am i the only one or are there others who find it easier to pick tops than bottoms

[MarkBrown]

yeah this little book written so long ago yet still holds true today.

i just read the book again this morning and chapter 4 clearly spells out why so many can not win at trading. written so long ago yet greed will blind those who are desperate for money. this was a great gift and insight of the mind of an inverted thinker. the potato raiser would have made a great day trader, for it is that rhythmic inversion that will reward you.

sadly this jewel will be lost in the zillions of other post made in this mud pit of a forum.

 

[MarkBrown]

i am a day trader in forex where one day is equal to four NYSE days.
so i am talking about swing tops and bottoms

thing about a swing top or bottom is they are after the fact. what you should master is entering reversion to the mean positions on the spike of the top and bottom. entry is everything in trading if you are going to risk little and win big.

you were offering people to come to india, to do so it would take about 3 months worth of immunization shots. i got about 30 shots to go to haiti and the nurse told me it would take twice that many shots for india. have you thought about coming to london, i get over there from time to time or better yet america?

 

[Turveyd]

I agree but each individual trade is 50/50! Each trade is unique!i the chance of something happening could be greater but uncertainty is reality

No that's like saying if you walk across a busy motorway at night wearing black, blindfolded, cause the outcome is either live or die that you have a 50/50 chance of making it, really 5% chance.

 

[Turveyd]

A smart trader always takes in consideration that he should be able to continue trading the same size after a XX% drawdown. Drawdowns are part of trading, and always happen. So the problem you described will never happen. It happens with stupid or overleveraged people (not traders).

So the statement "lose 50% and you have to make 100% again" is not valid for a smart and responsible trader. You should always incorporate some extra money, just in case...

I like to trade near max leverage, to me anything else is a waste of time, i use margin as an emergency sl, constanly changing size.

But 3K account not 3Mil account, get hard oe don't work in the porn business as they aay.

 

[slugar]

No that's like saying if you walk across a busy motorway at night wearing black, blindfolded, cause the outcome is either live or die that you have a 50/50 chance of making it, really 5% chance.

Disagree it’s like a great basketball player that shoots 80 percent from the free throw line for the season but each free throw is still only 50 percent! Only outcome of an individual trade is either it works or it doesn’t! 50 percent

 

[Turveyd]

Disagree it’s like a great basketball player that shoots 80 percent from the free throw line for the season but each free throw is still only 50 percent! Only outcome of an individual trade is either it works or it doesn’t! 50 percent

Sorry but that is the most moronic thing I've ever heard, just because there are only 2 outcomes does not making it 50/50, I'd say go back to school but guessing american so just don't bother.

If your right, flip a coin, heads long, tails short, set tp at 100, sl at 10, 50% will make 100, 50% lose 10, millionaire in no time.

 

[slugar]

Sorry but that is the most moronic thing I've ever heard, just because there are only 2 outcomes does not making it 50/50, I'd say go back to school but guessing american so just don't bother.

If your right, flip a coin, heads long, tails short, set tp at 100, sl at 10, 50% will make 100, 50% lose 10, millionaire in no time.

Yep I’m moronic and you’re an insulting idiot! I could care less where you received your education but my American education has served me very well!

 

[Turveyd]

Yep I’m moronic and you’re an insulting idiot! I could care less where you received your education but my American education has served me very well!

But you have no understanding of Statistics / Probability, your american schooling failed you, you believe in LUCK, epic failed you!

 

[slugar]

But you have no understanding of Statistics / Probability, your american schooling failed you, you believe in LUCK, epic failed you!

That’s funny I haven’t mentioned luck one time! A person can make a killing in the markets and be right only 1/2 the time! The chance of my trading method could be right 65 percent of the time over a large sample of trades but the next trade either works or it doesn’t one of two choices so I’m thinking you great education in whatever superior country your from wasn’t so great!

 

[Turveyd]

That’s funny I haven’t mentioned luck one time! A person can make a killing in the markets and be right only 1/2 the time! The chance of my trading method could be right 65 percent of the time over a large sample of trades but the next trade either works or it doesn’t one of two choices so I’m thinking you great education in whatever superior country your from wasn’t so great!

You start off right at 65% chance of profit, then go to it either works or it doesn't, so 50/50, no the chance is 65% it works, 35% it doesn't work, just cause there are 2 out comes, Yes or No doesn't mean it ever every becomes 50/50.

My method, has an approx 80% win rate, so approx 80% of the time, it's a profit and 20% it's a loss, it doesn't become 50/50 due to only being 2 damn out comes. ( and it jumps to 80% loss rate, when I'm trading badly/against )

Every time you cross the road, is it 50/50 you get to the other side alive ??