Takes way less than that , although,
this field, to a certain point, has a strong correlation with, ones, cognitive ability, thus in ,,extreme cases", 20 years might be true.
In the end i would only applouse such mans determination and persistance.
amateurs have no chance
- Thread starter dozu888
- Start date
this field, to a certain point, has a strong correlation with, ones, cognitive ability, thus in ,,extreme cases", 20 years might be true.
In the end i would only applouse such mans determination and persistance.
the Olympics?
Really? Other than bball there are no pros in the Olympics. When the US was legitimately the only team fielding nothing but pros... they always won.
Agree, with a little correction - twenty years as an average: for someone five years or less, for someone never.
Ou, sorry, typed before reading all - the correction was already in place.
Thank you, Norbert, for expressing it so concisely in such a nice way.
I believe we can dedicate the applause right here to our Padutrader, since 1994 and soon will be over- profitable!
Last edited:
For those of you who don't understand politically correct English I will go out of my way to translate this for you.
If you're thick then you have no chance.
Well said Nobert - and a lovely choice of words too!
padu said elsewhere he been trading for a quater of century and never made a dime....that`s a tough one.how strong the ego can be is amazing!
so in a broader view...
using the forexIG data - we knew a correction has to be done, we just had no idea when... afterall the short/long ratio going from 9:1 in 2017 to 1:1 in October took a long time, and really the pros could start the attack once the ratio got to 6:4 area... but.. short term traders can still take advantage once the sell-down started in October... myself as a long term accumulator just added more somewhere down below... that's just a style difference, not too significant - which is why they say 'bulls make money, bears make money' etc.
now that we are almost back to the old high, and the ratio has shifted to about 7.5 : 2.5 ... the pros have achieved their goal.. they have collected the chip and ready for the next push, probably coincide with the April earnings.
by the way, even though amateurs like to say 'the trend is your friend', most of them are counter trend traders... they like to pick up beaten down garbage (looking how long they are in gold and bitcoin), and short against risers like the sp500.... it's understandable... egos at work, because trend follow makes you feel stupid on the entry, and you have to wait for the exit to feel smart lol.... while counter trend trades make you feel smart at the entry (hey that thing was $100 yesterday, look how I picked it up at $90), even though days later he'd feel quite stupid lol.
anyway, the way the pros did it was brilliant... from Jan to March almost a straight rise, very few opportunities to give amateur speculators to breath and think thru and get back on the train.... this makes sense and how a hard shake should be done... beat it down hard, get rid of the short term guys, collect the chip and get up here quick.
fundamental valuation wise, again, imagine if the 10 year yield doubles from 2.5 to 5, bonds will need to collapse by 50%? yet that 5% is still below the 6% forward sp500 earning yield... the valuation is so out of whack, but they don't advertise it on marketwatch.com... you need independent thinking to see thru this... but most people just rely on their 'financial advisor' to tell them 60% equities 40% bonds... blindly.
finally - thinking like the pros empower you... yes we are small traders, we cannot move the market... but if you play on the right team, it's like the team is playing for you.... the smartest guys are playing for you.... it's no longer like you are a leaf drifting in the ocean... you know the market has a purpose, your guys are working the price to achieve that purpose... just position correctly, let your guys get you better prices, and when the final purpose is achieved, you will be rewarded dearly.
and what is the final purpose? where will we reach equalibrium again on the yields? where is the middle ground between 2.5% and 6%?... is it 4% which means sp needs to rise 50% from here? or are we in a permanent 3% environment? which means SP is undervalued by a double?
in 2016 I had this thread 'are we gonna run out of shares'... you look at the answers in that thread, nobody had a clue... today you ask that question again, still nobody can give a clear answer... that is good... that means the sideline money is still very big out there.
happy Sunday!
using the forexIG data - we knew a correction has to be done, we just had no idea when... afterall the short/long ratio going from 9:1 in 2017 to 1:1 in October took a long time, and really the pros could start the attack once the ratio got to 6:4 area... but.. short term traders can still take advantage once the sell-down started in October... myself as a long term accumulator just added more somewhere down below... that's just a style difference, not too significant - which is why they say 'bulls make money, bears make money' etc.
now that we are almost back to the old high, and the ratio has shifted to about 7.5 : 2.5 ... the pros have achieved their goal.. they have collected the chip and ready for the next push, probably coincide with the April earnings.
by the way, even though amateurs like to say 'the trend is your friend', most of them are counter trend traders... they like to pick up beaten down garbage (looking how long they are in gold and bitcoin), and short against risers like the sp500.... it's understandable... egos at work, because trend follow makes you feel stupid on the entry, and you have to wait for the exit to feel smart lol.... while counter trend trades make you feel smart at the entry (hey that thing was $100 yesterday, look how I picked it up at $90), even though days later he'd feel quite stupid lol.
anyway, the way the pros did it was brilliant... from Jan to March almost a straight rise, very few opportunities to give amateur speculators to breath and think thru and get back on the train.... this makes sense and how a hard shake should be done... beat it down hard, get rid of the short term guys, collect the chip and get up here quick.
fundamental valuation wise, again, imagine if the 10 year yield doubles from 2.5 to 5, bonds will need to collapse by 50%? yet that 5% is still below the 6% forward sp500 earning yield... the valuation is so out of whack, but they don't advertise it on marketwatch.com... you need independent thinking to see thru this... but most people just rely on their 'financial advisor' to tell them 60% equities 40% bonds... blindly.
finally - thinking like the pros empower you... yes we are small traders, we cannot move the market... but if you play on the right team, it's like the team is playing for you.... the smartest guys are playing for you.... it's no longer like you are a leaf drifting in the ocean... you know the market has a purpose, your guys are working the price to achieve that purpose... just position correctly, let your guys get you better prices, and when the final purpose is achieved, you will be rewarded dearly.
and what is the final purpose? where will we reach equalibrium again on the yields? where is the middle ground between 2.5% and 6%?... is it 4% which means sp needs to rise 50% from here? or are we in a permanent 3% environment? which means SP is undervalued by a double?
in 2016 I had this thread 'are we gonna run out of shares'... you look at the answers in that thread, nobody had a clue... today you ask that question again, still nobody can give a clear answer... that is good... that means the sideline money is still very big out there.
happy Sunday!
CSE - thanks to you for support.
Congratz @padutrader then
Il remember your nick name, as an alternative, to the word, persistance.
Last edited:
Here's an oldie but goodie thread along these lines with some very good insights.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/trading-catechism.295206/
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/trading-catechism.295206/
That Nitro disappeared from here... but he was no dummy. Far from it as I saw things. They both make good points. Thats why I quasi-resurrected the thread. It applies to this thread.
Dozu makes great points here... its all a game of numbers really. But its also a game of musical chairs. And the so called "big money" is NOT on the same team. Thats important to remember. The games work great... until they don't. When the music stops.... no one wants to be holding the bag.
Good read for the week ahead: https://www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-200400500
Last edited: