Am I Wasting My Time?

fractalize said:
Live testing (small size) gives you a picture of where (or if) your orders might get filled. In many cases, a backtesting model can't be trusted without this live data, so live and backtesting should be combined. Once you're able to build a single strategy with that information, you can then build a strategy farm. That's a whole different ballgame. You have to be some form of a quant.
More...
From what Ive seen so far, I can agree with this. From every professional trader I've heard speak, they all how some quantifiable edge that they can look at.

I recently saw an interview with a trader at DRW and all he talked about was expected value and finding your edge. No moving average crosses, no fib retracements, no candlestick patterns. Just hard statistics about where is this instrument trading now, and what is our expected value around it. This was really eye-opening to me.

For me personally, I would have a really hard time trading a system or method that I didn't personally crunch some numbers on to see where the edge is and what it looks like.
 
d08 said:
Live testing something for months doesn't give you the real picture because the sample size is too small. Market conditions vary and some only happen once in a decade. Testing something in a certain market and assuming it "works" is a mistake.

Without looking at data, the discretionary trader would have no idea.
More...
d08,

This is the best post I read on the ET forum in a very long time. I am living proof you are 1000% correct. And I have the proof to show you, you are correct as well.

IMO, and from my experience these past two years 2018 until present is good testing sample to see if trading methods can withstand different market conditions.
 
  • Like
Reactions: d08
fractalize said:
Live testing (small size) gives you a picture of where (or if) your orders might get filled. In many cases, a backtesting model can't be trusted without this live data, so live and backtesting should be combined. Once you're able to build a single strategy with that information, you can then build a strategy farm. That's a whole different ballgame. You have to be some form of a quant.
More...

Sure but I think that was not what @themickey meant. You're talking about execution/sim overlap which means you're already past the first stage.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Are you 100% sure you are accurate on this statement? This is a very powerful and influential statement you are making that could really lead an inexperienced trader down the wrong path.
More...
Unfortunately yes. It doesn't mean you can't use some intuition or context, or even live trade while you develop, but only for research purposes, otherwise you're just dodging bullets, instead of shooting them.
 
d08 said:
You're talking about execution/sim overlap which means you're already past the first stage.
More...
That's correct. I just emphasized it, since many neophytes don't have a grasp on order flow dynamics.
 
fractalize said:
Unfortunately yes. It doesn't mean you can't use some intuition or context, or even live trade while you develop, but only for research purposes, otherwise you're just dodging bullets, instead of shooting them.
More...

fractalize,

No disrespect to you (I am an unprofitable day trader, so just my opinion), but I think your statement is misleading and unprofessional and can really send a newbie trader in the wrong direction.

"If you are not a quant, you have next to zero chance of making it as a trader."

So you are saying that everyone here on ET who is not quant, is not trading for living?

Again, I really think you should edit your post, but just my 2 cents.
 
In my opinion you really need to experience about 1,000 sessions hours minimum (approx 8,000 hours) of live screen time as well in addition to all the other stuff people are mentioning.
Practice trading, live trading as well as backtesting - keeping detailed journals daily. It takes alot of hours and work to acquire all the elements needed to be consistently successful and disciplined trader.





fractalize said:
Live testing (small size) gives you a picture of where (or if) your orders might get filled. In many cases, a backtesting model can't be trusted without this live data, so live and backtesting should be combined. Once you're able to build a single strategy with that information, you can then build a strategy farm. That's a whole different ballgame. You have to be some form of a quant.
More...
 
Grantx said:
That's not success. It is either luck or insider trading.
More...
I'm new too. But I was wondering how often does a stock like kodak happen in where it sky rockets like that. Just curious if you can recall in your experience. Not sure how long you've been at it
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top