Am I Wasting My Time?

[wrbtrader]

You cant predict when the big winning periods will come. Otherwise hedge funds wouldnt trade through those periods of losing months. They would just stop and wait. Same applies to smaller traders. Unless you have a highly monthly win rate you never know when those winning periods will come, you could be waiting a long time. Lumpy trading profits are not predictable like other seasonal businesses, like retail shops, where large profits are almost guaranteed to come every Xmas.

Actually, there are institutional trading firms that do in fact trade something like Corn, Coffee, Wheat, Soybeans and so on...

They in fact use seasonal tendencies in their trading and overall do very well with it. Yet, I'm not sure about hedge funds.

Those trading firms work directly with Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, ADM, Glencore International, Bunge and others to ensure they got it right...seasonal products stats are lining up with their predictive models.

Yet, I'm sure if/when something goes wrong with the weather or geo-political event here and there to throw off the trades...resulting in losses or smaller than expected profits.

wrbtrader

 

[Snuskpelle]

How does one sort out losers and trolls? That seems to come with either disclosure, which does not happen, or by feel over many years observing folks here.

This ended up being larger than intended and is off topic, but posting anyway:

A third (very common) category: Faker. Pretending to do well because psychologically protective reasons or being there to sell a service (the malevolent kind). For the former, 1 + 1 = 3 if you follow their logic over a longer time period, assuming you don't find out sooner. For service sellers, you should pretty much assume they're BS until shown otherwise.

For losers, you can dig in the journals of some to quite effectively judge (have a look at the last pages of my most recent one just to make a point). In other instances, it's mostly explicit or implicit in what people write on the whole.

Troll is a different thing entirely. It's usually referring to twisted individuals trying to stir up anger just for the heck of it, or trying to waste people's time; it's usually quite easy to identify, although there are some more rare subtle ones. Possibly this term is used here sometimes when faker would be more appropriate.

 

[nursebee]

Well I think I am wasting my time participating in this topic for this poster.

 

[smallfil]

Actually, there are institutional trading firms that do in fact trade something like Corn, Coffee, Wheat, Soybeans and so on...

They in fact use seasonal tendencies in their trading and overall do very well with it. Yet, I'm not sure about hedge funds.

wrbtrader

That approach has validity in it but, would require a lot of work. For that reason, institutions with their deep pockets are able to pay for all that research.

 

[murray t turtle]

Depends. Especially relative value strategies need a bit more capital in order to establish dollar neutrality...but I agree...less is more in the beginning

%%
Adding to the complexity;
WSJ tends to promote low pe stuff/ but the problem with that; dow tends to have low pe + goes lower/LOL.
Adding to the complexity; I still hate the idea dow outperformed spy + qqq[one day] last week I was not even in dow/LOL...………………………………………………………………………………………...

 

[wrbtrader]

That approach has validity in it but, would require a lot of work. For that reason, institutions with their deep pockets are able to pay for all that research.

Bingo...

We retailers don't have access to that type of connection with those moving the products...the supply / demand info.

Yet, if we retailers did have access to that info...I'm sure all of us will trade those seasonal commodities in comparison to what we're currently trading.

wrbtrader

 

[Sekiyo]

Bingo...

We retailers don't have access to that type of connection with those moving the products...the supply / demand info.

Yet, if we retailers did have access to that info...I'm sure all of us will trade those seasonal commodities in comparison to what we're currently trading.

wrbtrader

Retail doesn’t care about supply / demand.
There are informations available about it.
But no one’s willing to leave the chart.
Their home and their computer.

 

[wrbtrader]

Retail doesn’t care about supply / demand.
There are informations available about it.
But no one’s willing to leave the chart.

I care about supply / demand. If I didn't, I wouldn't mention it.

Yet, as I'm sure you've notice...most prefer to instead focus all their attention on the charts or whatever it is that they're trading.

wrbtrader

 

[Gaslight Capital]

First understand that you are posing the question in a forum well populated with losers and trolls.

I thought I was the only one who noticed.

How does one sort out losers and trolls?

You can tell by the questions they ask, the answers they give, and their attitude in the asking and the answering. When reading many of their posts, I almost hear them speaking in the same vain, faux confident voice of Ted Baxter from the old Mary Tyler Moore show.

 

[MrMuppet]

Bingo...

We retailers don't have access to that type of connection with those moving the products...the supply / demand info.

Yet, if we retailers did have access to that info...I'm sure all of us will trade those seasonal commodities in comparison to what we're currently trading.

wrbtrader

If you retailers had access, you blew up even faster. Members of congress are allowed to trade based on inside information and when you look at their portfolios 90% of them still suck.

https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/senatetrading

So don't you think you'd make any money just because you can take a sip of the fountain first.
Trading is about finding and understanding a niche and manage the portfolios risk in a way that you can exploit price dislocations that only you can see without blowing up.