AMAT and CHiP Stocks

A

ARogueTrader

AMAT is due to report next week on the 18th after the bell (Wednesday).

A review of the chip sector's primary components of INTC, AMAT as revealed in the SMH indicates we are at key support.

I think the direction will become clear after AMAT's numbers.

If INTC remains a "channeling stock" we are at a good place to be a buyer. If we fail at support, I think we are headed to 25.

Friday's action was primarily about the decline in chip stocks, as the box makers (DELL, HPQ, IBM) all held rather firmly.

http://members.cox.net/aroguetrader/chips.jpg
 
I too think that AMAT is heading to $25. I bought it on Friday @ 21.67. I now hold 16000 shares Long. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
 
on the open if futures are lower

also Barrons this weekend in the Abelson column
had a guest pan the sox index valuations

they have done this before ... so perhaps the BS won't work
this time for their readers

good luck ... I have no position in any chippies at this time
 
Chip industry is in for a little awakening, not sure if INTC is going to 25, but i do see a bloody situation at hand if the SOX index breaks down. This will not happen overnight ofcourse, IMHO I think many hedge funds are short the TECHs and are building bigger postions as this rally starts to fade. Mutal funds flow are up for a reason, and its not the smart money thats long.
 
Quote from ertrader1:

Chip industry is in for a little awakening, not sure if INTC is going to 25, but i do see a bloody situation at hand if the SOX index breaks down. This will not happen overnight ofcourse, IMHO I think many hedge funds are short the TECHs and are building bigger postions as this rally starts to fade. Mutal funds flow are up for a reason, and its not the smart money thats long.
More...

Well, I'm a sentiment follower. I've got a very positive signal of the long-term player's sentiment on Friday. It looks that insiders are buying too prior the report on 18th. I hope I'm right. I wont lie, I have butterflies in my stomach! :)
 
Gambling on earnings can be dangerous.

Also, earnings comes a couple of days before option expiration.

If I were going to bet long in a major way, I would buy some cheap insurance (Feb puts) in case I was wrong.

What the charts are saying is that the chip sector is weak right now, that the DOW and the S&P500 went to new highs while the chip sector was floundering.

I am positive on chips long term, but I will likely go flat prior to the earnings news, or hedge with options if I take a long or short position.

We are nearing key support on INTC and AMAT, reflected by the SMH.

Breaking that support, there could be a real watershed down.

Also, I think we get book to bill ratio reports this next week.

Important news for the chip sector.

By the way, I know of 2 large hedge funds playing AMAT, one is long the stock, the other is long AMAT puts.

Quote from abogdan:

Well, I'm a sentiment follower. I've got a very positive signal of the long-term player's sentiment on Friday. It looks that insiders are buying too prior the report on 18th. I hope I'm right. I wont lie, I have butterflies in my stomach! :)
More...
 
I’m also short April calls ($25 strike) and twice the amount of $20 April puts. I'm net positive with enough capital to get stock at $20 if they feed it to me on expiration of my puts.
 
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