Am I wasting my time backtesting my strat?

easymon1 said:
win ratio is of small concern compared to what happen's when you are wrong, imho.
over the range of losses between -0.5% and -6%, what's haps trader?
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It is always a 6% hard stop, I only get out when it gets hit. I have a take profit system in place and my average win is 18%. So as I said I could lose 10 trade in a row. But no matter what I'll keep trading and the real problem would come if the volatility just dries up all of a sudden. That would be the end of me.

10 losses is nothing if I win 14 trades out of the next 20 trade. 0.94^16*1.18^14= +277%.

So yeah the risk is really present if bitcoin stops moving. Which is possible. I see it as a possible way to get a great return with limited risk. If I was a pro with a real account no way I would be so aggressive. That's why I am developing other strategies right now. One for long time frame horizon over multiple asset classes risking around 1%-1.5% per trade. And a short time frame strat with 0.5% risk per trade.I'll put a couple thousands in the latter saffer strategies once they are ready.
 
Genevian Speculator said:
BTC is thin aur. There is no underlying. Institutions stay away from it so should you. How can you decide the price of something whats value is absolutely only an idea?
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Yep the very attractive idea of having 100% control over your wealth without the possibility of the government fucking with it either with seizure or devaluation.

Elon Musk could die of a heart attack tomorrow, the USD might eventually lose its status as the trade currency of the world. France may go bankrupt, etc, etc. BTC is the only thing that as any REAL fundamentals in the financial market. It is the only thing human error cant fuck with.

But hey I don't care that much, that's just my opinion why its going up. Moves are sick and its trending like a mother fucker. You don't get 4 months long chop like other assets. That's the only reason I care honestly.
 
DROBBY said:
And a short time frame strat with 0.5% risk per trade.I'll put a couple thousands in the latter saffer strategies once they are ready.
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i like the cut of your jib my man.

as far as .5% risk per trade and all that, you know what you like. that's all that counts. i like a 2%, takes numerous losses to take down an account. i tend to be hands on...https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-10#post-5014580
https://tradingsetupsreview.com/10-ways-traders-take-profit/

here's some boring shite on that topic for when you got a minute
cued...

and yep, agree 100%, bitcorn Chart handles like a well behaved mosheen, i don't trade it but can see that entry triggers etc would appear to work quite nicely, thank you. You might even consider benchmarking the other 'mainstream' charts by comparison to btc for now and the forseeable future. mainstream being non-manipulated, like oh gold, silver, enron, you know the old tried and trues. cheers and no kidding, look forward to your great good fortune.

what links recomend for bitcorn traders and trading? Thx.
from sr's vid...
trading power of 1%.jpg
 
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DROBBY said:
It is always a 6% hard stop, I only get out when it gets hit. I have a take profit system in place and my average win is 18%. So as I said I could lose 10 trade in a row. But no matter what I'll keep trading and the real problem would come if the volatility just dries up all of a sudden. That would be the end of me.

10 losses is nothing if I win 14 trades out of the next 20 trade. 0.94^16*1.18^14= +277%.

So yeah the risk is really present if bitcoin stops moving. Which is possible. I see it as a possible way to get a great return with limited risk. If I was a pro with a real account no way I would be so aggressive. That's why I am developing other strategies right now. One for long time frame horizon over multiple asset classes risking around 1%-1.5% per trade. And a short time frame strat with 0.5% risk per trade.I'll put a couple thousands in the latter saffer strategies once they are ready.
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Just 1 question for you.
What is the chance of 11 losses in a row (that situation will take half of your all capital if the loss is 6% per rade), if you probability of winning is 60% ? Let's assume in 1000 trades.
 
MichalTr said:
Just 1 question for you.
What is the chance of 11 losses in a row (that situation will take half of your all capital if the loss is 6% per rade), if you probability of winning is 60% ? Let's assume in 1000 trades.
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What about we check for 60 losses in a row instead of 11?

Lets say I am not as lucky anymore and I am only right 40% of the time now.

So 60 6% loss in a row followed by 40 consecutive win. This is simply impossible but lets just magnify the terrible losing streak effect for our purpose.

so 0.94^60 = 2.44% of my account left. fucking hell ouch!

Now lets start our epic winning streak

0.0244*1.18^40 = 1832% gain.

As you probably know the order in which you multiply stuff does not affect the end result. All that really matter is this ; will bitcoin keep moving as it does right now. If not I am 100% fucked. But thats 1000$ I am willing to lose and far from being all my trading capital. I just know I can potentially make a very good ROI based on a calculated risk.
 
easymon1 said:
i like the cut of your jib my man.

as far as .5% risk per trade and all that, you know what you like. that's all that counts. i like a 2%, takes numerous losses to take down an account. i tend to be hands on...https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-10#post-5014580
https://tradingsetupsreview.com/10-ways-traders-take-profit/

here's some boring shite on that topic for when you got a minute
cued...

and yep, agree 100%, bitcorn Chart handles like a well behaved mosheen, i don't trade it but can see that entry triggers etc would appear to work quite nicely, thank you. You might even consider benchmarking the other 'mainstream' charts by comparison to btc for now and the forseeable future. mainstream being non-manipulated, like oh gold, silver, enron, you know the old tried and trues. cheers and no kidding, look forward to your great good fortune.

what links recomend for bitcorn traders and trading? Thx.
from sr's vid...
View attachment 227180
More...

Thanks mate I'll have a look later on. As far as link to trade bitcoin? I don't have any, I bought a trading program full of basic crap I could have found on youtube and I figured out a simple strategy using moving average crossover(with my own little twists).

If you want to know just put a 21e on your chart with a 33 SMA. You'll figure it out instantly. The 377e on the 3h(use multi timeframe EMA indicator) is used in my strat too.
 
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