott:

The key here is volume and the chart. Why was someone accumulating the stock before the earnings call and why are they continuing to accumulate it one month later? Why did the stock have its highest volume day EVER in the history of its trading in April? The excuse of a little short covering isnt valid, the stock hasnt pulled back and keeps moving forward on a higher volume.


As for Amazon, all I see is high volume days where the stock seems to go up. I can only imagine that we will see more days to come filled with high volume going up and that the next logical pivot point will be at approximately 114 where a decision will be made either to dump it or take it higher. [/B]
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Chart, high volume up days, new economy blah blah blah....

If you are going to talk about how this is bullish for AMZN ...apply it to AAPL as well...now selling off...Your flip flop analysis on different securities is getting tiresome...

Check out the front page article on AMZN in Sunday's NYT...Now if ebay goog comes in and takes them out...different story..you may get your 114...highly unlikely imo ..I bet it comes crashing back into the gap nonwithstanding that at some point in next year....

Just not impressed with the fundys here, business model, or price.
 
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