Quote from EMRGLOBAL:
This may not be a popular thread...nor the BuylowSellHigh handel...well liked. However, He post information, that is valid most of the time.
Two weeks ago, I was told that a major bank was close to failing and that the Feds are very much tap'd. A source that is tied very close to GS explained that the damage has yet to come. Of course, I play in the OIL GAME as do my clients so we tend to ignore all the "Market" data...as it doesn't relate to our world. But never the less, High Net Worth Groups tend fall into 2 degrees of seperation....many know each other and very few are in the Stock Market, let alone investing in equities. A few of my clients also spoke of the rumor of more bank failuers, bigger on the Commercial RE end..
Friday COL. Bank and PENN THRIFT. collapse.
I am now hearing that the second wave (Extended Stay RE imploding) of commerical RE is about to shit a big brick. Who knows....
all I know is that we are not close to being in a Bull Market and the eye of the storm is fading and thicker, heavery darker clouds are on the Horizon.
I'm one of a handful of people who posts reality and those who are involved in the financial industry (there are a few who hang out here and elsewhere) hate it.
The more people that come to the factual realization that, yes, we really are headed for a true plunge, and that the government is out of tools, the sooner the ability of the majority of those in the financial industry to reap a decent living ends. Too bad; looks like they'll have to innovate like much of the rest of honest, hard working (and getting screwed over in the process) Americans have been struggling to do to survive.
RMBSs are no where towards bottoming out, as amazing as that seems with all the price destruction of the underlying assets, partly due to demographics and partly due to serious, continuing deterioration of the fundamental economy.
The CMBS nightmare has only just begun, and will be a significant additional stressor taxing financials, governments and things as far flung as foreign money markets.
No more free lunch.
The curtain on government impotency (and fraud) is lifting.
The overwhelming majority of banks near urban centers (i.e. most banks, period) are in deep shit. They can cook their books, even with government assistance and encouragement, but they can't make tin worth gold, no matter how much cooking of those books they do.
The ugly, ugly truth about the state of the American economy - and banking and financial system - is dawning.
We are going to have another depression. It's roots are already too deeply implanted and hearty to be displaced by anything the Fed or Treasury (especially given our deficit/debt situation) have in their work trucks.