Am I Wasting My Time?

[Tall Mike]

Sooo much negativity as a new trader it may be best for me to stop reading these forums.Most of this cant be good for my trading or psychology in general.

Dude you have a 100k bankroll. Already, ahead of probably +%90 of humans on the planet, let alone being able to invest or gamble (take risks with that 100k). Yet you start off by complaining? About "wasting your time" I am sure there are lots of easier ways to make a living than trading. There is probably few other ways to be able to make $10k in a few minutes with that bankroll (on a good day meaning luck is on your side).

Everyone just wants to cry and pout. Yes I am a ****ing gambler. Not only do I admit it, I OWN IT. and I will be one of the best in the ****ing history books. I even read one poster crying about "yeah well ten year Bull-Market, cry, blah, cry, blah, the algos ! the Renaissance has the Edge!

So yes dude you are wasting your time. Pull your skirt up and go invest in a car wash or something, trading is likely not for you.

Just trying to weigh out the options from a logical point of view my guy, something I don't see beginners do at all. Too many beginners are asking the wrong questions.

Just trying to get some advice from real traders here who have made it is all.

Didnt mean to come across as whining, but just thinking about the real expected outcomes here.

 

[Stockboy]

Tall Mike please forgive me if I was being rude man. I am not trying to justify me being a d*** but I am still a freshman trader and am a member of this "elitetraders" forum for several reasons. Seeing the constant negativity posted on this forum in regards to this business, I feel has had a negative effect on my psychology and therefor my bottom line. Furthermore, there are so many wannabe traders that dont even have enough to daytrade retail (30k just to even have a tiny,intsy bintsy cushion over PDT, than someone says they have a 100k but this isnt EVEN "enough" to make a living (you can get up to 20x margin on 5-10k at a prop firm, = 100-200k buying power just FYI).

I did get a little emotional because it is such a negative mindstate, and I have read such negativity on here that I was questioning whether being a member here is not only wasting my time but actually hurting me.

So for starters, you dont really give much information. For example, shining shoes might not be "worth it" to a kid who lives on the upper westside and parents pay for him to go to private school, while a kid from a village in Paraguay might find it "worth it". You don't really give any goals or expectations that we can even begin to actually answer your questions. You do however make bold statesments, such as "even with a 100k bankroll you cant make a living". What exactly do you consider a living? I know traders that would try and make a 1g a day with that, trading conservatively, however I still cant say if an "average" of say 16k a month is a "living" for you. So basically, your question is very vague, and is actually much more of a statement. Not sure how you expect any real answers other than from losers to tell you what you probably already feel that its not something you care to do.

It kind of sucks you have to come to "elitetraders" to confirm your bias/idea to not trade. Ive heard from countless traders that, "trading for a living will be the hardest thing you ever do", Ive worked some really s*** jobs and commission only sales, and although I am still new I think I agree with that statement. Also, dude everything isnt for everybody and there shouldnt be no shame in acknowledging that, its much better I believe to know what works for you. for example, everyone will tell you being a doctor is the best job, status, meaning, helping humanity, but dude no way I could ever do that job, for starters I cant stand the amount of responsibility I'd have for some one elses health and would be miserable every ****ing day. I am not ashamed of it, and sure I could make the big bux and blah, blah, blah. To me "its not worth it, nor could I have the desire to get through 10+ years of study & residency. Just an example.

In ending my mentor tells his kids that there is no way in ****ing **** they can be traders. He makes what I consider a fantastic living (knock on wood). Just something to think about.

So, main point is we cant really answer your question because its too vague and more of a statement. To even just agree or disagree would be disingenuous.

And good luck whether you decide trading is for you or isnt.

 

[fractalize]

I can't determine whether you're wasting time, but I can tell you how to invest your time, to have a fighting chance. Hopefully, my advice falls on open ears.

Price has minimal conditions that can be measured, filtered, and quantified. This is the area where generic methods fail, as it doesn't address what's important. Price action can be assigned parameters from said conditions that represent repeatable patterns that occur ad nauseam. Over a large enough sample size encompassing all market conditions, a probability can be assigned. This is your edge. These edges don't come from basic and generic (well promoted) indicators. Price has certain characteristics such as volatility, momentum, range, trend ... Without an intuitive system that adjusts to dynamics in these "definables", your success using these generic methods will be limited or non-existent.

PRICE, TIME, TREND, VOLATILITY, MOMENTUM, RANGE. Get a handle on them and get some rules pertaining to them. Without an empirically tested rules-based system, you are a gambler. Rules are filters that adjust trading dynamically with changing market conditions. 99% of people here will NEVER get a handle on this. The market is a living dynamic beast, and if your system isn't, you are doomed in the long term. Dynamic position size and stop losses are required and are beyond the realm of dumbasses.

If you properly apply the above, the byproduct will be an edge with a defined positive expectancy. Both sides of expectancy need to be measured accurately. Trade win rate and risk:reward are the basis for a successful daytrader, and 99% will have no idea on accurate definitions of either. If you are not a quant, you have next to zero chance of making it as a trader. Drawdown is your enemy. Only quants can get a handle on calculating max DD, and controlling trade size to maintain acceptable levels of DD without hurting returns, which is the sweet spot. Most daytraders are morons. Intelligence is mandatory, but not out of reach.

 

[simmonjoshua]

One thing I learned in life is nothing is a waste of time. If you are investing your time and efforts into something you will definitely learn out of it and any failed attempt will let you know that this ain't worked for you. Thus I don't think that you are wasting time. You will be more experienced and will see which strategies worked for you. I cannot be very particular about the size of investments but we all can try and make an experience for sure.

 

[David18]

It seams that long term investments are tailored for you.
The market is low, and there are plenty of stocks which
you can buy at redicilously low price and double or even
triple your investment in just a few years.

 

[d08]

An experienced trader attempting a new method would test with real money & small size because backtesting on a computer is inaccurate imo.

You'd recognize the problem with this if you ever looked at testing results.

Live testing something for months doesn't give you the real picture because the sample size is too small. Market conditions vary and some only happen once in a decade. Testing something in a certain market and assuming it "works" is a mistake.

I've seen so many strategies that absolutely kill during low vol bull markets and completely collapse 2008-09 or this year. Without looking at data, the discretionary trader would have no idea.

 

[Tall Mike]

It seams that long term investments are tailored for you.
The market is low, and there are plenty of stocks which
you can buy at redicilously low price and double or even
triple your investment in just a few years.

The market is low? You do realize we are only off like 100 points or so from all-time highs in the SPX right? lol

 

[David18]

The market is low? You do realize we are only off like 100 points or so from all-time highs in the SPX right? lol

You are right, the s&p500 has recovered (most high-tech stocks are now high)
but there are plenty of stocks which are very low, for example: RCL, UAL, RTX, ...

 

[SimpleMeLike]

If you are not a quant, you have next to zero chance of making it as a trader.

fractalize,

No disrespect to you and that is a good post

Are you 100% sure you are accurate on this statement? This is a very powerful and influential statement you are making that could really lead an inexperienced trader down the wrong path.

Perhaps you want to re-state this statement beginning with In My Opinion..........

 

[fractalize]

Live testing something for months doesn't give you the real picture because the sample size is too small.

Live testing (small size) gives you a picture of where (or if) your orders might get filled. In many cases, a backtesting model can't be trusted without this live data, so live and backtesting should be combined. Once you're able to build a single strategy with that information, you can then build a strategy farm. That's a whole different ballgame. You have to be some form of a quant.